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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 111
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5 Unusual Economic Indicators That Can Tell You About the Economy

Trade Brains

However, there are many other lesser-known indicators that can actually provide valuable insights and are helpful for the economy. Back in the autumn of 2001, he noticed that when the US economy was struggling due to the recession, lipstick sales were actually going up instead of down. Keep reading to find out what they are!

Economy 64
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The Fed Matters Less Than You Think

A Wealth of Common Sense

These were some of the prevailing narratives from the post-GFC world: We only had a bull market in the 2010s because of the Fed juicing the economy. The Fed was trying to juice the economy in the 2010. The only reason tech stocks did well is because of low interest rates.

Economy 108
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U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2022

Calculated Risk

The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030. There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age group is now increasing. And this is a positive for the economy.

Economy 145
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U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 17 Percent in 2023; 42% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. Despite the recent increases, the newest totals remain far lower than in December 2010, when filings peaked at just less than 1.6 Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 127
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Chart of the Day: Lowered Expectations

Discipline Funds

They were pushing back on this idea that the US economy is just muddling along. And here’s the data: From 1950 to 2010 Real GDP averaged 3.4%. An economy that was “hot” or potentially “overheating” was typically something in the 5%+ growth range. From 2010 to the present RGDP has averaged just 2.3%.

Economy 58
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Update: The Inland Empire

Calculated Risk

The more an area is dependent on housing, the larger the negative impact on the local economy will be. So I think some pundits have it backwards: Instead of a strong local economy keeping housing afloat, I think the bursting housing bubble will significantly impact housing dependent local economies.

Economy 133