Calculated Risk

JANUARY 7, 2023

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December Early reports suggest NAR reported sales could be lowest since 2010.

Sales 234

Sales Investing Investments Marketing 234

Calculated Risk

APRIL 18, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: Ill return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving into the key renter age group in 2010.

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2025

The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The homeownership rate of 65.1 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the first quarter 2024 (65.6 percent) and lower than the rate in the fourth quarter 2024 (65.7 emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Numbers 240

Numbers Media Sales 240

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2025

FHFAs National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores Moody's: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image.

Marketing 173

Marketing Marketing 173

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030. And below is a table showing the ten most common ages in 2010, 2021, and 2030 (projections are from the Census Bureau, 2017 ). Note the younger baby boom generation dominated in 2010.

Economy 363

Economy Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Economy 309

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

million in September 2010 to a low of 380,634 in June 2022. Bankruptcy totals for the previous 12 months are reported four times annually. For more than a decade, total filings fell steadily, from a high of nearly 1.6 Total filings have increased each quarter since then, but they remain far lower than historical highs.

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Wealth Management

APRIL 9, 2025

A new analysis of historical data found that the IRS audit rate of individual taxpayers has decreased by about two-thirds since 2010.

Numbers 270

Numbers 270

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2025

As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $440,000 today adjusted for inflation (47% increase). The composite 20, in real terms, is 3% above the bubble peak. People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.

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Numbers 191

Calculated Risk

MAY 6, 2024

For Fannie, this is down 95% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Fannie Mae reported the number of REOs decreased to 7,791 at the end of Q1 2024, down 5% from 8,403 at the end of the previous quarter, and down 9% year-over-year from Q1 2023. Click on graph for larger image. Here is a graph of Fannie Real Estate Owned (REO).

Numbers 330

Numbers 330

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 13, 2024

For Fannie, this is down 96% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Fannie Mae reported the number of REOs decreased to 7,179 at the end of Q2 2024, down 10% from 7,971 at the end of the previous quarter, and down 17% year-over-year from Q2 2023. Click on graph for larger image. Here is a graph of Fannie Real Estate Owned (REO).

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Numbers 323

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

Justin Berman details the thinking behind his move from Goldman Sachs to independence in 2010, followed by the merger with Cresset Asset Management.

Financial Advisor 272

Financial Advisor Assets Management 272

Wealth Management

JUNE 5, 2023

Dynasty’s former COO will join as president of Advisor Group RIA Solutions after leaving the former firm he co-founded in 2010.

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Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2023

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.65%, down from 0.66% January. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 0.99% in February 2022.

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 26, 2023

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0.62%, down from 0.65% February. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 0.92% in March 2022.

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Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.76%, down from 0.80% May. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.86% in June 2021.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Portfolio 363

Portfolio 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. This is slightly below the pre-pandemic lows. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Portfolio 361

Portfolio 361

Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2023

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. This is below the pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Portfolio 358

Portfolio 358

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2023

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. This is at the pre-pandemic lows. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Portfolio 355

Portfolio 355

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Portfolio 353

Portfolio 353

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $438,000 today adjusted for inflation (46% increase). The composite 20, in real terms, is 3% above the bubble peak. People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.

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Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 8, 2023

For Fannie, this is down 95% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Fannie Mae reported the number of REOs increased to 8,780 at the end of Q1 2023, essentially unchanged from 8,779 in Q4 2022, and up 18% from 7,430 at the end of Q1 2022. Click on graph for larger image. Here is a graph of Fannie Real Estate Owned (REO).

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Numbers 317

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2024

cnbc.com) Gold had its best year since 2010. Markets The U.S. stock market is set for its best two-year performance since 1997-98. wsj.com) After a good start, energy sector performance has faded. axios.com) Intel ($INTC) had its worst year as a public company. msn.com) Finance Can Treasury primary dealers handle the ongoing funding calendar?

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Media Economy Numbers Economics 173

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

from June to July , a trend not seen between 2010 and 2019, when price increases averaged 0.5% As 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages neared 6% this summer, some prospective homebuyers pulled back, helping ease overheated and unsustainable price growth. Notably, home prices declined by 0.3% by July 2023.

Marketing 362

Marketing Marketing 362

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 4, 2022

The billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates first initiated his transition plan in 2010.

Planning 237

Planning 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data" Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009 ) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too ( from April 2010 ).

Sales 355

Sales 355

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2022

The all-time high for August was 110 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for August was 23 thousand in 2010. In August 2022 (red column), 55 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 55 thousand homes were sold in August. This was well above expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined.

Sales 363

Sales 363

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020.

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investments 241

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2023

This graph shows the unemployment rate for the Inland Empire (using MSA: Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario), and also the number of construction jobs as a percent of total employment. The unemployment rate was falling before the pandemic and was down to 3.6% (down from 14.4%

Economy 339

Economy Numbers 339

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

Despite the recent increases, the newest totals remain far lower than in December 2010, when filings peaked at just less than 1.6 Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 331

Economy 331

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2022

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. This is almost back to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Portfolio 328

Portfolio 328

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2024

As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $432,000 today adjusted for inflation (44% increase). The composite 20, in real terms, is 2% above the bubble peak. People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.

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Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

The all-time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011. In June 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in June. This was well below expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly.

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Sales 344

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2022

The all-time high for November was 86 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for November was 20 thousand in 2010. In November 2022 (red column), 46 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 54 thousand homes were sold in November. This was above expectations, however sales in the three previous months were revised down.

Sales 341

Sales 341

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2022

by June 2023, bringing home price growth close to the long run average from 2010 to 2020. Though annual appreciation was still strong, it slowed from the previous month for the second consecutive month, reflecting reduced buyer demand in part due to higher mortgage rates and worries about a slowing economy.

Economy 321

Economy Sales Marketing Marketing 321

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 16, 2025

Coming into 2025 the S&P 500 had just two down years out of the past 15: 2010 +14.8% 2024 +24.9% We were all probably a little spoiled. Regardless of the reason for the recent swoon, we were due.

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