Fri.Sep 22, 2023

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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.

Economics 317
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Jeremy Grantham, Bubble Historian

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Valuation 306
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Friday links: more risk and illiquidity

Abnormal Returns

Rates Higher for longer, is the consensus. (wsj.com) Not surprisingly, 30-year mortgage rates are at 23-year highs. (mortgagenewsdaily.com) Who is buying Treasuries at these yields? (ft.com) Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields. (capitalspectator.com) Dumb Money There are no heroes in 'Dumb Money.' (morningstar.com) The so-called bad guys in 'Dumb Money' are stronger than ever.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 23-24)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Investment Adviser Association has petitioned the SEC to ask the regulator to change how it defines a small adviser from one with less than $25 million under management to a firm with 100 or fewer employees. The group argued that this change would help more small firms, which tend not to have the same staffing and resources compared to their larger counterparts, as the

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Podcast links: the crypto crash

Abnormal Returns

Podcasting Jim O'Shaughnessy talks the business of podcasting with Danny Miranda. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Khe Hy talks with Johnny Miller about the attraction of listening to podcast on 2x. (podcasts.apple.com) Zeke Faux Joshua Brown and Michael Batnick talk with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." (youtube.com) Aaron Lammer, Max Linsky, and Evan Ratliff talk with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall.

More Trending

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Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank : The concept of Small Finance Banks (SFB) was introduced in India in 2015. It was done with the aim of promoting financial inclusion for the unbanked and underbanked population. This population is situated generally in tier-3 & tier-4 areas. An SFBs main aim is to develop a market to promote a credit market to provide loans to MSMEs, among other lending services.

Banking 126
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Should You T-Bill and Chill?

Discipline Funds

T-Bills are an incredibly attractive option at this time. At 5.5% you’re getting high income, high principal stability and tax efficiency across very predictable short-term time horizons. These are the highest rates we’ve seen since the mid-2000s so it’s a welcome change from the 10 years of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). In recent months I’ve heard the term “T-Bill and chill” more and more often.

Portfolio 123
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NCAA Athlete Compensation: Supporting College Athletes with Financial Planning

Wealth Management

With NIL deals becoming more and more prevalent, student-athletes need trusted guidance on what the opportunities are and ultimately what to do based on their unique situations.

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Top Indian Stocks Held By JP Morgan – Portfolio Analysis!

Trade Brains

Top Indian Stocks Held By JP Morgan : JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is a financial holding corporation that, through its subsidiaries, provides solutions for consumer and commercial banking, investment banking, processing financial transactions, and asset management. Consumer companies include things like credit cards, small businesses, auto loans, student loans, and merchant services, to name a few.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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How to Outperform

A Wealth of Common Sense

Kerala is a coastal state in India with a large fishing industry. Beginning in 1997, mobile phones were introduced to the region. By 2001 more than 60% of the fishers and traders were using phones to coordinate sales and set prices for the fish. Robert Jensen used data from this market in a research paper called The Digital Provide to show how the addition of more information impacted fish prices in the marketplace.

Sales 118
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The Not-So-Magnificent 493

The Irrelevant Investor

Five years ago, I wrote a blog post that would change the world of finance forever. I shared a chart that tried to visualize just how dominant the large stocks had gotten in the cap-weighted S&P 500. In July 2018, with every FAAMG stock hitting an all-time high, these five companies had a market capitalization that was equal to the bottom 282 names in the index.

Marketing 114
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11 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Sept. 22, 2023)

Wealth Management

Bisnow analyzed the rising trend of “dequity” placements—a mix between debt and equity—that some real estate investors are now using. W.P. Carey is moving forward with a two-part plan to exit the office sector. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world at the end of the week.

Planning 114
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September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.4 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY

Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact (pay content). Brief excerpt: The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3 brands is negligible. The vehicles currently impacted by shutdowns either are products with high brand loyalty, in segments dominated by the three strike-impacted manufacturers or have plenty of inventory. emphasis added Click on graph for larger i

Sales 111
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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RIA Roundup: NFP Acquires Divergent Wealth Advisors

Wealth Management

NFP grew its wealth and retirement business in Utah, R&R left Avantax for Commonwealth, tru Independence launched its 4th firm of 2023 and Johnson Financial, LPL and Kestra all made announcements this week.

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Sept 22nd COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Recently hospitalizations have tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are increasing, but far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

Numbers 108
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The Research and Development Factor

Alpha Architect

The higher returns to high R&D stocks represent compensation for heightened systematic risk not captured in standard asset pricing models. The Research and Development Factor was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Assets 108
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S&P 500 Snapshot: September Struggles Continue

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 struggled for most of the week as the index posted its third consecutive weekly loss. The index is currently up 12.97% year to date and is 9.93% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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A Goodbye to Summer

Integrity Financial Planning

A crisp breeze bites the warm summer. Each remaining warm day is an invitation to bask in the season’s waning glow, a chance to relish the lingering warmth before autumn carries it away. Some may claim summer is defined by grand adventures and exotic vacations. But, truly, isn’t summer found in the simplest of moments? In the hum of cicadas as they serenade the sunset, the rustling of emerald leaves dancing to the rhythm of a balmy breeze, the scent of ripe peaches as they blush in t

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A Look at CBRE Investment Management’s Push on Private Infrastructure

Wealth Management

The investment management firm has been beefing up its staff to capitalize on an asset class with strong investor interest.

Investing 114
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Underlying Inflation Gauge Falls for 14th Straight Month

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for August is 3.0%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.3%, unchanged from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.3%.

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Puerto Rico Is Being Far Too Generous With Rich Investors

Wealth Management

The US commonwealth has become one of the world’s most attractive capital gains tax havens, and its residents don’t have much to show for it.

Taxes 107
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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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How Will Indian Stock Markets React to 2024 Elections?

Trade Brains

Do elections have any impact on the stock market? Long story short, yes! Not only the elections but also the presentation of the budget, economic policies, the popularity of the leader, economic events and other factors, can send ripples through the stock market. Before the May 2014 election, the Sensex went up by 16.6% in a span of one year and by 8% in just one month before the election results, according to an Economic Times report.

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SEC Fines Goldman Sachs, Citadel Over Trading Errors

Wealth Management

The SEC fined Goldman Sachs $6 million for sending inaccurate or incomplete trading data and Citadel $7 million for breaking short sales labeling rules and incorrectly marking millions of trade orders.

Sales 88
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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of September 8th, the index was at 7.010, down.007 from the previous week.

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A Sneak Peek at the Potential 2024 Estate and Gift Tax Rates

Wealth Management

Wherever there's change, there's also opportunity.

Taxes 124
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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in August

Calculated Risk

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Performance Remains Strong, but Slowing Improvement Suggests Delinquencies May Be Nearing Cycle Lows • At 3.17%, the U.S. delinquency rate improved by 4 basis points in August and is nearly a full percentage point below its 2015-2019 same-month average • However, steady slowing in the annual rate of improvement -- from -40% in early 2022 to -0.8% as of August – suggests delinquency rates may be nearing cycle lows • Serious delinquencies (90+

Numbers 63
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Private Equity Won’t Diversify Your Portfolio

Wealth Management

Investing in such funds makes sense if you want more risk and illiquidity — and are willing to pay for it.

Portfolio 101
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Arabian Petroleum IPO Review – GMP, Details, Price & More

Trade Brains

Arabian Petroleum IPO Review: Arabian Petroleum is coming up with its Initial Public Offering. This IPO will be open for subscription on September 25, 2023, and closes on September 27, 2023. This is an SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprise) IPO, and the company is going to be listed on the NSE SME platform. In this article, we will look at the Arabian Petroleum IPO Review, analyze its strengths and weaknesses and see what unfolds.