The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do. Go to the Fed’s website, and search for “ Summary of Economic Projections.”

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Nationwide Financial

DECEMBER 20, 2022

The post Stronger end to 2022 as consumers continue to drive economic growth appeared first on Nationwide Financial. Following the rate increases in November and December, the yield curve is now fully inverted — a highly reliable leading indicator of a recession.

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Alpha Architect

DECEMBER 23, 2022

The Performance of Multi-Factor Long-Short Portfolios in Various Economic Regimes was originally published at Alpha Architect. The Performance of Multi-Factor Long-Short Portfolios in Various Economic Regimes was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

Since the beginning of the year, economic data has continued to defy the recession calls of 2022.

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Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 24, 2022

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. 4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate at Lowest Level since at least 1979 This graph, based on data from the MBA through Q3 2022, shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% The unemployment rate is down from 4.6%

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Still, I cannot help but observe that the FOMC response to pandemic-induced inflation is blunt, excessive and unnecessarily painful to the middle and lower economic earners. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022).

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Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, inflation and the labor market on Thursday. -- Monday, November 28th -- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), 3rd Quarter 2022. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.7%

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Calculated Risk

AUGUST 11, 2022

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.64 The delinquency rate was down 47 basis points from the first quarter of 2022 and down 183 basis points from one year ago. “At

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 31, 2022

Stocks overcame poor earnings results from some of America’s largest companies to post gains last week as investors cheered positive earnings surprises, easing inflation and a rebound in economic growth. Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations. This Week: Key Economic Data. The Wall Street Journal, October 28, 2022.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Traditional economic consensus used to be inflation occurred when too many dollars chased too few goods.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 25, 2024

economic strength.” As Sam Ro explains: -Personal consumption grew at a 2.5% Business investment grew at a 2.9% Residential investment grew at a 13.9% The weakness was, in Sam’s words, a sign of “U.S. ” Because our imports rose 7.2%, versus our exports growing only 0.9%, the net is negative.

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The Big Picture

MAY 24, 2023

This week saw the release of the Fed’s big annual research report, Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2022. August 9, 2022) WFH vs RTO (February 16, 2023) The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022) Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022) Source : Economic Well-Being of U.S.

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James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

We may not be flying into a storm, but there’s been plenty of turbulence the first part of 2022. How businesses, households, and central banks steer through the rough air will set the tone for markets over the second half of 2022. The sources of turbulence are clear.

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Park Place Financial

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Estates Estate Planning in this Economic Climate Schedule a Complimentary Financial Review CLICK HERE TO SCHEDULE. Between inflation, increasing interest rates, federal changes to monetary policies, and global conflict, many factors are putting a strain on the current economic situation. million per person in 2022 . 0 Comments.

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2022

Stocks on Thursday shrugged off news of a second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth to build on Wednesday’s gains as fresh earnings continued to comfort, if not impress, investors. It was the second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth, meeting the technical definition of a recession. CNBC, July 28, 2022.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. September 29, 2023) Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022) Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Source : U.S. Economic Forecasts: What’s the Probability of a Recession in 2024?

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Markets Just how bad was the 2022-23 bond drawdown? ft.com) Why you should look at returns from 2022-23 as a whole. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economic growth is trending around 2.0% (econbrowser.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: extreme arbitrage. priceactionlab.com) Streaming Lionsgate ($LGF.A) down from 5.6%

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Nationwide Financial

JULY 20, 2022

and its impact on economic growth, George Bernard Shaw’s quote seems apropos. Undeniably, for decades, economists and deficit hawks alike have been debating the merits of rising national debt and weaker economic activity as a result. Economic theory suggests that once the level of national debt surpasses the level of GDP (i.e.,

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Hawkish comments by the Fed and weak economic data heightened investors’ recession concerns and sent stocks lower last week. The potential for higher rates for longer, along with disappointing economic data, particularly a sharp decline in retail sales, amplified fears of a recession and sent stocks lower for the remainder of the week.

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Discipline Funds

JUNE 29, 2023

So far, it looks like the smooth landing is unfolding, but I joined Oliver Renick yesterday on TD Ameritrade TV to discuss the possibility of a different scenario – the “trampoline landing” This scenario is not just a smooth landing, but a big bounce in economic activity coming off of 2022.

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

FOMC Says Inflation Is Still Too High Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Concerns over a firmer monetary policy were heightened by fresh economic data, touching off a climb in bond yields and a slide in stock prices last week. 6 This Week: Key Economic Data Monday: Durable Goods Orders. IRS.gov, September 19, 2022 8.

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 12, 2022

There was some good news last week on the economic front and out of China, which started to loosen COVID restrictions. But it was a week where good news was considered bad news, as any signs of economic resilience stoked worries of a longer rate-hike cycle. This Week: Key Economic Data. CNBC, December 9, 2022.

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Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 3, 2023

economy appears to be in the late stage of expansion, with strong economic activity but labor and supply chains remain constrained. The outbreak of war in Ukraine earlier in 2022 worsened supply constraints, especially for food and energy, and contributed to sustained inflation. in the medium term. Responding to recession risks.

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 22, 2022

Despite the week’s losses, stocks exhibited resiliency in the face of a string of troubling economic news that included flat retail sales, weak housing numbers, an inversion in the yield curve, and tepid economic data out of China. This Week: Key Economic Data. The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2022. New Home Sales.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

First Half 2022, NBER Edition. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk. The FRED Blog , August 29, 2022. The “recession…of H1 2022”? Econbrowser August 26, 2022. Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022).

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Investor sentiment was also lifted by unexpectedly strong retailer earnings, upside surprises in new economic data, and a better-than-expected consumer sentiment reading. Investors looked past the continuing Covid-related challenges that have stymied China’s economic recovery and its attendant implications for global growth. .

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Nationwide Financial

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This will be our last weekly publication for 2022, and we wish all our readers a happy holiday season. In his comments, Chairman Powell maintained a hawkish stance as the Fed continues to prioritize reducing inflation, even if it means some economic pain. Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg. million units.

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

The stock market edged lower last week as it digested a crosscurrent of conflicting economic data and contrasting comments from Fed officials. The economic picture, however, included some encouraging news as retail sales rose and producer price increases moderated. . This Week: Key Economic Data. CNBC, November 15, 2022.

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

This Week: Key Economic Data. Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Source: Econoday, November 11, 2022 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials.

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

This Week: Key Economic Data. Source: Econoday, November 4, 2022 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The 2022 annual contribution limit is $16,000.

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

would not tame inflation without economic pain. This Week: Key Economic Data. Source: Econoday, September 23, 2022 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. November 7, 2022).

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Calculated Risk

MARCH 18, 2023

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2 • Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February • February Housing Starts: Average Length of Time from Start to Completion increased Sharply in 2022 • Q4 Update: Delinquencies, (..)

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 10, 2022

Falling yields further lifted investor enthusiasm, as did new economic data indicating a cooling economy. This Week: Key Economic Data. Source: Econoday, October 7, 2022. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. Source: Zacks, October 7, 2022. The Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2022.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 8, 2022

The key economic reports this week are September CPI and Retail Sales. -- Monday, Oct 10th -- Columbus Day Holiday : Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. No economic releases are scheduled. No economic releases are scheduled. The stock market will be open. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3%

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

This Week: Key Economic Data. Thursday: Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Source: Econoday, September 16, 2022 The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials.

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