Sat.May 11, 2024 - Fri.May 17, 2024

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What Stagflation?

The Big Picture

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. Unemployment remains at 60-year lows, and Inflation has plummeted from 9% down to the 3s. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Ma

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Monday links: destinations unknown

Abnormal Returns

Netflix Don't be surprised if Netflix ($NFLX) starts airing NFL games. (spyglass.org) How Netflix ($NFLX) became the future of television. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) BREIT How has BREIT shrugged off the downturn in commercial real estate? (insights.finominal.com) Why private real estate may not belong in a structure like BREIT. (citywire.com) Fund management Why closed-end funds can trade above NAV for extended periods of time.

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DoL’s Retirement Security Rule & PTE 2020-02 Amendment: What Advisers Need to Know Now About Giving Rollover Advice After Sept 23, 2024

Nerd's Eye View

On April 25, 2024, the Department of Labor (DoL) issued the final version of its Retirement Security Rule (the "Final Rule"), which imposes an ERISA fiduciary standard "that applies uniformly to all investments that retirement investors may make with respect to their retirement accounts ". The new rule represents the latest attempt by regulators to define the types of individuals and advice that are subject to a fiduciary obligation, following on the heels of the SEC's Regulation Best Interest (

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Diversification is About Decades

A Wealth of Common Sense

A lot of investors have abandoned international diversification (or at least strongly considered it) in recent years. I understand why this is happening. The U.S. stock market has destroyed all comers ever since the Great Financial Crisis ended. Since 2009, a total U.S. stock market index fund is up more than 660% while a total international index fund is up more like 180%.

Marketing 138
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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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MiB: Savita Subramanian, US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, Bank of America

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Savita Subramanian , head of US Equity and Quantitative strategy at Bank of America. She also leads the firm’s environmental, social and governance research. She has been a ranked analyst in the Institutional Investor survey for the last eleven years. Prior to joining the firm in 2001, Subramanian was an analyst at Scudder Kemper Investments in New York and San Francisco.

Banking 170

More Trending

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#FA Success Ep 385: Unblocking Clients That Won’t Implement With A Journey Of Financial Health, With Danielle Howard

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 385th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Danielle Howard. Danielle is the owner of Wealth By Design, a hybrid advisory firm based in Glenwood Springs, Colorado, that oversees about $35 million in assets under advisement for 35 client households. What's unique about Danielle, though, is how she has created a process she calls "Financial Fingerprints To Footprints ", where she helps clients who are struggling to implem

Clients 235
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Anthony Stich Joins MarketCounsel

Wealth Management

Stich, who left digital custodian Entrustody in January, joins MarketCounsel this week as executive managing director and will take over a lot of the operational responsibilities from President and CEO Brian Hamburger.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Softer Economic Conditions Ahead

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in April to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from last month to 101.8. Overall, the LEI continues to signal softer economic conditions lay ahead for the U.S. economy.

Economics 127
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Sunday links: selling a product

Abnormal Returns

Markets No news is good news for the stock market. (tker.co) The stock market has gone nowhere the past 10 weeks. (allstarcharts.com) What Wall Street jargon really means. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Companies Apple ($AAPL) is now taking AI seriously. (nytimes.com) Adobe ($ADBE) is walking a fine line when it comes to AI. (theatlantic.com) Funds Mutual funds just keep closing.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (May 18-19)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study indicates that while overall social media engagement for financial services companies was down in 2023 compared to the previous year, firms boosted their engagement through posts that were entirely original content (rather than sharing third-party content), spoke to the firm's or advisor's principles (with posts responding to current news topics lagging), an

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Gambler’s Fallacy in the Stock Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

These are the trailing total returns for the U.S. stock market1 over various time frames: Year to date: +11% One year: +30% Five years: +94% Ten years: +223% Fifteen years: +679% Not bad considering we’ve had two bear markets in the past four years. If you put $10,000 into the U.S. stock market five years ago, your money has essentially doubled: Now look at the returns by year: 2019: +31% 2020: +21% 2021: +26% 2022.

Marketing 127
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Live From Wealth Management EDGE: SMAs, Inflation and the Fed

Wealth Management

Speakers at Wealth Management EDGE at The Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood Beach, Fla., discuss how investing strategies, including SMAs and how inflation and the Fed are impacting investing.

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Friday links: a wide range of outcomes

Abnormal Returns

Markets Utility stocks are having a moment. (barrons.com) Bonds seem to have bottomed. (allstarcharts.com) Strategy Big round numbers don't matter unless you hold on. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) There are two approaches to investing. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) It's easy to forget the pain of volatility. (wggtb.substack.com) Venture capital Figma shareholders are getting an opportunity to sell stock, post-Adobe deal.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 138: Crafting Your Own Stop-Doing List To Create Capacity For What Really Matters

Nerd's Eye View

In the initial stages of their careers, many financial advicers find that, with little revenue coming in and less than a full load of client-facing work to do, they spend the majority of their time on operations and marketing as they try to establish their practice. As a result, an advicer often has the capacity to say "yes" to any opportunity that comes along as they try to keep busy and (hopefully) improve their cash flow.

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Heavy Truck Sales Increased in April

Calculated Risk

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 126
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Report: Half of Advisors to Recommend Crypto in the Next 12 Months

Wealth Management

The introduction of bitcoin ETFs is fueling increased advisor engagement with digital assets, according to a Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals survey.

Assets 127
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Podcast links: reviewing products

Abnormal Returns

Business Logan Bartlett talks with Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. (podcasts.apple.com) Sam Dogen talks with Emily Luk, Co-Founder and CEO of Plenty. (sites.libsyn.com) Private credit Matt Reustle talks the evolution of private credit with Armen Panossian is the co-CEO of Oaktree. (joincolossus.com) Cameron Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk about whether private credit is all that special.

Banking 240
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Social Media: The Value of Seeking Alpha’s Recommendations

Alpha Architect

The finding that the recommendations from SA articles resulted in statistically significant risk-adjusted alphas (returns unexplained by conventional academic models using factors such as the market, size, value, momentum, profitability, and quality for equity portfolios) is surprising given that the empirical evidence shows how difficult it is for institutional investors such as mutual funds to show outperformance beyond the randomly expected (as can be seen in the annual SPIVA Scorecards) beca

Media 117
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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.9% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through April2024.

Food 124
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Wealth Management EDGE: RIAs Need Organic Growth, Diverse Clientele To Compete In 'Unprecedented' Sellers’ Market

Wealth Management

Numerous speakers at Wealth Management EDGE said buyers would want to see that its AUM wasn’t primarily tied to a small number of clients and that its growth wasn’t spurred mainly by the market.

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Longform links: inherent instability

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Michael Muthukrishna author of "A Theory of Everyone: The New Science of Who We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We’re Going." (behavioralscientist.org) An excerpt from "Magic Pill: The Extraordinary Benefits and Disturbing Risks of the New Weight-Loss Drugs" by Johann Hari. (tim.blog) A Q&A with Zoë Schlanger author of "The Light Eaters: How the Unseen World of Plant Intelligence Offers a New Understanding of Life on Earth.

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Fourth Consecutive Weekly Gain

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain after notching a new all-time high this week. The index is currently up 11.82% year to date and has recorded a new all-time high 23 times this year.

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NY Fed Q1 Report: Household Debt and Delinquency Rates Increased

Calculated Risk

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rose by $184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69 trillion.

Economics 122
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The AI Assembly at Wealth Management EDGE: The Future of AI

Wealth Management

The impact that artificial intelligence will have on wealth management drew a large crowd at the Wealth Management EDGE conference at the Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood Beach, Fla.

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Research links: good enough research

Abnormal Returns

Modeling How much can machine learning techniques help in model making? (aqr.com) Fancier models don't necessarily estimate the ERP better. (alphaarchitect.com) The case for ensemble models. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Can AI replace stock analysts? (papers.ssrn.com) Research Crashes are the bane of momentum investors. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Why time horizon matters when it comes to investing in TIPS.

Investing 224
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Household Debt Rises to $17.69 Trillion

Advisor Perspectives

Household debt rose by $184 billion (1.09%) to $17.69 trillion in Q1 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by mortgage and auto loan balances. Meanwhile, credit card balances declined, as is typical for the first quarter.

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Tuesday: PPI, Fed Chair Powell, Q1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

Calculated Risk

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: What You See Today Won't Necessarily Be What You See Tomorrow With essentially nothing on the event calendar to start the new week, it was fair to expect a continuation of the same sideways drift that characterized last week. It's not the future can ever be predicted when it comes to markets, but we can say the flat trajectory is the least surprising outcome for Monday.

Banking 118
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Wealth Management EDGE: Clients Are Too Worried About the Economy

Wealth Management

Despite persistent concerns from clients about the state of the economy, indicators are either fine or improving, according to Cetera Chief Market Strategist Brian Klimke.