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Market Commentary: Is “Sell in May” Still Relevant?

Carson Wealth

While the GDP number for the first quarter disappointed, strength was evident beneath the surface. The weakest numbers were in areas that are volatile and tend to reverse, such as inventories and net exports. The core numbers were solid again and didn’t change our basic outlook for the rest of the year. in the first quarter.

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Market Commentary: Slow Start For Stocks Despite Solid Job Gains

Carson Wealth

Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. In fact, the average annual number of jobs gained from 2010-2019 was 2.2 Another 20% gain is possible, however, as it has happened before four times.

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Market Commentary: Another October Low Forming?

Carson Wealth

after adjusting for inflation, matching the average annual pace between 2010 and 2019. After adjusting for inflation, retail and food service sales were up 5.7%. The consumption numbers quoted above came amidst surging student loan payments. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4% Since then, the economy has accelerated.

Marketing 143
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Market Commentary: Good News Is Good News

Carson Wealth

Instead, this is what happened: The economy accelerated in 2023, with GDP growth rising 3.1%, well above the 2010-2019 trend of 2.4% That’s well above the 2010-2019 average of 2.4% Even the year-over-year rate, which partly relies on year-old numbers that aren’t relevant anymore, came in at 2.9% and 2017-2019 pace of 2.8%.

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Market Commentary: Fundamentals May Be Aligned for Solid Stock Gains in 2024

Carson Wealth

The third quarter’s blockbuster productivity data follows a hot number from the prior quarter, when productivity rose 3.5% (annualized). annual pace, which is faster than the 2010-2019 pace of 1.2%. It’s also 40% above the 2010-2019 average and 4% above the 2005-2007 average. Since 2020, productivity has averaged a 1.4%

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Breakout Confirmed

Carson Wealth

That’s a solid job growth number but a step down from reports through April. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 This measures the number of people working as a percentage of the civilian population. A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy Another month, another employment surprise.

Economy 52
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Market Commentary: Market Rally to Close April, But Be Wary of “Sell in May”

Carson Wealth

Here’s how the various components contributed to the headline number in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. The average over the last decade (2010 – 2019) was 2.3%. But even services spending, which makes up 45% of the economy, rose 2.3%. Beyond the numbers, what matters is the trend. But we’ll see.