Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December. The BEA estimates sales of 13.31 from the November sales rate, and up 4.7% The first graph shows annual sales since 1976. Light vehicle sales in 2022 were at 13.73 Light vehicle sales in 2022 were at 13.73 Sales were decent in December.

Sales 95

Sales Economy 95

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 24, 2024

Forecasters who follow the US economy found themselves in a familiar place after a recent retail sales report: revising up their estimates for GDP.

Economy 52

Economy Retail Sales 52

Trade Brains

JULY 6, 2022

Understanding How Does Stock Market Affect The Economy: The stock market and the economy are in a lot of talk in recent days. Seeing the market indexes declined by over 30% within a month, an obvious question among people is to understand how does the stock market affects the economy. How the Stock Market Affect the Economy?

Economy 98

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 98

MarketWatch

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

stock indexes opened lower on Wednesday after January retail sales number came in higher than expected, a sign that the U.S. Sales at U.S. Sales at U.S. Retail sales are a big part of consumer spending and could offer clues about the strength of the economy. The S&P 500 was off 0.6%

Retail 98

Retail Sales Economy Economics 98

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 14, 2024

riabiz.com) How this hedge fund cleaned up on the sale of Seagen to Pfizer ($PFE). slate.com) Economy Why everyone keeps underestimating the strength of the U.S. Finance Franklin Templeton ($BEN) is moving aggressively beyond stocks and bonds. wsj.com) How fast can Blackrock ($BLK) really grow earnings?

Financial Advising 205

Financial Advising Medical Media Food 205

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 27, 2024

The housing market, a key driver of the economy, has struggled of late. Sales of previously owned US homes just had their worst year since 1995, and affordability recently hit a record low by one measure.

Sales 52

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 52

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 5, 2024

ft.com) Economy The U.S. is leading the global economy, post-pandemic. minneapolisfed.org) Heavy truck sales rose in January. (dariusforoux.com) More evidence that people respond to price signals. awealthofcommonsense.com) The Fed chair doesn't do interviews very often. axios.com) Just how tight is monetary policy right now?

Financial Advising 235

Financial Advising Media Valuation Economy 235

Advisor Perspectives

FEBRUARY 25, 2024

Recently I saw a T-shirt for sale that said, “Science Doesn’t Care What You Think.” ” I used a similar metaphor recently, observing how many experiments show that jumping off a cliff will send you rapidly downward. If you want to test that theory, please add me to your will first.

Economy 52

Economy Sales 52

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dropped 2.0% in August Pending home sales sagged for the third straight month in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.0% The Northeast PHSI decreased 3.4%

Sales 98

Sales Economy 98

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 19, 2024

Markets TIPS are on sale. notboring.co) Economy The rapidity of the rise in prices makes it feel all the worse. Time to buy. morningstar.com) Two reasons why yields are higher this year. carsongroup.com) The stock-bond correlation has flipped positive. awealthofcommonsense.com) The case for a Fed rate cut this year.

Startup 243

Startup Financial Advising Media Economy 243

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Light-Vehicle Sales to Slow from Prior Month; Still Point to Stronger Q4 (pay content). This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for November (Red). million SAAR, would be down 3% from last month, but up 11% from a year ago (sales weakened in the second half of 2021, due to supply chain issues).

Sales 97

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 97

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

wsj.com) Economy When will the Fed cut rates? calculatedriskblog.com) The bull case for the global economy. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media There is no shortage of new, trophy apartments for sale in Manhattan. (washingtonpost.com) Global China's push into solar is creating supply guts across the globe. axios.com)

Education 253

Education Startup Financial Advising Economy 253

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 14, 2023

perfectputt.beehiiv.com) Economy What cardboard prices are saying about the economy. calculatedriskblog.com) Retail sales are slowing. (huddleup.substack.com) Lighted par-three golf is the next growth channel for the sport. wsj.com) If anything, weekly initial unemployment claims are trending down, not up.

Financial Advising 274

Financial Advising Retail Media Economy 274

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $91 million last week, down about 39% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 3rd.

Economy 136

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 136

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 21, 2023

There have been some complicating factors over the past 2 weeks, but rising rate momentum is still mostly about the economy. As such, it's the economy that will need to demonstrate a shift before we see meaningful relief. Until then, the path of least resistance is the path we've been seeing. Today was just another day on that path. [

Sales 52

Sales Manufacturing Economy 52

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $82 million last week, down about 44% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 8th.

Economy 145

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 145

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 5, 2024

biopharmadive.com) Economy Heavy truck sales increased in February. (linkedin.com) Pharma Pfizer ($PFE) is feeling a Covid era hangover. downtownjoshbrown.com) Bayer is not splitting up into three companies, for now. calculatedriskblog.com) Office vacancy rates are only going up.

Financial Advising 260

Financial Advising Media Economy Sales 260

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 19, 2023

ft.com) Sentiment How media is driving a wedge between the economy and sentiment. disciplinefunds.com) Existing home sales are in free fall. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economy Still no sign of a pick up in weekly initial unemployment claims. (wsj.com) Mortgage rates have hit 8%. calculatedriskblog.com) Dr. Copper should be retired.

Financial Advising 212

Financial Advising Investing Investments Media 212

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $71 million last week, down about 52% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 22nd.

Economy 137

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 137

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $78 million last week, down about 53% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through September 1st.

Economy 140

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 140

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $151 million last week, down about 40% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 4th.

Economy 140

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 140

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 19, 2024

podcasts.apple.com) Economy Consumer sentiment is rapidly rebounding. advisorperspectives.com) Existing home sales hit a 28-year low in 2023. (om.co) Oil The U.S. is putting OPEC to shame. qz.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk U.S. oil production with Javier Blas. wsj.com) Q4 GDP is trending around 1.6%.

Financial Advising 259

Financial Advising Media Economy Sales 259

Advisor Perspectives

JULY 2, 2023

In this article, we take a deeper look into three key housing releases from the past week: existing home sales, building permits, and housing starts. By examining this data, we gain valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and the broader economy.

Economy 52

Economy Marketing Marketing Sales 52

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

Back in early 2009, I wrote a couple of posts arguing there would be an increase in auto sales - Vehicle Sales (Jan 2009) and Looking for the Sun (Feb 2009). This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. And in April 2020, sales collapsed due to the onset of the pandemic.

Sales 82

Sales Numbers Economy 82

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 8, 2023

Retail sales rebounded in April, and core retail sales (which excludes autos, gas, and building supplies) were even stronger. economy is being extended by strength within the labor market which is supporting further spending by households. percent as tight conditions persist across the labor market.

Economy 52

Economy Marketing Marketing Retail 52

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $194 million last week, down about 29% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 28th.

Economy 144

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 144

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 93

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 93

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2023

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for July: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Post 11th Straight Increase in July (pay site). Assuming no shocks to the economy, sales appear easily on their way to reaching the 15.4 However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues. of the market.

Sales 52

Sales Economy Accounting Marketing 52

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2023

Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking to 15.8-Million However, as with July due to its atypical fifth weekend, there is upside to Q3, as well as the rest of the year, though that depends on continued steadiness in the economy, no major geopolitical disruptions and the impact from possible labor walkouts. From WardsAuto: July U.S.

Sales 52

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 52

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

on.ft.com) Paramount Global ($PARA) may be for sale, but who would be buying? barrons.com) Economy Higher goods prices are driving negative sentiment. (wsj.com) Meanwhile there are plenty of other goings-on in the exchange space. blockworks.co) Media Bob Iger is facing multiple challenges at Disney ($DIS).

Financial Advising 234

Financial Advising Media Economy Sales 234

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 20, 2023

theinformation.com) The bloom is off the 'passion economy' rose? ft.com) Economy Existing home sales plunged in December. bonddad.blogspot.com) Why falling retail sales aren't all bad. (news.crunchbase.com) Crypto companies, like FTX, invested in a bunch of crypto startups. Those stakes are set to change hands.

Investing 210

Investing Investments Startup Financial Advising 210

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $99 million last week, down about 54% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 18th.

Economy 116

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 116

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

Additionally, retail sales kicked off the year with a large jump, suggesting the very tight labor market and solid income growth is supporting more-than-healthy consumer activity. Retail sales surge Retail sales experienced rarely-seen growth in January after declining in four of the previous six months. percent in January.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Retail Sales 52

MarketWatch

FEBRUARY 6, 2023

Sales are expected to be $454 million to $456 million, compared with the FactSet consensus of $468 million. On top of a weaker economy, the company said it experienced “decade-high cotton costs, higher costs from have to using airfreight due to supply chain delays and higher container costs. The stock has rallied 22.6%

Economy 75

Economy Sales Economics Marketing 75

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 24, 2023

It signals a hard landing ahead for the broad economy. Existing home sales fall following a jump in February Existing home sales declined in March, retracing some of the 13.8% Sales are down a sharp 30% from January 2022. Existing home sales dropped 2.4 percent in March to an annualized sales pace of 4.44

Economics 52

Economics Economy Sales Food 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May.1 The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” 6 Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month.7

Economy 52

Economy Economics Retail Tax Planning 52

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

Movie ticket sales were at $147 million last week, down about 7% from the median for the week. -- Hotel Occupancy: STR -- This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 27th.

Economy 104

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 104