The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2023

Simply Red : We begin by noting there was nowhere to hide in 2022: last year saw losses for stocks and bonds, with Bonds off 12.9%, the S&P 50 Index down 19.7%, the Russell 2000 off 21.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 down 33.4%. Risk Appetite : Fund Managers surveyed by Bank America Merrill Lynch (BAML) are as negative about as they ever get.

Retail 286

Retail Economics Banking Marketing 286

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward. This is supported generally by economic strength in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and record high corporate profits. We call these eras Secular Bull Markets. The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy.

Economy 321

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 321

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2022

“Mortgage application activity was lower last week, with overall applications declining over two percent to their lowest level since 2000. The refinance index, however, fell five percent to its lowest level since November 2000 , driven by a six percent drop in conventional refinance applications.”

Economy 139

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 139

Advisor Perspectives

OCTOBER 27, 2023

You won’t find this term in any serious economics textbook, but the only clinical way to describe the US housing market is bananas. Affordability is at record lows and mortgage rates are the highest since 2000.

Economics 52

Economics Marketing Marketing 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

but the giveback off the highs was substantial: S&P 500 was down ~23%, Russell 2000 was off 27%, and the Nasdaq 100 came down 32%. Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP?

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Nationwide Financial

MAY 10, 2023

The Russell 2000® Index (which tracks small-cap stock performance) was up only 0.44%. Are the Russell 2000’s weak returns a sign of slowing economic growth, or is the recent underperformance of small caps reflecting investor sentiment about current market opportunities?

Risk Tolerance 52

Risk Tolerance Valuation Economics Accounting 52

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. Should it be? 46, October 2014).

Economics 317

Economics Budgeting Taxes Economy 317

Calculated Risk

MAY 9, 2023

2000=100) from the revised March reading of 190.6. On par with our expectations, the Dodge Momentum Index continued to recede in April, due to declining economic conditions and ongoing banking uncertainty.” Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. in April to 180.9

Healthcare 100

Healthcare Economics Education Retail 100

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2023

2000=100) from the revised January reading of 199.3. Owners and developers tend to put projects into planning until well after economic conditions weaken. Therefore, the anticipated mild economic growth in 2023 could cause the DMI to moderate over the year, but it is unlikely to fall below historical norms.” in February to 203.0

Healthcare 104

Healthcare Economics Planning Education 104

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. One of my favorite responsibilities as chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management is the quarterly conference call I do for our clients.

Media 350

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 350

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2022

“Mortgage applications declined for the fourth consecutive week to the lowest level of activity since February 2000. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.

Economics 98

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 98

Nationwide Financial

MAY 4, 2023

Tighter monetary policy has helped bring inflation down somewhat from its peak last June, with the expected consequence of slowing economic growth as seen in the Q1 GDP report. Nationwide Economics expects the Fed’s recent quarter-point hike to be the last tightening move for the current cycle.

Economics 75

Economics Banking Retirement Financial Market 75

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

2000=100) from the revised July reading of 190.3. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Drops 6.5% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 6.5% in August to 178.0

Healthcare 113

Healthcare Planning Education Economics 113

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2000=100) from the revised November reading of 181.5. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Improves 3% in December The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network (DCN), rose 3% in December to 186.6

Planning 64

Planning Economics 64

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

The leading economic indicators show the U.S. economy is performing well, but most Americans still believe economic conditions are extremely poor — as if the country was mired in a deep recession. 2000-2003 Dotcom implosion 6. The approach that works the best is also the one most people ignore. Sapient Capital ) • If the U.S.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 9, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Advances In November The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 3.8% (2000=100) in November to 207.2 from the revised October reading of 199.6. The rate of increase in the DMI, however, has steadied over the month.

Healthcare 143

Healthcare Education Planning Government 143

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

“Purchase applications increased for the first time after six weeks of declines but remained close to 2015 lows, as homebuyers remained sidelined by higher rates and ongoing economic uncertainty. Refinances continued to fall, with the index hitting its lowest level since August 2000.”. percent from 7.06

Economics 98

Economics 98

Trade Brains

APRIL 30, 2024

And on the other hand, we have Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh who not only ruled the stock markets but were also found guilty of economic crimes. Ketan Parekh was a strong believer in the ICE sector – Information, Communication, and Entertainment and that was the time during 1999 and 2000 when the dot-com boom had just started.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Banking Management 105

Calculated Risk

APRIL 10, 2023

2000=100) from the revised February reading of 201.0. We are predicting the Dodge Momentum Index to work its way back to historical norms throughout 2023, concurrent with weaker economic conditions,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. in March to 183.7

Healthcare 99

Healthcare Education Economics Banking 99

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 in September.

Numbers 116

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 116

Bell Investment Advisors

JANUARY 4, 2024

Investors now expect a loosening of monetary policy and a soft economic landing with no immediate recession. As measured by the Russell 2000 index, small cap stocks climbed 24% since their late October lows! The most recent GDP report measured economic growth at an astonishing 4.9%. Those expectations lifted U.S.

Economics 52

Economics Financial Market Investment Advisor Government 52

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October he Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2.

Healthcare 119

Healthcare Education Planning Economics 119

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 111

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 111

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 YoY in December.

Retail 112

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 112

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99

Retail 118

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 118

Calculated Risk

JULY 20, 2022

“Mortgage applications declined for the third week in a row, reaching the lowest level since 2000. Purchase activity declined for both conventional and government loans, as the weakening economic outlook, high inflation, and persistent affordability challenges are impacting buyer demand. percent from 5.74

Economics 67

Economics Government 67

Investing Caffeine

FEBRUARY 1, 2023

Commentators continue to shout the doom-and-gloom forecasts of a hard landing recession, but after an economic hurricane in 2022 there are some signs the financial clouds have begun to lift this year. Investors Waiting for Another Flood While the calls for a hard economic landing remain, healthy GDP growth ( +2.9% 1, 2023).

Economy 59

Economy Economics CFP Investing 59

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 13, 2023

percent, the quits rate is still indicative of a labor market that is rather tight as it is higher than any other period on record prior to the current expansion (data back to 2000). It should be noted, however, that at 2.5

Economics 52

Economics Retail Sales Food 52

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2023

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Wraps up 2022 with December Growth The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 6.6% (2000=100) in December to 222.2 from the revised November reading of 208.3.

Healthcare 102

Healthcare Education Retail Planning 102

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 million from 4.07

Retail 127

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

JULY 11, 2023

2000=100) from the revised May reading of 202.4. Commercial construction is a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Decline in Institutional Planning Drops Dodge Momentum Index Down 3% in June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 2.5% in June to 197.3

Healthcare 87

Healthcare Education Planning Economics 87

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

Recent economic data will likely prevent any significant decline in mortgage rates in the near term, but the strong job market depicted in the August data should support housing demand. The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Economy 141

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 141

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " In January, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.42

Numbers 83

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 83

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 3, 2022

percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000. Treasury yields dropped as a result, as investors continue to expect a weaker macroeconomic environment in the coming months.

Economics 143

Economics Marketing Marketing 143

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2023

Data on inflation, employment, and economic activity have signaled that inflation may not be cooling as quickly as anticipated, which continues to put upward pressure on rates.” Other than the lows in Q4 of 2022 and early this year, the refinance index was at the lowest level since the year 2000.

Economics 142

Economics Accounting Marketing Marketing 142

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

2000=100) from the revised September reading of 180.3. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Inches Up 1% in October The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 1% in October to 181.7

Education 61

Education Healthcare Planning Economics 61

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 YoY in February.

Numbers 61

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 61