Fri.Jan 05, 2024

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Podcast links: the power of attention

Abnormal Returns

The biz The 25 best podcasts of 2023 including 'The Retrievals' by Susan Burton. (theatlantic.com) The best podcasts of 2023 according to people who make podcasts including 'The Town with Matthew Belloni.' (vulture.com) Economy 10 things Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway learned in 2023. (bloomberg.com) Four megatrends heading into 2024 including a more normal economy.

Economy 205
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (January 6-7)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that comment letters submitted regarding the Department of Labor's (DoL) proposed Retirement Security Rule, which is intended to strengthen standards regarding the provision of certain retirement-related advice, reflect the contentious nature of the proposal, with brokerage and insurance industry groups arguing that existing regulations are sufficient to protect investors

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Friday links: a boost to growth

Abnormal Returns

Markets A look at major asset class returns in 2023. (visualcapitalist.com) Long technology, short utilities was the trade in 2023. (visualcapitalist.com) Strategy How to read all those market and economic forecasts. (morningstar.com) A look at different variants of the 60/40 portfolio. (priceactionlab.com) Hedge funds David Tepper's Carolina Panthers are at the bottom of the NFL.

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MiB: Matt Levine on Money & Stuff

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Matt Levine , Opinion columnist at Bloomberg. He is the author of Money Stuff , one of the most popular daily newsletters on Wall Street. Previously, he was an investment banker at Goldman Sachs and a mergers and acquisitions lawyer at Wachtell, Lipton. He explains how his career meandered from studying classics, teaching Greek, clerking for a Federal Judge, working on M&A at a big firm, and eventually doing derivative transactions on Wall Street.

Education 177
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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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December Employment Report: 216 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 45,000, from +150,000 to +105,000, and the change for November was revised down by 2

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Comments on December Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both decreased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in December.

Retail 111
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Allworth Financial: A Disciplined Process and Proprietary Scorecard

Wealth Management

Andy Stout, CIO of $19 billion Allworth Financial, discusses the RIA’s proprietary scorecard to filter through thousands of funds, the firm’s strategy for weathering economic risks and how the firm uses direct indexing to bring alpha to clients.

Economics 113
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5 Best Fertilizer Stocks With High FII Holdings in India

Trade Brains

Best Fertilizer Stocks With High FII Holdings: Fertilizers play a crucial role in ensuring nations’ food security by providing essential nutrients to plants, which help them grow and produce nutritious crops. As a result, fertilizers have become a vital component of the agriculture industry, attracting more foreign investors to India’s markets and creating new investment opportunities.

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Jan 5th COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have almost quintupled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

Numbers 105
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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America Spreads the Wealth — and Redistributes It, Too

Wealth Management

Neither the left nor the right may want to believe it, but the US tax system does a pretty good job of taking from the haves and giving to the have-nots.

Taxes 113
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Crowded Trades Increase Crash Risks

Alpha Architect

Crowded equity positions in anomalies remain and have significant impacts in terms of risk and return dynamics. Crowded Trades Increase Crash Risks was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Private Equity Funds Are Borrowing Against Themselves, With the Help of Insurers

Wealth Management

Several insurers are ramping up their participation in net asset value financing, an increasingly popular form of borrowing for private equity funds that need liquidity amid a tough market for cashing out holdings.

Insurance 100
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Top 5 AdvicePay Blogs of 2023 for Forward-Thinking Financial Advisors and Wealth Management Firms

AdvicePay

As we say goodbye to the transformative landscape of 2023, a year distinguished by substantial growth for both you and us, we wanted to take a moment to reflect and share some of our most valuable resources. In the past year, we proudly unveiled our inaugural Fee-for-Service Industry Trend Report (our Bozeman office is buzzing with excitement as we prepare to release Volume 2!).

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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RIA Roundup: Mission Wealth Names Five New Partners

Wealth Management

2024 kicked off with a flurry of activity in the RIA space, including at least 11 deals, some key people moves, and one rebrand.

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Chalk Talk: Healthy Financial Habits for 2024

MainStreet Financial Planning

“MainStreet Chalk Talk” The MainStreet Financial Planning Discussion Club When: Tuesday 1-16-24 at 7:30pm Eastern; 4:30pm Pacific ~30-45 minutes Recorded and able to retrieve for one week How : Zoom Meeting Free for current clients, $10 for guests Register Here! Healthy Financial Habits for 2024 Hosted by: CFP®’s Katherine Edwards , Anna Sergunina , and Jennfer Bush Join CFP’s Katherine Edwards, Anna Sergunina, and Jennfer Bush as we discuss how to cultivate healthy financial habits

CFP 91
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Kitces Research: Advisor Wellbeing on the Decline Among Minorities, Next Gen

Wealth Management

Twenty percent of advisors are “struggling,” particularly minorities and younger industry participants, according to new Kitces research.

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There’s No Ozempic For Financial Decisions

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’m skeptical of any diet or exercise craze because they all end up more or less becoming fads. This is why I could never get behind the idea of buying stock in Peloton, even though I am a happy user of the product. Sure, some people will buy it and use it regularly. Others will buy it, use it and then stop using it. But there is always another piece of equipment or exercise routine that comes along.1 When it comes.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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TIFIN, Franklin Templeton To Launch TIFIN @Work

Wealth Management

The AI-powered employee financial wellness platform is meant to help small- to mid-sized advisors gain traction in the retirement plan market.

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Chart of the Week: ISM Services Employment Collapse

Discipline Funds

This is a chart that people will be talking about for a long time now. This shows the ISM Services Employment Index. Services have been extremely strong for the last few years and it’s been a consistent bright spot in the economy. It’s been so strong that it’s forced the Fed to reconsider their position at times in the last few years as services inflation has remained stickier than the Fed is comfortable with.

Economy 85
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Tepper’s $2 Billion Hedge Fund Payday Marred by NFL Meltdown

Wealth Management

The founder of Appaloosa Management has struggled running the Carolina Panthers even as bets on tech stocks boost his personal fortune.

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Employment Report: 216K Jobs Added in December

Advisor Perspectives

The latest employment report showed 216,000 jobs were added in December, more than the expected addition of 170,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Everything you need to know about spot Bitcoin ETFs

Wealth Management

Thursday, February 01, 2024 | 2:00 PM Eastern Standard Time

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: December Employment

Advisor Perspectives

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 216,000 increase in total non-farm payrolls and the unemployment remained at 3.7%.

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Q4 GDP Tracking: 1.4% to 2.5%

Calculated Risk

From Goldman: Following today’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.4% (qoq ar) and our Q4 domestic final sales growth forecast unchanged at +2.2% (qoq ar). [Jan 5th estimate] emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on January 3, up from 2.0 percent on January 2.

Sales 61
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ISM Services PMI Expands for 12th Straight Month

Advisor Perspectives

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 50.6, which was lower than the 52.6 forecast. The latest reading marks the 12th straight month the index has been expansion territory.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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5 Biggest Office Spaces in The World

Trade Brains

Biggest Office Spaces in The World : From the stock market to chemicals, agriculture, food, and other sectors, India is coming forward in many sectors and is giving tough competition to other countries globally. But here’s the exciting part—it’s not just limited to that! When it comes to the world’s largest office buildings, India is going head-to-head with other countries.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: 9-Week Win Streak Snapped

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 started off 2024 by snapping its 9-week win streak, finishing 1.52% down from last Friday. The index is currently down 0.96% year to date and is 2.07% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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Question #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 7) Wage Growth: Wage growth was solid in 2023, up 4.0% year-over-year as of November, but down from 4.8% YoY in 2022.