Tue.Aug 08, 2023

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What’s Wrong With Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indexes

The Big Picture

I love FRED — I am a big user of their charts and data (and even their swag ). Where I go full heterodox are in things like the Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index, which is a recent addition to FRED’s awesome database. It is a “monthly measure of how unpredictable overall economic conditions are 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year ahead.” FRED’s post on it observed that “Economists Kyle Jurado, Sydney Ludvigson, and Serena Ng use a set of 132 individual macroeconomic t

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Research links: learning in a bear market

Abnormal Returns

Quant stuff James Picerno, "In short, there are no silver bullets for building a solid backtest." (capitalspectator.com) How ChatGPT can suss out information in company filings. (marginalrevolution.com) Quants have beliefs: in their systems not a narrative. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) C-suite How the stock ownership of medical device company CEOs affects recalls.

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Tuesday morning train reads: • A Fed Official Wonders: ‘Do We Need to Do Another Rate Increase?’ The head of the powerful New York Fed said that it was an “open question,” and that rates could fall next year. ( New York Times ) • Alternatives Have Been ‘Kryptonite’ to Alpha — At Least for Public Pensions : Richard Ennis finds public pension funds in the U.S. have generated negative alpha of approximately 1.2 percent annually since the global financial crisis in 2008. • Alternatives Have Been

Economy 244
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Tuesday links: a lot of luck

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Don't make your investments based on who is in the White House. (retirementresearcher.com) When do dividend-focused strategies outperform? (morningstar.com) Semiconductors Arm Holdings is planning investments from Apple, Samsung and Intel on its IPO. (asia.nikkei.com) Taiwan Semi ($TSM) is building a big chip factory in Germany. (retirementresearcher.com) Weight loss In a study, Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) Wegovy not only helped people lose weight but also reduced their risk of cardiovascular

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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#FA Success Ep 345: Differentiating With Institutions And Ultra-High-Net-Worth Investors As A Serious Investment Firm, With Lori Van Dusen

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 345th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Lori Van Dusen. Lori is the CEO of LVW Advisors, an independent RIA based in Pittsford, New York, that oversees more than $2 billion in assets under management for over 450 small-to-mid-sized institutions and ultra-high-net-worth families. What's unique about Lori, though, is how through her multi-decade career, she has built a deep expertise in the investment intricacies and complex issue

Investing 197

More Trending

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Maintaining Elder Independence Without Burdening Families

Advisor Perspectives

Here is a tale of two families who were alike in many ways, including political and religious beliefs, income, and net worth. But they were drastically different in how they approached aging.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: CVS, Chubb, Morgan Stanley & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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13 Midweek Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Aug. 9, 2023)

Wealth Management

Banks are facing a tough market in trying to sell their commercial real estate loans, reports Bloomberg. The GOP and commercial real estate executives are teaming up against a Treasury Department proposal to impose new taxes on REITs, according to Commercial Observer. These are among the must reads from around the commercial real estate industry today.

Taxes 98
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Do You Have What It Takes To Be A Modern “Financial Advisor” Elder?

NAIFA Advisor Today

What is a Modern Elder? The Modern Elder Academy describes modern elders as people in midlife (45–65) or older who are as curious as they are wise.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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RIA Edge Podcast: Perigon’s Arthur Ambarik on the Journey to Build a $6B RIA

Wealth Management

Arthur Ambarik shares the story of Perigon’s evolution from a small firm with under $150 million in assets under management to its current status of about $6 billion in AUM.

Assets 98
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Streamline your way to client satisfaction

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Kate Zabriskie To prospects and clients, financial advisors seem to offer similar products. The difference is in client service. In this area, there may be much room for improvement as sometimes we unnecessarily complicate service and client interactions. When that happens, at best, those decisions make the client experience less enjoyable. At worst, unneeded complexity opens the door to complaints, bad reviews and competitors.

Clients 77
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Altruist Moves to Hybrid Work Environment

Wealth Management

Coming off the launch of its self-clearing platform and acquisition of SSG, the Los Angeles-headquartered RIA custodian plans to double office space in Culver City and bring employees back to the office.

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Why I’m Not Worried About $1 Trillion in Credit Card Debt

A Wealth of Common Sense

In the grand scheme of things consumer debt is still a relatively new phenomenon. Back in the 1800s and early 1900s banks didn’t extend consumer loans widely because most people assumed consumer credit was too dangerous. The assumption was consumers needed protection from themselves. This is still true for some people but the economy never would have grown as much as it has if there wasn’t so much borrowing.

Economy 70
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Investors Still Find Self Storage an Attractive Option. But the Math on New Deals Has Changed.

Wealth Management

Flat rent growth in recent months and a higher cost of capital have made even well-capitalized players more cautious.

Math 98
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Animal Spirits: Things No One Would Have Predicted

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts: Submit your email here to receive 20% off a YCharts subscription for new clients On today’s show, we discuss: Even when the stock market goes up it still goes down On the ‘course’ to a new normal Dalio says the $73t great wealth transfer isn’t just from boomers to millennials – it’s from the government to you and me Americans ow.

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Wall Street to Pay Hundreds of Millions More in WhatsApp Cases

Wealth Management

In all, the CFTC announced penalties of $260 million, while the SEC said that firms had agreed to pay it $289 million.

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Demonstrating Your Value

Advisor Perspectives

The most frequent question I’m asked when mentoring newer advisors is, “How do I demonstrate my value to prospects?

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Use the Summer Slowdown to Conduct a Fee Audit

Wealth Management

And avoid uncomfortable conversations about bill discrepancies.

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Healthcare Costs After Retirement — Securing Your Parents’ Future

Fortune Financial

Healthcare Costs After Retirement — Securing Your Parents’ Future Retirement is a long-awaited phase of life where individuals can enjoy the fruits of their labor and enjoy well-deserved rest. However, one significant concern that often lingers in the minds of retirees and their families is healthcare costs. With medical expenses on the rise, planning for healthcare during retirement becomes crucial to ensure a secure future.

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Transition to fees in 5 simple steps

Advisor Perspectives

See how to tackle the obstacles advisors commonly cite to making the transition to fee-based with guidance, best practices, and insights to help you pave the way to a fee-based model.

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Understanding Double Top and Double Bottom Chart Patterns

Trade Brains

Double Top and Double Bottom Chart Patterns: Every trend no matter how significant it is eventually comes to an end. At the end of these trends lies a trading opportunity for reversal. In order to take advantage of these opportunities one has to be able to identify the reversals patterns in the price of the security. While there are various technical tools that can help one in identifying reversals in the market, chart patterns are a classic way to do so.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

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July 2023 Update

ModernAdvisor

Commentary Encouraging inflation data created a note of optimism that this interest rate tightening cycle is peaking. The narrative is how central banks can engineer a so-called Goldilocks scenario of cooling the economy without mis-stepping and becoming overly restrictive. Not too hot, not too cold. The concern is that inflation becomes ingrained and lasts longer than expected.

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NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased Slightly, Mortgage Balances "Unchanged"

Calculated Risk

From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Reaches $17.06 Trillion in Q2 2023; Credit Card Debt Exceeds $1 Trillion The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows a slight uptick in total household debt in the second quarter of 2023, increasing by $16 billion (0.1%) to $17.06 trillion.

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Reaches 8-Month High

Advisor Perspectives

The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Survey increased to 91.9 in July. The latest reading was just above the forecast of 90.6. This marks the 19th consecutive month the index has been below the series average of 98. The index is at the 14th percentile in this series.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in July

Calculated Risk

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Recedes 1% in July The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, declined 0.9% in July to 193.4 (2000=100) from the revised June reading of 195.1. Over the month, the commercial component of the DMI remained relatively flat, ticking down 0.2%, while the institutional component fell 1.9%.

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Market Drama

Zoe Financial

Market Drama Featuring Zoe CEO & Founder, Andres Garcia-Amaya, CFA August 8, 2023 Watch Time: 2 minutes Welcome to this week’s Market Drama! The Stock Market: The S&P 500 was down and so was Nasdaq. The sell-off in stocks and bonds came in the back of Fitch downgrading the U.S. government credit rating. We had mixed data for jobs and wages.

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Introducing Our Updated Tobias Mobile Application

Tobias Financial

Our team at Tobias Financial Advisors is always looking for ways to improve our service. After recently launching our updated financial portal to provide an enhanced experience when viewing your account information, we are excited to announce that our Tobias Mobile application is also updated and ready to download! Through it, you will have access to your investment portfolio anytime, anywhere you go.