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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 111
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The Economy vs. Interest Rates

Bell Investment Advisors

Comparing present day data with data from 2000 through 2019, we clearly see strength in the present. The broader economy surprises, too. With a seemingly unstoppable labor market and an economy that’s defied recession expectations, why have most financial markets declined since July? First, let’s discuss the U.S. labor market.

Economy 52
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MiB: Peter Atwater, Financial Insyghts

The Big Picture

He coined the term “K-shaped recovery” to describe the pandemic’s effects on the economy. Atwater coined the phrase “ K-Shaped Recovery ” to describe confidence-divide between the top and bottom of the economy post-pandemic. The work from home confidence divide was both revealed and amplified by the pandemic.

Economy 271
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Friday links: extremely high rates

Abnormal Returns

ft.com) Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% wsj.com) Economy The March NFP report was 'uniformly positive.' Markets The global universe of public equities is shrinking. return in Q1. wsj.com) Magnificent Seven earning revisions are slowing. ft.com) Strategy Rebalancing isn't market timing.

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Countertrend ?

The Big Picture

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward. The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy.

Economy 321
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BLS: Job Openings Little Changed at 8.8 million in February

Calculated Risk

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 105
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BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 8.5 million in March

Calculated Risk

This series started in December 2000. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 69