Investing Caffeine

FEBRUARY 1, 2022

T he stock market has been like a rocket ship over the last three years 2019/2020/2021, advancing +90% as measured by the S&P 500 index, and +136% for the NASDAQ. Math Matters. I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 15, 2022

As a quick reminder, a 67% allocation to 90/60 generally equates to a 100% allocation to a 60/40 portfolio like you might get from Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). For this post I assembled a less dramatic portfolio more in line with Krom's thinking. The math shows the NTSX/ARBIX/BTAL combo would be down 14.7%

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The Irrelevant Investor

MARCH 15, 2021

As I wrote about in January 2020, starting yields tell you pretty much all you need to know about what your future returns will look like. Unfortunately, the math isn't on our side anymore. Two, I don't know anybody who holds an entire portfolio of long-term bonds. The increase in income quickly made up for the price decline.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills. We've also looked at countless ways to incorporate a small allocation to covered calls funds to help reduce portfolio volatility, so using them as alts in a matter of speaking. Covered call funds have many favorable attributes.

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Math Retirement Numbers Portfolio 59

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 17, 2024

One of our colleagues, Ken Stuzin, likens portfolio construction to Darwinian Investing – it is about survival of the fittest. In a concentrated portfolio, it is the losers that kill you. What sort of hit rate should we then expect within their portfolio? 5 As Table 2 below highlights, this team appears to be seriously good!

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Discipline Funds

APRIL 19, 2023

This piece was inspired by this fantastic Josh Brown rant on CNBC about how the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio isn’t dead. The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. The math on the 40% slice is much cleaner. Give it a watch. I don’t love a standalone bond aggregate as a 40% bond slice.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

But last year, 2020, how do you look at these breaking new stories and all the buzz and mania around an IPO for both good and bad? RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about some imbalances, and I’m thinking about the sort of meme stock mania that began in 2020, when everybody was stuck at home during the pandemic, and just exploded in 2021.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 1, 2022

Here's a quote I saw attributed to Barry Ritholtz: “The Best Portfolio is probably the one which sacrifices a bit of performance, but helps you sleep at night.” Over the last five years, it missed out on the stock market rally until late 2020 when it went parabolic, then drifted lower for much 2021. Cannot be done?

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Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

But in the Mustachian Era (the years since 2011 when I started writing this blog ), there has only been one: the 2020 Covid Crash which only lasted about a month. It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.).

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

WENGER: Well, we reserve a lot of funds for follow-on, and we have a very sort of, I think, sophisticated reserves methodology that we’ve honed over many funds cycles now, where we actually built kind of a Monte Carlo analysis of the portfolio to see how much money we think we need to keep in reserve. RITHOLTZ: Right. There you go.

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The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. And there was a problem with 168 of them at the end of 2008.

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The Better Letter

DECEMBER 30, 2022

The current record – set in May 2020 using a tricked out silver Audi S6 disguised as a Ford Taurus Police Interceptor during the height of the recent pandemic, when roads were generally deserted – is 25 hours 39 minutes. More than that, however, we had purchased tickets for Disneyland for everyone for Wednesday. We wanted to go!

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 14, 2022

It doesn't look like an investment grade bond proxy and I would note that on a price basis it essentially fell the same amount as the NASDAQ during the pandemic crash in March 2020. PUTW maybe snapped back half of what the S&P 500 did in March/April 2020. The nucleus of non-gameover portfolios will always be equities.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

So I came down, met with our head of the portfolio review department, which oversees our external managers, met with our head of brokerage, and then met with the head of bind indexing, who was Ken Volpert at the time. And she was like, “You should come down and talk to some people at Vanguard.”

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Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 5, 2024

The prime-age employment-population ratio is 80.6%, matching the highest recorded in the last cycle in January 2020, when the economy appeared to be in pretty good shape (pre-COVID). It indicates that more people are working and want to work than at any point between 2001 and 2020. in October 2023).

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Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 97

Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

The social impact score is especially helpful for analyzing and sourcing MBS outside of the growing, but still limited, labeled bond universe, allowing us to build a more diversified portfolio. According to the National Association of Realtors, low-income homeowners comprised just 27% of all homeowners in 2020, down from 38% in 2010.

Investing 52

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Trade Brains

DECEMBER 16, 2022

And when used for ROE, as per the basic rule of math, if the denominator decreases, the fraction as whole increases i.e, The product portfolio includes dominant brands such as Pampers, Gillette, Whisper, Old Spice, Head & Shoulder, Ariel, etc. Company 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 5 yr. higher ROE. Nestle India Ltd.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 29, 2022

A 20% allocation to the average systematic trend fund in a 60/40 portfolio would have resulted in an annual drag of about 1.45 Turns out the math checks out using Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 equities/fixed income portfolio and the Guggenheim Managed Futures Strategy Fund (RYMFX).

Math 40

Math Portfolio Clients Management 40

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing. ADMATI: Yes.

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Brown Advisory

JUNE 16, 2022

We discount each year at our 10% minimum weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and some infinite series maths gives us the basis for some rough approximations 2. Today the Global Leaders portfolio cash flow duration in real terms is in the 15 to 17-year range using this calculation. The last time U.S. and appeared to be going higher.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. And so, getting to your question about equities where we’re positioned right now, equities absolutely can conserve an important part in the portfolio. I was econ and kind of geeky.

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The Big Picture

MAY 30, 2023

BRYANT: So money, unlike math, money is highly emotional. I mean, there’s 50,000 kids in the Atlanta public school system, so you can do the math there. I believe I love math because it doesn’t have an opinion, that’s a Melody Hobson quote. RITHOLTZ: Right. BRYANT: Number two, money is emotional. RITHOLTZ: Yes.

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Banking Economics Economy Business Planning 141

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 6, 2022

And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. BERRUGA: So many of our clients were struggling to find alternative sources of income for their portfolios.

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The Better Letter

FEBRUARY 9, 2023

Math is powerful. Winning as a gambler is tough generally , but there are typically several Super Bowl bets where simple math demonstrates that the line is off (in terms of reality if not in terms of equalizing the total bets). If you know and can apply it, math is a major edge in gambling about football and elsewhere.

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Math Advertising Numbers Media 83

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

I think what’s important, though, and what’s key is that we found ourselves at a very interesting point in time, in 2020, in the wake of George Floyd, in the middle of COVID. RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker? And many of those gentlemen have gone on to do incredible things as well.

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Recruitment Engineering Investing Investments 141

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

But you know exactly how they’re going to interplay within a portfolio, hugely powerful. You know, it’s not the equity market, and I run some big equity portfolios, you know, different. But, you know, it’s been in a portfolio for a long time. Last year, it’s in our tactical portfolios.

Economy 141

Economy Numbers Portfolio Marketing 141

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2023

SEIDES: But market returns across — RITHOLTZ: The past decade, 2010 to 2020, we were what? That’s a really easy portfolio to create. It allows you to understand, generally speaking, what is a reasonable beta for that whole portfolio. RITHOLTZ: Oh no, it’s much worse. SEIDES: It’s lower. It’s lower.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 27, 2023

She was a partner and a portfolio manager at Canyon Capital, a firm that runs currently about $25 billion. And so if you compare that to today, if you remember Oaktree raised $15 billion fund in 2020, on its own. For example, you talk about the 2020 distressed cycle, and it’s interesting to me that it was so short, so shallow.

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The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2023

By the time you got to ’87, right, the futures were five years old, people thought there was going to be portfolio insurance, that there was going to be this massive, always liquidity that you could stay longer stocks and that you could sell futures against it. And so it’s one of these things that math works.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 21, 2023

You’re accidentally waiting into yet another quant controversy, whether you need both these characteristics in every stock, or whether you can have some stocks that are great on one and simply average on the other and the portfolio comes out. I was a fixed income portfolio manager and trader, which is a ton of fun.

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The Big Picture

JULY 4, 2023

.” It’s really helpful to have had five other meetings with people who sit at analogous funds that had losses that were just as big, and in fact, they may have contributed to those losses more and be able to tell him, first off, your fund, just by my math, has a $250 million management fee. LMR in 2020 was 4.6

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The Big Picture

JULY 31, 2023

HOFFMAN: You know, go back to early 2020, I mean, every beat was a COVID beat pretty quickly too, right? HOFFMAN: You know, I start the book kind of in earnest at Davos 2020, which will to me just go down as like the most absurd gathering of human beings in history. ” This is the end of January of 2020. RITHOLTZ: Right.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2023

And I was a math nerd as a kid. ’cause and, and this isn’t a, a beat obsession on arc, but since in inception she’s underperformed the s and p 500, including one year, I think it was 2020 where she was up something like 168%. So, so you set to retire as portfolio manager this year, you mentioned your two successors.

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The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2023

But all those years leading up to 2020, when the whole world collapsed in March, all those years leading up to it, we had kind of a draining of healthcare, a bleeding of healthcare companies because of getting the fat out, cutting the costs down. MORGENSON: And so, he buys this portfolio of junk bonds. MORGENSON: Right.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 8, 2024

I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. He helps portfolio managers make sense of the world. And so you have, hindsight is great, but always, 00:48:21 [Speaker Changed] But 2020. Tell us a little bit about the plan for launching an independent economics research 00:09:15 [Speaker Changed] Shop.

Economy 141

Economy Clients Economics Banking 141

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

The academic side of how to build a portfolio, we can argue about the details, right? As an advisor, you could get somebody’s model portfolio, or you could hire some, you know, three CFAs and do it yourself. Some advisor that’s out there can say, “I have generally 1% alpha for the last three years in my model portfolio.”

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