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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. but most months, the specific number is more or less a rounding error. It was that 157.087 million people are employed full-time in the United States.1 This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 258
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Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363
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The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage?

Brown Advisory

The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage? No less an authority on the economy than the Federal Reserve stated, “May was the strongest month for hotel revenue in Philadelphia since the onset of the pandemic, in large part due to an influx of guests for the Taylor Swift concerts in the city.” economy afloat this summer!

Economy 98
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Another Strong Jobs Report? Phooey, and I Can Prove It

Mish Talk

Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart. The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Full time employment is down 398,000 since March and down by 480,000 since May!

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CIO Perspectives: Goldilocks Economy and Opportunities Outside the Magnificent Seven

Brown Advisory

market for several years, but there are a large number of significant geopolitical and regional matters that are impacting investments all over the globe. Mick joins the podcast at an especially timely moment. Many investors and pundits continue to focus their attention on the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that have dominated the U.S.

Economy 52
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CIO Perspectives: Goldilocks Economy and Opportunities Outside the Magnificent Seven

Brown Advisory

market for several years, but there are a large number of significant geopolitical and regional matters that are impacting investments all over the globe. Mick joins the podcast at an especially timely moment. Many investors and pundits continue to focus their attention on the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that have dominated the U.S.

Economy 52
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U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2022

Calculated Risk

There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age group is now increasing. As I noted in 2014, this was positive for apartments, and more recently positive for housing. This is why - a number of years ago - I was so positive on housing.

Economy 145