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MiB: Gretchen Morgenson on Private Equity

The Big Picture

A former stockbroker and alumna of the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, she won the Pulitzer Prize in 2002 for her “trenchant and incisive” reporting on finance. They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis.

Taxes 322
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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 9% in March

Calculated Risk

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. The index was at 164.0 in March, down from 179.5 the previous month. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a slowdown in 2024.

Education 117
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

It’s hard to completely dismiss this as a leading indicator and I’m not here to do that, but while most drawdowns of this magnitude have led to economic contractions, they haven’t always. At its low, the S&P 500 was 25% below its high. Irrelevant Investor ). Cumulative vs. Cyclical Knowledge : Knowledge in some fields is cumulative.

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in April

Calculated Risk

“On par with our expectations, the Dodge Momentum Index continued to recede in April, due to declining economic conditions and ongoing banking uncertainty.” Weaker commercial planning is driving the DMI’s decline, as it is more exposed to real-time economic changes than the largely publicly funded institutional segment.”

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in August

Calculated Risk

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. The index was at 178.0 in August, down from 190.3 the previous month. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased in December, Down 11% from Peak

Calculated Risk

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. The index was at 186.6 in December, up from 181.5 the previous month. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in February

Calculated Risk

Owners and developers tend to put projects into planning until well after economic conditions weaken. Therefore, the anticipated mild economic growth in 2023 could cause the DMI to moderate over the year, but it is unlikely to fall below historical norms.” This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. in December.