Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. This graph shows the total number of registered vehicles in the U.S.

Sales 77

Sales Numbers Economy 77

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 7th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 139

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 139

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 4th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 140

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 140

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of July 31st. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 144

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 144

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. The post Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic appeared first on The Big Picture.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 89

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 89

Abnormal Returns

MAY 21, 2023

washingtonpost.com) Economy American consumer behavior is normalizing. tker.co) The mix of light vehicle sales keeps shifting toward pickups and SUVs. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media A growing number of New York City office buildings are emptying out. noahpinion.blog) The NBA is a model for immigration policy.

Financial Advising 184

Financial Advising Startup Taxes Financial Services 184

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 30th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 102

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 102

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Retail and food service sales have increased at an 8.6% Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4% Since then, the economy has accelerated. At Carson, we have consistently believed the economy is resilient and will avoid a recession.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 21st. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 111

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 111

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

It has been interesting watching these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 25th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 13th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 23rd. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 106

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 106

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 4th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 1st.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 15th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 97

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 97

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 28th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 101

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 101

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 8th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 27th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 94

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 94

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 18th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 91

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 91

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of August 14th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of December 11th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 87

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 87

Abnormal Returns

JULY 18, 2022

bloomberg.com) When lower sales make for lower losses. wired.com) Global Covid and the war in Ukraine remain as two big wild cards for the global economy. nytimes.com) Covid did a number on global childhood vaccinations. npr.org) Economy The story of the economy is inflation, inflation and inflation.

Financial Advising 208

Financial Advising Startup Economy Portfolio 208

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 20th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 82

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 82

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of July 24th. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. wsj.com) Sketchy products keep showing up for sale on Amazon ($AMZN). theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet."

Ethics 187

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 187

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. This data is as of October 2nd. Click on graph for larger image. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.

Economy 68

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 68

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? We have already seen a massive slowdown in home sales. The economy, corporate revenues, earnings, and consumer spending are to some degree path dependent. Here are five of those questions: 1. The trillion-dollar question.

Economy 343

Economy Economics Engineering Food 343

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

Schroders ) • The Exact Age When You Make Your Best Financial Decisions There’s a magic number for when your expertise and cognitive powers align. economy is doing well, why do so many Americans say it’s terrible? Savings rates have rocketed and UK savers can earn over 5% on deposits. With the 10 year at 4.2% 1987 Crash 3.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

My morning train reads: • The Economy Is Great. Wall Street Journal ) • The Bond Market, a Sleeping Giant, Awakes : Soaring interest rates have the power to alter the direction of the economy and command the attention of Washington, our columnist says. ( Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood?

Advertising 130

Advertising Portfolio Management Economy Communication 130

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Rather than accept their fate, Americans used free money offered by the private unregulated banking system in the form of Home Sales, HELOCs, and Refinancings.

Medicine 325

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 325

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2023

Here is their weekly report from economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 1, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2%. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 21% from one year ago.

Sales 65

Sales Numbers Economy Marketing 65

MarketWatch

JANUARY 31, 2023

in premarket trading Tuesday, after activist investor Ancora Holdings Group LLC urged the ethanol producer and grain handling company to explore a sale. GPRE shot up 5.5% billion.

Sales 40

Sales Economy Numbers Marketing 40

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 2, 2023

This month's edition kicks off with the news that custodial platform Altruist is eliminating the $1 per account monthly fee for its portfolio management and reporting technology for advisors on its platform, which on the one hand suggests that the economies of scale Altruist has achieved in the wake of its move to become a fully self-clearing custodian (..)

Communication 219

Communication Portfolio Management Clients Tax Planning 219

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Economy Added 263,000 Jobs in November" Both reports and mainstream in general miss the big picture captured in my lead chart.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

JUNE 24, 2023

To be a successful investor you need to possess a number of different traits. You need to understand how corporations and the global economy generally function over the long haul. New York Times ) • From Dylan to Bieber, catalogue sales are the megadeals taking over music : Some call it song management, others royalty acquisition.

Math 258

Math Advertising Financial Advice Assets 258

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2023

Fundamental changes are taking place in the labor economy, especially within the service sector. Training for sales is time-consuming, and margins are razor thin, even in high end stores that are known for fatter profits. Perhaps a few anecdotes 1 might illuminate this: We tend to cook during the week and go out to eat on weekends.

Retail 313

Retail Food Manufacturing Economy 313

Carson Wealth

APRIL 8, 2024

economy continues to look solid, with markets rallying Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. gain, but not a bad number by any means. Of course, markets will ultimately respond to movement in the economy and corporate America, which we discuss below. economy, and the job market is leading the way.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 96