Fri.Aug 11, 2023

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Seth Klarman on What Makes a Value Investor and Committing ‘Sacrilege’ in New Edition of ‘Security Analysis.’ Klarman edited the classic to remind investors of basic principles — but he questions “how much of this will be read by institutional investors who may think they know it all.” ( Institutional Investor ) • Flying Cars Are Nearly Here—and They’re Electric : Companies like Joby and Archer are about to begin production of electric vertical takeoff a

Math 245
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Friday links: the highest earners

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Bonds are showing positive real yield for the first time in a long time. (ft.com) Why Seth Klarman spearheaded a re-write of Graham and Dodd's classic "Security Analysis." (institutionalinvestor.com) Active ETFs are the future. (ft.com) Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs ($GS) has a morale problem. (nymag.com) Why fingers are being pointed at Goldman Sachs' ($GS) CEO David Solomon could use a friend.

Startup 209
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FutureProof 2023 is 30 days away!

The Big Picture

I am super jazzed for this year’s Future Proof. Our second go-around is even bigger and better than last year’s! It is nothing like the usual financial conference — it’s totally outdoors, right on the Pacific in Huntington Beach. We took over all 5 hotels for the 3000 attendees, including 1,000 registered advisors and over 500 sponsors.

Food 242
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Podcast links: the practical uses of AI

Abnormal Returns

AI Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks with Des Traynor is the co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer of Intercom about the practical uses of AI. (joincolossus.com) Russ Roberts talks about the state of AI with Zvi Mowshowitz. (econtalk.org) Business Tyler Cowen talks with Paul Graham about the art of evaluating talent. (conversationswithtyler.com) Shane Parrish talks with Frank Slootman is the Chairman and CEO at Snowflake ($SNOW).

Economy 189
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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (August 12-13)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth has launched an investigation into how investment firms are using artificial intelligence-enabled technologies, echoing concerns expressed by the SEC that these tools could be used to put the firms' interests ahead of their clients if the methods of the developers who create the tools and the 'training' the AI goes through is

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Legal Battle Between FINRA and Frequent Foe Could Be a 'Headshot' For the Regulator

Wealth Management

Utah-based Alpine Securities is challenging the constitutionality of FINRA. Given recent judicial decisions from more conservative courts, some legal scholars think it may succeed.

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The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine

Brown Advisory

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. Yet through osmosis I’ve learned that aging affords some wines time to become smoother and mellower, developing a fuller flavor as the months and years pass.

Economy 98
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RIA Roundup: Corient Adds 3 US Firms, $13.7B, in 3 Months

Wealth Management

CI Financial revealed Corient’s latest additions during an earnings call this week, Dynamic Advisor Solutions added five new teams in the first half of the year, Integrated added a new Denver affiliate and WEG is staffing up for more growth.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: 2nd Straight Week in the Red

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 posted its lowest close in a month as it finished the week down 0.31% from last Friday. This marks the second consecutive week in the red for the index, something not seen since the first two weeks in May. The index is currently up 16.73% year to date and is 6.93% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Summer Fun for Retirees

Integrity Financial Planning

Embracing an active lifestyle during the golden years is both rewarding and beneficial for overall health. As the summer season unfolds, it offers retirees an opportunity to engage in a variety of activities that not only keep them physically active but also stimulate their minds and foster social connections. Here are six engaging summer activities that you can enjoy.

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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August A brief excerpt: Interestingly, new home inventory is close to a record percentage of total inventory. This graph uses Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) existing home inventory from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) and new home inventory from the Census Bureau ( only completed and under construction inventory ).

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Value and Profitability/Quality: Complementary Factors

Alpha Architect

There are various measures of value and quality, with one being Marx’s gross profits-to-assets. Value and Profitability/Quality: Complementary Factors was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Assets 83
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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 9% YoY; New Listings Down 14% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 5, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 9%. This week marks a 7th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, and the gap is growing. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 14% from on

Sales 97
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Do Valuations Even Matter For the Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Robert Shiller has a free online database of historical stock market data I’ve been using for years. Going back to 1871, Shiller has data on historical interest rates, dividends, earnings, inflation and valuations. His preferred valuation measure is the cyclically-adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) ratio The average CAPE ratio going back to 1871 is 17.4x the previous 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings for the U.

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The Higher Your Tax Bracket, the More Attractive Municipal Bonds May Look

Wealth Management

The $4 trillion municipal bond market, like other parts of the fixed income universe, is offering elevated yields not seen in years.

Taxes 94
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Update On The Hideous Cut To Social Security

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The post earlier this week about a possible 50% cut to Social Security starting in ten years? Yeah that was based on an incomplete, sensationalized article that I tried to convey skepticism over. Barron's cleared things up. The average $17,400 cut is for two earner couples not across the board and so the $10,600 number for lower incomes and the $23,000 number for higher earners was not as it was originally portrayed.

Numbers 70
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Nine Book Recommendations From Advisors to Get You to the End of Summer

Wealth Management

Non-fiction about happiness, purpose and the psychology of money, a thriller from David Baldacci and more.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Aug 11th COVID Update: New Pandemic Low for Deaths

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. After the first few weeks, the pandemic low for weekly deaths had been the week of July 7, 2021, at 1,690 deaths (until recently). Recently hospitalizations have been increasing from a low of 5,146. The last few months have seen a positive trend.

Numbers 52
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SEC Delays Decision on ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF Filing

Wealth Management

The SEC had until Aug. 13 to say whether it would approve, reject or delay on coming to a decision.

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Early Q3 GDP Tracking: Wide Range

Calculated Risk

As usual, there is a wide range of estimates early in the quarter. GDPNow's estimate is probably way too high. From BofA: Next week , we will initiate our 3Q US GDP tracker with the July retail sales data. emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.5% (qoq ar) [Aug 8th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.1 percent on August 8, up from 3.9

Retail 52
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Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group

Advisor Perspectives

The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of July, the labor force participation rate is at 62.6%, unchanged from last month and consistent with expectations.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 1.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 August U.S. hotel performance declined from the previous week and showed lower comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 August. 30 July – 5 August 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022): • Occupancy: 68.9% (-1.0%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$158.10 (+2.2%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.97 (+1.2%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate

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Baby Boomer Employment Across Time

Advisor Perspectives

The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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Facts Vs Feelings Take 5 – You’re Downgraded

Carson Wealth

You’re downgraded! U.S. debt was downgraded last week by Fitch – from AAA to AA+. This is the second time this has happened in U.S. history. How does this impact investors? Carson Group’s Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese break down their thoughts on: · The unlikelihood that your finances will be impacted by the downgrade · Should we have seen the downgrade coming?

Economy 52
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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of July 28th, the index was at 5.542, down 0.785 from the previous week.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Best Penny Stocks With High Net Profit Margin – Hidden Gems?

Trade Brains

Best Penny Stocks with High Net Profit Margin: From time to time we come across penny stocks which soared 500%, even 1,000% in value making their investors richer. Such companies score better than their peers on key metrics such as return on equity, profit margins, etc. This enables them to earn higher profits than their small peers. Such growth on a small base brings multi-bagger stock returns to investors.

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Producer Price Index: July Headline Inches Up to 0.8%

Advisor Perspectives

This morning's release of the July Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was up 0.3% month-over-month after June's 0.0% change in prices (s.a.). Headline PPI for final demand year-over-year accelerated from 0.2% in June to 0.8% in July, its first pick up in 13 months (n.s.a.).

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Updating Your Physician Estate Plan

Your Richest Life

Your estate plan is the comprehensive guide to your wealth and property when you pass away or become incapacitated physically or mentally. Whenever you experience big life changes – marriage, divorce, buying a home, death of a loved one, birth of a child, etc. – it’s important that you update your estate plan to reflect those changes. As a physician, there are a few other areas to pay attention to when you’re working on your estate plan.