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Saturday links: making the switch

Abnormal Returns

economy continues to get more energy efficient. nytimes.com) The TGL is set to launch in 2025. abnormalreturns.com) Podcast links: the introvert economy. Ports need to accommodate them. ft.com) A history of bridge collisions. theconversation.com) Swapping trucks for barges to transport goods. nytimes.com) Energy The U.S.

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Monday links: trying to keep their jobs

Abnormal Returns

downtownjoshbrown.com) Companies It's hard to believe, but companies are already hiring for 2025 internships. bbc.com) How young Chinese are dealing with a lethargic economy. (awealthofcommonsense.com) It was hard to lose money in 2023, but here are five ways it may have happened.

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FOMC Projections and Press Conference

Calculated Risk

Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed close to FOMC expectations. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2024 2025 2026 Mar 2024 2.0 Statement here. Here are the projections. Dec 2023 1.2 The unemployment rate was at 3.9% Dec 2023 4.0

Banking 107
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FOMC Minutes: Staff No Longer Predicts Recession; "Upside Risks to Inflation"

Calculated Risk

Since the emergence of stress in the banking sector in mid-March, indicators of spending and real activity had come in stronger than anticipated; as a result, the staff no longer judged that the economy would enter a mild recession toward the end of the year. percent, and core inflation was expected to be 2.3 emphasis added

Economy 98
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FOMC Minutes: Staff Predicts Recession Starting in Q4; Future Monetary Policy "less certain"

Calculated Risk

Real GDP growth over 2024 and 2025 was projected to be below the staff's estimate of potential output growth. The unemployment rate was forecast to increase this year, to peak next year, and then to start declining gradually in 2025.

Economics 136
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FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Expected

Calculated Risk

Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed better than the FOMC expected, and inflation was slightly below expectations. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 June 2023 0.7 For review, here are the June projections.

Banking 107
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FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Expected

Calculated Risk

Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed better than the FOMC expected, and inflation was lower than expected. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 2026 Dec 2023 2.5 The BEA reported real GDP increased 3.1% Sept 2023 1.9

Banking 74