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Saturday links: making the switch

Abnormal Returns

economy continues to get more energy efficient. nytimes.com) Long-term renewable energy storage is needed, but the economics are uncertain. nytimes.com) The TGL is set to launch in 2025. abnormalreturns.com) Podcast links: the introvert economy. (theconversation.com) Swapping trucks for barges to transport goods.

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FOMC Minutes: Staff Predicts Recession Starting in Q4; Future Monetary Policy "less certain"

Calculated Risk

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the May FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year, followed by a moderately paced recovery. emphasis added

Economics 138
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FOMC Minutes: Staff Predicts Mild Recession; Additional Increases in Fed Funds Rate "Appropriate"

Calculated Risk

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions, would lead to a mild recession starting later this year , followed by a moderately paced recovery.

Economics 117
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FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Expected

Calculated Risk

The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). At their September meeting, Fed officials are likely to make fairly straightforward revisions to their economic projections that reflect these recent developments. Economic projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 110
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FOMC Minutes: Staff No Longer Predicts Recession; "Upside Risks to Inflation"

Calculated Risk

Excerpt: The economic forecast prepared by the staff for the July FOMC meeting was stronger than the June projection. However, the staff continued to expect that real GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 would run below their estimate of potential output growth, leading to a small increase in the unemployment rate relative to its current level.

Economy 98
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Spending still too hot and debt-limit negotiations continue: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook

Nationwide Financial

trillion debt ceiling limit through January 2025. trillion debt ceiling limit through January 2025, after the next presidential election. This would lead to a further tightening of fiscal policy which will weigh on economic growth — in addition to expected sharp declines for equity prices and much higher interest rates.

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FOMC Preview: Uncertainty, Likely 25bp Hike, Maybe Pause

Calculated Risk

On March 7th, Fed Chair Powell said : … the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. There is uncertainty regarding FOMC policy this month due to the banking issues. For review, here are the December projections.

Banking 94