Tue.Jan 17, 2023

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“A Hurricane is Coming”

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►Earnings – “Expect an in-line 4Q, but it’s earnings recession ex-Energy” ►Jamie Dimon’s Hurricane – “The U.S. economy currently remains strong with consumers still spending excess.

Economy 245
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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Are Declining Interest Rates Responsible for Stock Growth? While declining interest rates have been responsible for stock growth (at least at the extremes), interest rate changes don’t always determine our investment destiny. What does though? Fundamentals: ( Of Dollars And Data ) see also The Long-Term Wins : These periods do seem arbitrary but the changing of the calendar from one year to the next offers a good chance for market nerds like myself

Startup 243
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Tuesday links: drawing causal links

Abnormal Returns

Markets Market breadth has been historically positive. (quantifiableedges.com) 2022 in review with charts including the good times for cash and commodities. (bilello.blog) Rates Allocators can now meet goals with bonds and not rely so much on stocks. (wsj.com) Where do high-yield spreads stand today? (mailchi.mp) Strategy Unexpected things happen in the markets all the time.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Nextera, Corning & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Research links: trend-following principles

Abnormal Returns

Retirement How the rise of target-date funds affect the markets. (papers.ssrn.com) How Canadian pension funds manage money differently. (caia.org) Retirement participants who use managed accounts were the least likely to trade and the most likely to seek advice during the Covid period. (papers.ssrn.com) Research The illiquidity premium is theory not a 'law of nature.

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Update: The Inland Empire

Calculated Risk

Way back in 2006 I disagreed with some analysts on the outlook for the Inland Empire in California. I wrote : As the housing bubble unwinds, housing related employment will fall; and fall dramatically in areas like the Inland Empire. The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local economy will be. So I think some pundits have it backwards: Instead of a strong local economy keeping housing afloat, I think the bursting housing bubble will significantly impact

Economy 135
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YCharts: With An Eye On Fees And Returns, More Clients Are Looking For a New Advisor

Wealth Management

As portfolio performance becomes the top concern among clients, one in four have either thought about switching, or switched, financial advisors in the last three years, a YCharts survey found.

Clients 133
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7 Things You Need to Know About a Simple IRA for 2023

Good Financial Cents

Most people have never heard of a SIMPLE IRA and are curious to know the rules, limits and how it differs from a 401(k). A SIMPLE IRA sounds “simple” to setup but is it really that easy? And how does it compare to the 401k and other retirement plans that exist? We’ll answer that and more as we take a deep dive into the Simple IRA rules and limits.

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Tax Advantages Are a Selling Point for Investment in CRE. How Should HNW Investors Think About Them?

Wealth Management

WMRE asked Michael Osherovitz, FTI’s new head of its private client tax group, about the biggest issues facing HNW investors and family offices who have real estate holdings.

Taxes 120
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Long-Term Look at the CPI

Advisor Perspectives

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for December puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 6.45%. It is well above the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War and above its 10-year moving average, now at 2.5%.

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10 Must Reads for CRE Investors Today (Jan. 17, 2023)

Wealth Management

The rising cost of interest rate caps could precipitate some real estate investors who can no longer afford the hedges to sell their assets, reports The Wall Street Journal. Multi-Housing News has a special report on the state of affordable housing policy. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

Assets 115
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5 Lessons From an Awful Year For Financial Markets

A Wealth of Common Sense

Most investors would probably like to move on and forget about 2022 when it comes to market performance. It was an all-time bad year for the markets. But there were some valuable lessons in the carnage. You learn more about yourself during a bear market than a bull market. This piece I wrote at Fortune delves into 5 lessons for investors from 2022. * Last year was one of the worst for financial markets in modern eco.

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Celebrity Estates: Anne Heche and the Roles of Trustees and Administrators

Wealth Management

After Anne Heche's death, her son, Homer, and former partner, James Tupper, fought in court over who would be her estate administrator and guardian of her youngest son, Atlas.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Contracted Sharply in January

Advisor Perspectives

This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at -32.9 was a decrease of 21.7 from the previous month's -11.2. This was the index's lowest reading since May 2020 and the fifth worst reading in survey history. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of -8.7.

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Animal Spirits: Is a Soft Landing Inflationary?

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by American Century Investments: See here for more information on American Centuries Short Duration Strategic Income ETF On today’s show, we discuss: BlackRock vs. Goldman in the fight over 60/40 2023 was a record year for US dividends Neil Dutta and Conor Sen on the chances of a US soft landing New York manufacturing activity plunges to lowest since May 2020 Egg prices hav.

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Seven Must Reads for CRE Investors Today (Jan. 18, 2023)

Wealth Management

Commercial Observer looks at why proptech VCs view multifamily as the most attractive sector to focus on right now. In 2022, China has experienced its first drop in real estate investment in more than 20 years, reports Reuters. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

Investing 104
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Homebuilder Price Cuts

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Homebuilder Price Cuts A brief excerpt: A short note on homebuilder price cuts courtesy of Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!): From Palacios on Twitter : Nationally, just 16% of home builders haven't had to drop prices since the market peaked in March 2022.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Morgan Stanley's Record Wealth Management Revenue Boosts 2022 Performance

Wealth Management

In a call detailing Morgan Stanley’s Q4 earnings, Chairman and CEO James Gorman said he expected the company’s wealth and investment management businesses to become a larger portion of the firm’s pre-tax profits.

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Expected Returns for Private Equity Will Probably Suck

Alpha Architect

The illiquid nature of the asset class makes the demystifying of private equity returns difficult to achieve under any circumstances, but the framework presented in this article should move the reader closer to the goal. Expected Returns for Private Equity Will Probably Suck was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Assets 99
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Why Goldman Sachs Is Far, Far Behind Morgan Stanley

Wealth Management

Its faltering attempts to develop a stream of steady, repeatable revenue stand in stark contrast to its rival’s resilience in asset management.

Assets 109
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The Two Client Questions Advisors Must Be Able to Answer

Advisor Perspectives

As a financial coach whose mission is to talk fee-only advisors “off the fence” of procrastination, I frequently answer two questions.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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The History of the Currencies of the World

Wealth Management

You can tell a lot about a nation by whom it chooses to honor on its currency.

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How To Use Money Journaling: Improve Your Mindset And Your Finances

Clever Girl Finance

Do you love to crack open the spine of a new journal ? There are various ways to get into this hobby—dream journaling, gratitude journaling, book journaling. But have you heard of money journaling? Well, it can help you give your finances and your mindset a mega boost. And in this article, we will go over how exactly money journaling can work for you!

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Blackstone's $4B California Deal Riles University Unions

Wealth Management

The groups are contending that the relationship with the private equity firm will worsen the housing shortage for students and employees.

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Wednesday: Retail Sales, PPI, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Confidence, Fed's Beige Book

Calculated Risk

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Old Range is New Again as Markets Wait For Mid-Tier Data By the middle of December, bond yields made a convincing move down from decades-long highs and settled in a sideways range on CPI/Fed week. We re-entered that same sideways range after last week's CPI (3.42-3.62 in 10yr yields), and now wait for a slew of mid-tier reports to see if they're up to the task of informing a new range breakout. [ 30 year fixed 6.17% ] emphasis added Wednesday: • At 7:0

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Describing the depth and foundation of financial planning

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Johan Fanggara, CFP I love architecture and interior design. It’s one of my most-watched genres on Netflix. In fact, I often position myself as a financial architect because I help young families design and build their financial foundations. Those words are purposefully chosen to describe a process and journey. Whenever a client decides to work with me, we build their dreams together, making sure they come to fruition.

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Design Your Website to Appeal to Multiple Audiences

Advisor Perspectives

It is a challenge to design a website that addresses the needs and questions of multiple client types.

Clients 98
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25 Things To Do Instead Of Watching TV!

Clever Girl Finance

Let's talk about things to do instead of watching tv! There’s nothing wrong with kicking back and catching up on your favorite shows, but too much of anything is unhealthy. When working towards your goals or looking to achieve overall wellness, watching television may not be the best use of your time. Television consumption usually doesn’t require much cognitive effort and it’s a way of shutting down rather than being productive and getting things done.