Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

markets.businessinsider.com) Companies How retailers have responded to the post-pandemic era. morningstar.com) Economy The August NFP showed continued growth and a 3.8% ritholtz.com) Seven economic myths including that the consumer is 'tapped out.' awealthofcommonsense.com) U.S unemployment rate. wsj.com) The U.S.

Financial Advising 223

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Retail 223

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 24, 2023

The latest batch of economic data continue to signal that a recession is on the horizon — we still foresee a downturn unfolding in the second half of the year. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) posted its 12th straight monthly decline, falling to its lowest level since November 2020. from a year ago. jump in February.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Sales Food 52

The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. Perhaps even more surprising has been the wholesale abandonment of specific industries: Food service, retail, etc., It stays local and is likely to benefit the regional economy.

Food 364

Food Economy Retail Retirement 364

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 22, 2023

Whether the Fed raises rate or holds steady on Wednesday, we see the unfortunate banking developments and ensuing tightening of lending standards as reinforcing our view that the economy is headed for a moderate recession in the second half of the 2023. Retail sales declined 0.4 Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.

Economics 98

Economics Banking Sales Retail 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2023

Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. The near-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable or having slightly weaker growth.

Economics 59

Economics Retail Manufacturing Banking 59

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. championbets.com.au) Economy What odds do term spread models put on a recession? economist.com) Five economic reasons to be thankful, including low unemployment claims. calculatedriskblog.com) Why you can safely ignore holiday retail spending forecasts.

Financial Advising 241

Financial Advising Retail Economy Media 241

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Retail and food service sales have increased at an 8.6% Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4% in the third quarter.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 10, 2023

The new orders components in both surveys provide evidence of weakening economic demand, and the surveys are consistent with a slowing economy. percent decline in retail sales, which would be the fourth decline in the past five months. March’s job market readings fit the theme of slowing, but not plunging, economic growth.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 11, 2023

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. was only marginally better.

Economy 98

Economy Manufacturing Clients Economics 98

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 20, 2023

B) Retail investors hold a miniscule amount of long-term bonds. According to the Fed retail investors hold just 9% of outstanding bonds. That would mean that long-term Treasury Bonds are less than 1% of the average retail investor’s assets. 3) The “This is Fine” Economy.

Economy 76

Economy Retail Government Banking 76

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

etf.com) Companies Retailers are blaming organized theft as an excuse to close stores. finance.yahoo.com) Economy The ISM Manufacturing index fell for the 12th straight month. advisorperspectives.com) Americans aren't used to economic volatility. (on.spdji.com) Rates The Treasury market has become the hot new market.

Financial Advising 162

Financial Advising Retail Manufacturing Media 162

Nationwide Financial

DECEMBER 19, 2022

In his comments, Chairman Powell maintained a hawkish stance as the Fed continues to prioritize reducing inflation, even if it means some economic pain. Although total retail sales were down in November, spending at restaurants remained strong – now up 14 percent over the past year. Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.

Economics 52

Economics Retail Transportation Sales 52

Abnormal Returns

JULY 23, 2023

ft.com) How Schwab ($SCHW) plans to profit from integrating TD Ameritrade retail customers. anneapplebaum.com) Economy Why haven't higher interest rates wrecked the economy already? awealthofcommonsense.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. wired.com) Why Egyptian men are fleeing to Europe.

Financial Advising 222

Financial Advising Insurance Economy Retail 222

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 8, 2023

Retail sales rebounded in April, and core retail sales (which excludes autos, gas, and building supplies) were even stronger. economy is being extended by strength within the labor market which is supporting further spending by households. percent as tight conditions persist across the labor market.

Economy 52

Economy Marketing Marketing Retail 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May.1 1 Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Business Cycle Dating.

Economy 52

Economy Economics Retail Tax Planning 52

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 31, 2022

institutionalinvestor.com) Are retail investors going to return to crypto? economist.com) With economic sanctions in place, it's back to the future for the Russian auto industry. fortune.com) Economy Three things that are dampening economic pain, including remote work. wsj.com) People are removing.eth from their profiles.

Financial Advising 217

Financial Advising Media Valuation Retail 217

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2023

They also wrote the 2011 bestseller “ Reckless Endangerment: How Outsized Ambition, Greed and Corruption Led to Economic Armageddon ,” about the mortgage crisis. economy, but American society as a whole. KKR) — have grown to have an outsized impact on not just the U.S. taxpayers 180 billion dollars per decade.

Taxes 319

Taxes Retail Economy Economics 319

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

The large declines in retail sales in December and November signals that consumer spending lost a lot of steam despite some cooling in inflation as we ended 2022. 1) Retail sales trending down Retail sales fell by at least one percent for a second straight month in December. economy should expand 3.2 percent from 4.7

Economics 52

Economics Retail Sales Engineering 52

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 15, 2023

tker.co) Reg D offerings for retail investors are often illiquid, low information and high fee. wsj.com) Has economics run out of big ideas? economist.com) Economy Barry Ritholtz, "It may surprise you to learn that during this cycle of falling inflation, there seems to be little correlation with rising Fed Rates."

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Economy Retail Economics 130

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating.

Economics 332

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 332

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 25, 2023

wsj.com) Retail Dollar stores are attracting a more upscale crowd these days. axios.com) Economy Where various recession probability models stand. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. (axios.com) Why everybody and their brother submitted a spot Bitcoin ETF application this week. to charity.

Financial Advising 199

Financial Advising Valuation Retail Media 199

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Billions of Dollars at Stake in a Puzzling Holiday Shopping Season : It promises to be unpredictable, with retailers and consumers still figuring out how much will be spent and on what kinds of goods. ( Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research ). • The Political Economy Blog ). Businessweek ). New York Times ). •

Commission 302

Commission Budgeting Economics Retail 302

Nationwide Financial

DECEMBER 12, 2022

December 15: Retail sales projected to pull back in November. percent drop in auto sales heavily weighing on the headline reading, retail sales likely fell 0.4 However, due to the headwinds from slower global economic activity and reduced domestic order books, the manufacturing sector is cooling. Due to the 3.4 percent overall.

Economics 52

Economics Retail Sales Manufacturing 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

It uses (13 or so) inputs 1 to extrapolate a rough approximation of economic growth. I find these to be useful models but must constantly remind myself that they are merely rough approximations of the BEA GDP , which itself is a rough approximation of the US economy. Higgins Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July 1, 2014 1.

Banking 141

Banking Economics Retail Economy 141

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

FOMC Says Inflation Is Still Too High Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Concerns over a firmer monetary policy were heightened by fresh economic data, touching off a climb in bond yields and a slide in stock prices last week. However, members diverged on the economy, with some members finding the risk of recession elevated.

Economics 59

Economics Taxes Investment Advisor Investing 59

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 19, 2023

rationalwalk.com) How Covid changed retail (and restaurants). wsj.com) Economy Are bank failures actually helping the Fed crush inflation? tker.co) The economic schedule for the coming week. (allstarcharts.com) Companies Growth in spending on SaaS services is slowing. tomtunguz.com) Why Berkshire Hathaway's ($BRK.A)

Financial Advising 191

Financial Advising Retail Media Economy 191

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

Wired ) see also How Social Media Shapes Economic Perception : tiktok, inflation vs jobs, and discontent. Wall Street Journal ) • Investors shake up VC market by raising money to buy out start-ups : Aim is to take advantage of economic headwinds to acquire promising businesses at a discount.

Media 130

Media Assets Food Economics 130

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 9, 2022

(behaviouralinvestment.com) Companies AMC ($AMC) keep playing to the retail crowd. riabiz.com) Economy Claudia Sahm, "Covid is the root cause of the economic mess today." hollywoodreporter.com) Signs that the CHIPS Act is already working. bloomberg.com) ETFs Fees matter, a lot, when it comes to ETF flows.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Retail Media Economy 130

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

theatlantic.com) Finding a good retail CEO is tough these days. bloomberg.com) Economy What does a 'no landing' economic scenario look like? (theblock.co) Companies Cory Doctorow, "In its nearly 25-year history, Google has made one and a half successful products: a once-great search engine and a pretty good Hotmail clone.

Financial Advising 147

Financial Advising Engineering Valuation Retail 147

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 18, 2023

angellist.com) Economic uncertainty is not slow the pace of investment at Brookfield Infrastructure Partners ($BIP). institutionalinvestor.com) Economy Retail sales fell 1.1% (institutionalinvestor.com) Startup valuations trended down in the second half of 2022. in December 2022.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Startup Wealth Management Valuation 130

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 6, 2023

Retail activity as a percentage of the total market is at a record high, reflecting the buy-the-dip mentality, and has hints of the “gamification” of the market seen in 2021. With so much emotion driving institutional investors, retail investors seem calm and measured by comparison.

Economics 59

Economics Marketing Marketing Retail 59

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

The economy remains strong, the consumer is healthy, the wall of worry is intact, and manufacturing is bottoming. The Consumer Is Strong We’ve been hearing for two years that the consumer was tapped out and the economy was headed for a recession. Retail investors sold stocks to the tune of $15.6 But that was just a survey.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Retail 96

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 19, 2022

papers.ssrn.com) Economy Ben Carlson, "The Fed sounds serious about hitting its 2% target but it’s likely not going to happen overnight." awealthofcommonsense.com) Traditional economic models are all that helpful at the moment. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media How retailers use holiday music to get you in the buying mood.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Retail Media Taxes 130

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 14, 2022

npr.org) Economy Retail sales are pointing to weaker growth. axios.com) Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, is the new, new 'Fed whisperer.' (investmentnews.com) Florida How Hurricane Ian is going to affect the Florida housing market. bonddad.blogspot.com) Apartment rents are in decline.

Marketing 130

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Retail 130

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Nationwide Financial

MAY 16, 2023

With most balance sheets for consumers and businesses in a solid state, Nationwide Economics is anticipating a moderate downturn later this year. KB: With a recession likely in the coming year, Nationwide Economics expects the unemployment rate to rise as businesses cut costs in response to reduced sales and recessionary impacts.

Economics 52

Economics Retirement Clients Retirement Planning 52