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Personal finance links: making bad decisions

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Liz Ann Sonders about how to rebalance your portfolio. awealthofcommonsense.com) On the math of a 0% line of credit. wsj.com) How do estimated taxes work? ritholtz.com) Jesse Cramer talks with Peter Lazaroff about how to hang in there for the long run. abnormalreturns.com) FOMO is real.

Math 208
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Dollars Are For Spending & Investing, Not Saving

The Big Picture

“I need the US Dollar to be a store of value between the time I make it until I spend it, invest it, pay my taxes with it, or give it away. To be more precise, I want to discuss the type of chart that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of money, currency, spending, investing, and taxes. and paying taxes.

Investing 337
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Portfolio Construction & 20% Yields

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

First up was a webinar about model portfolios at ETF.com. Outsourcing the work related to actually being an advisor would not feel right to me and I enjoy what I get to do including portfolio construction. I think that when investors hear about model portfolios they sort of think in terms of set and forget.

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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

This is before we get to the issue of capital gains taxes, which create a hurdle of (minimum) 20% on those pesky profits just to get to breakeven. 24, 2023 _ 1: In particular, why average outperforms over the long run; Sommers credits not making errors (via Charlie Ellis’ “Winning the Loser’s Game”) but the nuance and math are fascinating.

Marketing 293
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Did A Liquid Alternative Just Blow up?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

It's been a while since this sort of thing was relevant for my day job so something could have changed, weeklies didn't exist for example, but if my math is correct then it was way over exposed which would account for last week's decline in the fund price. Please leave a comment if I did the work incorrectly.

Math 95
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Join The Bond Market Resistance!

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

This blog has pretty much evolved into 100 ways to build a portfolio without bonds. The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general. If the Fed itself can’t forecast rates, why would your financial advisers think they can?"

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Avoiding Bond Market Volatility

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

I've been saying meaningful yield without too much volatility is what investors hope the bond portion of their portfolio will give. The simple 40 year trade for bonds of "number go up" is finished and as a matter of math, can't be repeated. Taking volatility out of a fixed income portfolio is fairly simple.