Mon.Nov 27, 2023

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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

This weekend Jeff Sommer discussed a DFA research paper on market timing; both are well worth your time to read. The broad strokes are: Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any) do it consistently well. Not only are the odds stacked against you, but very often systems that have successfully timed the market have been simply lucky, and do not succeed in out-of-sample tests.

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Monday links: jobless recoveries

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Why market timing is so difficult. (ritholtz.com) Diversification is easy in theory, difficult in practice. (pictureperfectportfolios.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is now the biggest private delivery company in the U.S. (wsj.com) Amazon ($AMZN) no longer inspires fear in the health care space. (bloomberg.com) Finance Why you should expect more bank consolidation.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning reads: • How to Tweak Your Investments for a More Normal Market : Convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA; Higher interest rates means cash gets a respectable yield; Revisit concentrated positions; consider adding international stocks; buy longer-dated Treasuries. ( Barron’s ) • Economists May Have Been Flying Blind All Along : Declining response rates to official surveys raise the possibility that government and central bank officials have been making decisions bas

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How Financial Advicers Can Write, Publish, And Distribute Their Own Book To Create A More Effective Impression On Prospective Clients

Nerd's Eye View

One of the main goals of financial advisors who market themselves is to build a foundation of trust with their prospective clients so that they feel comfortable in discussing often-sensitive financial topics and ultimately acting on the advisor's recommendations. The challenge, though, is that advisors usually have only a short amount of time to build this trust, and while advisors can use different channels (e.g., their websites, newsletters, and social media) to demonstrate their expertise, th

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Fiscal Deficits Drive Higher Inflation

Advisor Perspectives

The growth of the federal deficit in the post-COVID era, coupled with the political unwillingness to increase taxes, foretells higher-than-historical inflation rates, according to new research.

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New Home Sales decrease to 679,000 Annual Rate in October; Median New Home Price is Down 18% from the Peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales decrease to 679,000 Annual Rate in October Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 679 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. The next graph shows new home sales for 2022 and 2023 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

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Emerging-Market ETFs Exceed $10B of Inflows This Year

Wealth Management

Net deposits into ETFs that invest across developing nations as well as those that target specific countries totaled $766.1 million in the week ended Nov. 24, building on gains of $1.57 billion in the previous week.

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Market Commentary: Reasons To Be Thankful

Carson Wealth

We hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving holiday with family and friends. We wanted to take some time this week to go over a few reasons for investors to be thankful. Stocks rallied again last week and are now up four weeks in a row. The S&P 500 is up close to 20% on the year, one big reason to be thankful. The economy remains strong, the consumer is healthy, the wall of worry is intact, and manufacturing is bottoming.

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What Advisors Need to Know About Elective Community Property

Wealth Management

Some non-community property states are allowing individuals and families to “opt-in,” providing significant income tax benefits.

Taxes 114
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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A Pep Talk for Financial Advisors on Investing in a Declining Market

XY Planning Network

October ended with the S&P 500, Russell 3000, MSCI World Ex USA, MSCI Emerging Markets, and DJ Global Select REIT in the negative for 1-month and 3-month periods, so some clients will certainly be ready for us to answer the question, “What is it this time?” The beauty of our approach—building investment strategies based on academic research and rebalancing back to the target risk tolerance as markets move—is that we can find comfort in these times by revisiting the core tenets of our belief

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Court Case Threatens Compensation Model for RPAs, Providers

Wealth Management

The Bugielski case concerns whether the plan sponsor had a duty to consider the fee their record keeper received from a brokerage account and managed account provider.

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Weekly Market Insights – November 27, 2023

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

Weekly Market Insights: Short Week Strong For Stocks Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Investor enthusiasm for stocks remained strong last week, buoyed by declining bond yields in a holiday-abbreviated trading week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 1.27%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.00%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.89% for the week.

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Billions Wiped Out as Stock-Safety Trade on Wall Street Misfires

Wealth Management

Rather than give shelter in a stormy season, the largest dividend ETFs have been left behind by a tech-obsessed market whose biggest proxies have surged 15% or more.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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A new twist on momentum strategies: Utilize overlapping momentum portfolios

Alpha Architect

Momentum investors utilize different timeframes to identify high momentum equities: past 6, 9, 12 months as an example. Obviously, there is a significant degree of overlap in momentum stocks identified across various past time frames. However, there has been little research focused on understanding the characteristics of momentum stocks formed on six and 12 months that overlap one another.

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ESG and Passive Investing Do Not Mix

Wealth Management

The complex, long-term nature of sustainable investing makes it inherently an active management discipline.

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24 Fun And Inexpensive Girls Day Out Ideas

Clever Girl Finance

When you’re trying to save money, it can feel like you have to put your life on hold. But just because you’re tightening the purse strings doesn’t mean you have to cut into your social life. Actually, you can still enjoy girls day out ideas and have lots of fun, even when you’re on a tight budget. Table of contents 1. Volunteer together 2.

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Cetera Closes on Avantax Acquisition

Wealth Management

The deal takes Avantax private, and the tax-focused firm will operate as a separate division within Cetera.

Taxes 111
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Software is Eating Financial Advice

The Irrelevant Investor

If an adult from 1990 were dropped into 2023, they would be stunned by how technology has changed the world. We might not have flying cars, but we do have electric ones. We have computers in our pockets that are more powerful than the ones that sent us to the moon. You can see the view from basically any street in the world. Artificial intelligence is real.

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Is a Hedge Fund More Than Its Founder?

Wealth Management

Star money managers are selling up or giving cash back to investors. Turning your hedge fund into a sustainable, growing business is a tall order.

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The Missing Piece to Advisors’ End-Of-Year Planning Strategies

Advisor Perspectives

I'll share the impact healthcare costs have on financial plans, the critical healthcare information to include (such as medical tax deductions and IRMAA), how to budget for costs in a world of variables, and tangible strategies to implement during open enrollment and beyond to ensure clients are on the optimal coverage.

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Talk Your Book: Strategic Income

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by Nuveen: On today’s show, we spoke with Nick Travaglino, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Nuveen to discuss the fixed-income market in 2023. On today’s show, we discuss: Will rates be higher for longer or has consensus changed? An update on the Fed, and a discussion on the next rate hike or cut Mortgage rates and the probability of a housing slowdown.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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New Home Sales Fall More Than Expected in October

Advisor Perspectives

The October release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units. New home sales were down 5.6% month-over-month from a revised rate of 719,000 in September and up 17.7% from one year ago. The median home price is now at $409,300, down 3.0% from September after adjusting for inflation.

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Annuities Are Back in Fashion, But Are They Safe?

Wealth Management

Rising interest rates have spurred a boom in demand, but investors should take note of recent changes in the insurance industry.

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Fundamental Analysis Of Servotech Power Systems – Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis Of Servotech Power Systems: When it comes to investing, many investors tend to focus on well-known companies from the large-cap category. However, small-cap stocks have long been the hidden gems that, if properly selected can offer significant growth potential. One such stock in the small-cap category is Servotech Power Systems.

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TSA: Airline Travel Above 2019 Levels

Calculated Risk

The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 26th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA (Blue). The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is above the level for the same week in 2019 (104% of 2019). (red line) The 7-day average has been above 2019 Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking above pre-pandemic levels.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Just Because You Can, Doesn't Mean You Should

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Portfolio replication is a tricky thing that frequently doesn't work. It can work like with the now closed Alpha Clone ETF. It replicated hedge funds based on stale 13-f data but it worked. The fund must not have gained enough AUM to last but it did work. We look at a lot of different ideas here, whether we are talking about replication or not, not to simply copy what someone else is doing but to see if some random strategy might have some piece of process or an idea to incorporate in a way that

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Options for Changing an Irrevocable Trust

Wealth Management

Irrevocable trusts can't be modified. unless they can.

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World Markets Watchlist: November 27, 2023

Advisor Perspectives

Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through November 27, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 28.18%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 18.99% while France's CAC 40 finished in third with a YTD gain of 9.69%.