Thu.May 25, 2023

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The First Rule of Dunning Kruger…

The Big Picture

Of all the cognitive errors in behavioral finance and human psychology , the one that creates the most confusion is the Dunning-Kruger effect. (Perhaps its rise in pop culture is to blame). Regardless, I find DKE to be an incredibly useful tool that helps explain many of the individual errors we see in investing. It’s useful to think of Dunning Kruger in terms of metacognition : One’s ability to self-evaluate a particular skill set.

Math 312
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Thursday links: failing fast

Abnormal Returns

Investing Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley on what tasks AI is going to take over. (pionline.com) Igor Tulchinsky, "Using AI to move between visual and text is an interesting way of harnessing algorithms to potentially identify opportunities or shape conclusions that may be more obvious when seen by the human eye." (semafor.com) Expect more ETFs to be marketed based on the use of AI.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train WFH reads: • Debt-Ceiling Fight Sends Investors Hunting for New Havens : Traders worried about a potential U.S. default are swapping their go-to safe haven for the bonds of America’s top-rated companies. Just days or weeks before the government faces a possible funding shortfall, investors are shunning U.S. Treasury bills that will mature over the next several months while paying a premium to buy debt issued by Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson, two of the highest-rated U.S. c

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Longform links: no guarantee of happiness

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "Anatomy of a Breakthrough: How to Get Unstuck When It Matters Most" by Adam Alter. (bigthink.com) A Q&A with Simon Johnson, co-author of "Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity." (fasterplease.substack.com) An excerpt from "Flawless: Lessons in Looks and Culture from the K-Beauty Capital" by Elise Hu.

Startup 192
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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Two price target cuts for Disney from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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RIA Edge: Shirl Penney Predicts the Future

Wealth Management

Client-driven independence, surprising partnerships and evolving tech will define the “greatest time to be a financial advisor,” according to the founder of Dynasty Financial Partners.

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: NYC banking commission votes to halt city deposits at Capital One, KeyBank

MarketWatch

New York City’s banking commission voted to freeze deposits at Capital One Financial Corp. COF and KeyCorp’s KEY KeyBank after the two banks failed to submit required plans showing their efforts to halt discrimination, the city’s comptroller said in a statement on Thursday, alleging that the banks “outright refused to submit required policies.” The comptroller, Brad Lander, also voted against designating Wells Fargo & Co.

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Street Retail Assets Survive the Pandemic Still Highly Prized by Investors

Wealth Management

Investment sales in the sector have been impacted by the same volatile forces as other commercial real estate assets, but potential long-term returns remain attractive.

Assets 107
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The Impact of Continued Learning on Business Development With Joey Davenport

NAIFA Advisor Today

Joey Davenport is the Co-founder and President of Hoopis Performance Network (HPN), a LIMRA strategic partner providing innovative, web-based sales training and leadership development learning solutions for financial professionals. Joey is responsible for leading all sales and marketing, enterprise client relationships, solutions development, and team development for the organization.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Advisor Innovations Podcast: Tim Maurer on Why Personal Finance is More Personal Than Finance

Wealth Management

Signature FD's Tim Maurer describes how he sees the lessons of life planning and qualitative financial advice being tactically implemented in advisor-client relationships.

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: Pfizer wins full FDA approval for oral COVID therapy Paxlovid for adults at high risk of developing severe illness

MarketWatch

Pfizer Inc. PFE said Thursday it has received full Food and Drug Administration approval for its Paxlovid oral treatment for COVID-19 for use in adult patients with high risk of developing severe disease. The treatment has been available in the U.S. since December of 2021 under an Emergency Use Authorization. To date, more than 11.6 million treatment courses have been prescribed.

Food 98
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Imagine Financial Planning 2030

Advisor Perspectives

AI’s arrival will have an increasingly large impact on our lives. That includes investing and, especially, other aspects of financial planning.

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: Stratasys and Desktop Metal to combine in all-stock deal valued at about $1.8 billion that will create new player in 3-D printing space

MarketWatch

Stratasys Ltd. SSYS and Desktop Metal Inc. DM said Thursday they have agreed to combine in an all-stock deal valued at about $1.8 billion that will create a new company in the 3-D printing space. Under the terms of the board-approved deal, Desktop Metal shareholders will receive 0.123 shares of Stratasys for each share owned, equal to about $1.88 per share.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: Considering a Move? Here’s What You Need to Know

Wealth Management

In the second of this 2-part series, Mindy Diamond and Jason Diamond provide the key steps to a strategic process with focused outcomes.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 20% YoY; New Listings Down 26% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 20, 2023 • Active inventory growth slowed again, with for-sale homes up just 20% above one year ago. The number of homes for sale was higher than this time last year, but not by as much as we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Sales 86
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Michigan-based Firms Join Integrated Partners to Enhance UNHW Services

Wealth Management

Two teams with more than $500 million in combined assets have joined the Integrated Partners platform to build out services for wealthier clients.

Assets 95
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The Compound and Friends: Nvidia Breaks Away

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Public: Thanks to Public for sponsoring this episode. Go to public.com/compound to learn more about investing in US Treasuries. On today’s show, we discuss: Nvidia poised for record sales as AI demand kicks in Is your job safe? ChatGPT use case UNESCO, Airbnb, and Mexico City partner to promote the city as a remote working hub Remote banking crisis The work f.

Banking 79
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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How Data Analytics Can Improve the Financial Performance of Seniors Housing Portfolios

Wealth Management

While technology solutions are aplenty, driving actionable insights from data is still lacking in the industry.

Portfolio 107
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May Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.3 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY

Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: May U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Set for Biggest Volume Gain in 2023 (pay content). Brief excerpt: Rising inventory, combined with pent-up demand, is keeping growth going mostly by holding the long list of economic- and price-related headwinds at bay, but there is potential for demand to sharply drop at the end of the month – and in June - if an agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling remains elusive and further spooks consumers. emphasis added Note: When writing "biggest volume gain", Wa

Sales 75
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AI Intrigues ETF Managers as Both Investment and Tool

Wealth Management

AI replaced cryptocurrencies as the topic of the moment for the thousands of issuers, index providers and advisers who attended the Inside ETFs conference.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 229,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending May 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000 , an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 17,000 from 242,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,750, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 12,500 from 244,250 to 231,750. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of we

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Ex-Morgan Stanley Advisor Gets Seven Years for Fleecing Clients in Ponzi Scheme

Wealth Management

Shawn Edward Good took in $7.2 million from at least 13 victims, according to federal prosecutors.

Clients 98
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: Ford EVs will be able to use Tesla charging stations under new agreement

MarketWatch

Ford Motor Co. F said late Thursday that its electric-vehicle owners soon will have access to the more than 12,000 Tesla Inc. TSLA superchargers in the U.S. and Canada, as the two automakers have reached an agreement scheduled to start in a year. Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley and Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk held a Twitter “spaces” talk to reveal the agreement.

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in April; Down 20.3% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Recorded No Change in April Pending home sales recorded no change in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three U.S. regions posted monthly gains, while the Northeast decreased. All four regions saw year-over-year declines in transactions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – remained at 78.9 in April, posting no change from the previous month.

Sales 68
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: Anheuser-Busch’s stock falls again toward 6-month low, heads for worst month in nearly two years

MarketWatch

The U.S.-listed shares of Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. BUD dropped 1.3% in afternoon trading, which puts them on track for a fourth-straight loss and a six-month low. The Belgium-based beer brewer’s stock has also tumbled 12.46% in May, which would put it on course to suffer the worst monthly performance since it dropped 12.54% in July 2021. The stock has been diving as sales of its Bud Light beer have been falling, following backlash over the brand’s partnership with trans influencer Dylan Mulvane

Sales 76
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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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The Top 15 Cities With the Most Billionaires

Wealth Management

Where do the richest of the rich choose to reside?

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: Tilray stock drops following announced secondary offering

MarketWatch

Tilray Brands Inc. shares TLRYCA:TLRY dropped in the extended session Thursday after the cannabis company filed for a secondary offering. Tilray shares fell as much as 19% after hours, following a 2.5% decline to close the regular session at $2.36. The company said it was issuing $150 million in senior convertible notes due in 2027. Tilray said it was using a portion of the proceeds to help pay down debt.

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Focused on the Future Podcast: Hannah Moore on Embracing Your 'Why'

Wealth Management

Guiding Wealth and Amplified Planning's Hannah Moore discusses reimagining client offerings, internships and developing talent on the first-ever episode of the Focused on the Future podcast.

Clients 56