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Wednesday links: larger market trends

Abnormal Returns

April 2024 The S&P 500 lost 4.08% in April 2024. (on.spdji.com) How major asset classes performed in April 2024. (capitalspectator.com) Hedge funds are overexposed to momentum. (ft.com) Strategy Catalysts matter. Good luck identifying them. (behaviouralinvestment.com) How to think about debt. (collabfund.com) Markets have to clear. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Companies Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) owners can thank Todd Combs and Ted Weschler for the Apple ($AAPL) investment.

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Why the FED Should Be Already Cutting

The Big Picture

The Fed held its benchmark Federal-Funds rate steady yesterday at 5.25% – 5.5%, leaving the possibility of cuts in the future. Jerome Powell repeated his “ Data Dependent ” mantra. “Persuasive evidence” that higher interest rates were no longer necessary to bring down inflation is what the FOMC wants, and today I want to share a few pieces of that evidence.

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1958 BMW 507 Series II Roadster

The Big Picture

In the northeast, Spring has fully sprung. Temps are expected to kiss 80 today, and after a mild winter, we have been enjoying abundant sunshine. The daffodils and tulips are up, the magnolias are blooming, and the pear and cherry trees are explosions of colors! All of that blue sky beckons us to hop in a roadster to enjoy the open road. My first high HP car was a BMW convertible, but the open-top car that set the standard was the 507.

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How Advisors Can Work With Attorneys To Drive Better Estate Planning Outcomes For Clients

Nerd's Eye View

Financial advisors add value for their clients not only by helping them grow their wealth, but also by working with them to create a plan for how to use it. While much of this process may focus on the client's own lifetime planning needs (e.g., helping them develop a retirement income plan), it often also addresses the client's goals for their wealth after their death.

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Chicago PMI Falls to 17-Month Low

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 37.9 in April from 41.4 in March. This is the fifth straight monthly decline and the lowest level for the index since November 2022. The latest reading is worse than the 44.9 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a fifth consecutive month.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week You likely don't need a long-term bond fund. (wsj.com) Allan Sloan, "Don’t fall in love with your money fund." (barrons.com) Good luck trying to dial risk up and down at the right times. (collabfund.com) At what age do we say people are 'old'? (scienceblog.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps.

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March 2024 State Coincident Indexes Ease

The Big Picture

A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. That lagged economists’ consensus of 2.4%. However, it’s not quite all it appears. Some of this is that “long and variable lag” of higher rates starting to bite — but it’s not just that.

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How To Register And Remain Registered With The SEC As An Internet Investment Adviser

Nerd's Eye View

A little over 20 years ago, when the Internet was still just a few years into gaining widespread use, the SEC understood its potential to transform how financial advisory firms conducted business with the ability to deliver advice digitally, lowering the barriers to serve clients across the country. However, the challenge for firms that wanted to use their websites to advise clients, but didn't otherwise qualify for SEC registration, was that they would ostensibly need to register in all 50 stat

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FHFA House Price Index Rebounds in February to New High

Advisor Perspectives

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rebounded to 423.0 in February, a new all-time high. U.S. house prices increased by 1.2% from the previous month and are up 7.0% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was up 0.8% month-over-month and up 5.1% year-over-year.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Personal Income increased 0.5% in March; Spending increased 0.8%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent).

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Adviser links: communication skills

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Ben Johnson and Julie Willoughby talk with Jen Abate, Head of Financial Institutions Group at Lazard Asset Management (morningstar.com) Cameron Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk with Meir Statman author of the new book "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance." (rationalreminder.libsyn.com) The biz Goldman Sachs ($GS) is getting out of the robo-business by selling its Marcus Invest to Betterment.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • We might be closer to changing course on climate change than we realized : Greenhouse gas emissions might have already peaked. Now they need to fall — fast. ( Vox ) • Tesla Is Not the Next Ford. It’s the Next Con Ed. Elon Musk’s EV empire is crumbling.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (April 27-28)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Department of Labor released the final version of its Retirement Security Rule (a.k.a. the Fiduciary Rule 2.0), which is set to go into effect in September and (if it survives anticipated legal challenges) would represent a significant shift toward greater fiduciary standards in the financial services industry, including by defining as a fiduciary act a one-time recomm

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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30 Years of Financial Market Returns

A Wealth of Common Sense

A colleague recently asked me to run the 30 year annual returns for U.S. stocks, bonds and cash. He just wanted the returns. I couldn’t help but slice and dice the numbers and overanalyze the data because that’s what we do here. Let’s dig in. First the annual return numbers for the S&P 500, 10 year treasuries and 3 month T-bills over the 30 years ending in 2023: Some thoughts about these numbers: St.

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Consumer Confidence Falls to Lowest Level Since July 2022

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell to its lowest level since July 2022. The index retreated to 97.0 this month from March's downwardly revised 103.1. This month's reading was lower than expected, falling short of the 104.0 forecast.

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Thursday links: analysts and accountants

Abnormal Returns

Markets The energy sector is still less than 4% of the S&P 500. (allstarcharts.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. (morningstar.com) Strategy Good luck trying to dial risk up and down at the right times. (collabfund.com) Expect to see some overconfidence tonight in Detroit. (seeitmarket.com) There's no return without risk.

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#FA Success Ep 383: Leveraging YouTube Videos To Organically Grow 9X To $750M In Just 5 Years, With Troy Sharpe

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 383rd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Troy Sharpe. Troy is the Founder and CEO of Oak Harvest Financial Group, an RIA based in Houston, Texas, that oversees approximately $750 million in assets under management for about 1,000 client households. What's unique about Troy, though, is how his firm's emphasis on driving organic growth through a multi-pronged marketing strategy, including a radio show, in-person semina

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows Slightly to 5.8% YoY in March

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.6% year-over-year in March, down from 5.8% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.8% YoY in March , down slightly from 5.8% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Insurance Barometer Study Shows Gaps in Coverage and Understanding

NAIFA Advisor Today

Life Happens , NAIFA’s consumer-education arm, has collaborated for the 14th year with LIMRA to conduct the 2024 Insurance Barometer Study. The findings reveal a great opportunity for financial professionals to educate Americans about the importance of life insurance and dispel some of the myths and misunderstandings that contribute to a life insurance need-gap in the United States.

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Personal finance links: working longer

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Amy Arnott talk with Meir Statman author of "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance." (morningstar.com) Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand talk with Jared Dillian author of "No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life." (youtube.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with Sara Gelsheimer, Senior Wealth Manager at Plancorp, about the unique planning needs for women who are primary breadwinners.

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MiB: Ed Yardeni on the Roaring 20s

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research , a provider of global investment strategies and asset-allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank’s US equities division in New York City. He taught at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and t

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Ketan Parekh Scam – The Infamous Stock Market Fraud!

Trade Brains

Ketan Parekh Scam: One of the biggest stock market frauds that became an eye-opening event for not only the equity investors but also for the Securities Exchange Board of India and other regulatory authorities was Ketan Parekh Scam. The Market Rip-off was done in such a way that he was able to make multiple times the annual return on the stocks he manipulated.

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Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, ADP Employment, Construction Spending, Job Openings, ISM Mfg, Vehicle Sales

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 180,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 184,000 added in March. • At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for April.

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11 Investment Must Reads This Week

Wealth Management

After more than two months of positive fund flows, the largest spot bitcoin ETFs have posted outflows in recent days. Morningstar looked at five ETFs trends to watch in the current market environment. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors.

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Sunday links: return expectations

Abnormal Returns

Markets Why the stock market usually goes up. (humbledollar.com) How stocks, bonds and cash have performed over the past 30 years. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Average returns hide a lot along the way. (tker.co) Companies A look at Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) stock on the eve of its first shareholder meeting without Charlie Munger. (barrons.com) The cloud computing business is so big that small shifts in market share matter a lot.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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10 Years From Now

A Wealth of Common Sense

It feels like we’re in a weird place from the perspective of the economy and financial assets. Housing prices seem too high. Consumer prices seem too high. Stock prices seem too high. Government debt seems too high. I understand why people are worried. These things are cyclical and the lines can’t go up and to the right forever. Bear markets, financial crises, recessions, etc. are features we cannot do away wi.

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How to Give Retirees the Freedom to Spend

Advisor Perspectives

Most clients have no idea what retirement failure means to them and how a given failure rate should influence their planning. My guests today will present a planning framework that improves existing models by dynamically adjusting for market performance and longevity. When saving for retirement it’s common for advisors to evaluate progress toward a savings goal and recommend course corrections to stay on track.

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Comments on February House Prices, FHFA: House Prices Up 7.0% YoY

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.4% year-over-year in February; FHFA: House Prices Increased in February, up 7.0% YoY Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3-month average of December, January and February closing prices).

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