Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 20, 2023

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” – this week’s edition kicks off with the news that several states are considering a series of tax hikes targeting higher-income and ultra-high-net-worth residents after similar proposals failed to pass at the Federal level.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 17, 2025

WAAV seems Permanent Portfolio inspired which is why I threw in AQRIX and PRPFX along with VBAIX as a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio makes sense as a benchmark. Both the ACWI and SPY versions outperformed AQRIX which is sort of a risk parity fund and PRPFX which is the Permanent Portfolio. The results are a mixed bag.

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Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

This is before we get to the issue of capital gains taxes, which create a hurdle of (minimum) 20% on those pesky profits just to get to breakeven. Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 11, 2023

Bloomberg ) • What Is the Future of the 60/40 Portfolio? Already a trope in transition, the traditional portfolio had a rough 2022, so modern-day allocators must evaluate all potential paths forward. Chief Investment Officer ) • Tax Season Is Around the Corner. 6 Ways to Lower Your Bill.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 19, 2024

Barron's had an article about rebalancing portfolios noting that the run in stocks was a good time to rebalance the equity allocation back down closer to target, whatever that might be and also rebalance down some of the relative winners. Over the years, I've trimmed here and there when holdings get too big relative to the portfolio.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 14, 2024

With so much allocated to T-bills, it makes sense that the standard deviations of the barbell portfolios is so much lower. The 2022 results, not captured above are also interesting. We can only get the last 11 months of 2022 but it is still interesting.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 2, 2025

We talk about this some but when you try to understand how well a holding has done or how well a portfolio has done, it is important to understand the track record. The Invenomic Fund (BIVIX) that we've looked at a few times is seriously skewed by two phenomenal years in 2021 and 2022 when it was up 61% and then 50%.

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Integrity Financial Planning

JUNE 12, 2023

As you plan for retirement, it’s important to consider tax optimization strategies to minimize your tax liabilities. Here are three key ways to optimize taxes in retirement, based on information from sources published between 2022 and 2023.

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Good Financial Cents

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

In this guide, we’re going to present the 10 best long-term investment strategies for 2022. The table below provides a quick summary of each of the 10 best long-term investment strategies for 2022, along with the main features and benefits of each. Below is our list of the 10 best long-term investment strategies for 2022.

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Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

Furthermore, inflation, though down from its peak in early 2022, remains above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% despite the bank's attempts to tamp it down. What's driving many of the economic conditions today are higher interest rates resulting from the Fed's efforts to fight inflation. And even though U.S.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 5, 2025

In 2022, it was up 104 basis points (total return). It is not intended to be a surrogate for a 60/40 portfolio, although it was close in 2024, and it clearly will not and is not intended to look like the US equity market. The correlation of the portfolio to the S&P 500 isn't that low at 0.64 The results were fascinating.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

My firm RWM uses Canvas for those clients who want their portfolios to reflect their values. The most popular ESG application of direct indexing software has been to remove guns and tobacco from portfolios. It reflects the desire for investors to have their portfolios reflect their personal values. Oct 31, 2023) 4.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 26, 2024

Let's continue the conversation about all-weather generically and then the Cockroach Portfolio. First a comparison of the Permanent Portfolio Mutual Fund (PRPFX) versus a 60/40 portfolio comprised of two Vanguard mutual funds. Putting 20% in VIXM pretty much doomed that version of the portfolio.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 19, 2024

We work on theoretical portfolios here all the time that blend in strategies that really are negatively correlated or at least very little correlation. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns. Enduring a bear market is about both, behavior and portfolio construction.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008-09, the income portion of portfolios has been almost an afterthought. For the decade1 from 2012 to 2022, 10-year Treasuries yielded less than 3% and averaged closer to 2%. Muni bonds were yielding 2-3%, a tax equivalent (depending on the state you lived in and your tax bracket) of ~4-5%.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 3, 2023

Portfolio 1 is 70% allocated to a low vol equity proxy and 30% to an alternative strategy that is intended to look like a horizontal line that tilts upward. Portfolio 2 is 100% Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio and Portfolio 3 is the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

In the stock market, its anyone with a portfolio or 401k/IRA or trading account. They are why you sometimes owe capital gains taxes on mutual funds you have not yet sold. April 28, 2022). They do not follow the fiduciary rule but instead swap hats on a whim. You probably do not think very often about who your co-investors are.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 20, 2025

First I asked it to suggest an all-weather portfolio that included managed futures. As we often see, a decent portfolio strategy this time from AI that can be improved upon. Both exchange portfolios held up much better in 2022. I played around a little bit with Claude AI from Anthropic. What about NZX Limited?

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 3, 2025

I do not think a two or three fund portfolio is optimal but it is valid and I think it is hard to justify some sort of model with a lot of funds that results just like a 60/40 mutual fund like Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). Portfolio 2 is plain vanilla 60/40. I think the great results in 2022 are skewing the entire backtest.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 3, 2025

Interest rates going up doesn't worry me from a portfolio perspective, I pretty much don't have any interest rate risk in the portfolio. My first thought is to think about the all-weather attributes of Permanent Portfolio-inspired, quadrant investing. Portfolio 3 is sort of close to what we blog about regularly.

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Harness Wealth

APRIL 15, 2025

Data from the Federal Reserves 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) (released in late 2023) offers the most recent comprehensive snapshot of American household wealth. Find Your Wealth Advisor at Harness How Net Worth Is Changing in America From 2016 to 2022, the median U.S. Whats on the Average American Balance Sheet?

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Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Resilience is Core to Sustainable Portfolio Construction. Wed, 09/21/2022 - 10:50. While the old adage “only time will tell” generally refers to a future outcome, it is apropos of our belief that a truly sustainable portfolio must consist of businesses that have proven to be resilient under a variety of macroeconomic circumstances.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 12, 2025

The idea is that you get the full beta (stocks and bonds) return with just a portion of the portfolio often with futures or some other form of leverage, leaving dollars left over to add alternatives all in pursuit of better nominal returns or better risk adjusted returns. The fourth portfolio more closely aligns with what we do here.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 14, 2025

Dave Nadig found a potential tax problem in the fine print. Apparently it is not diversified enough to meet RIC, regulated investment company, standards which as Dave tells it would nullify the tax benefits associated with ETFs. Both portfolios have higher returns and lower standard deviations than PRPFX and VBAIX.

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Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

2022 marks the 50 th anniversary of the enrollment of students into the first Certified Financial Planner (CFP) course, and in the years since then, financial planning (and the process of creating a financial plan) has changed extensively.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 17, 2024

It did very well in the Pandemic Crash but not so well in 2022. From the AQR site , QSPIX "aims to deliver attractive risk adjusted returns with low correlation to traditional stock/bond portfolios by investing in a broad and diversified range of alternative risk premia." TAIL owns puts and intermediate treasuries.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

When I was working on yesterday's post I stumbled back into the Return Stacked 60/40 Absolute Return Index which is a portfolio funds blended together with a lot of embedded leverage in pursuit of capital efficiency. It's a very sophisticated portfolio. Here's what it is in the portfolio and the notional exposures.

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Your Richest Life

JANUARY 27, 2025

Active investing involves a hands-on approach to managing your portfolio. If you are a skilled investor and well-versed in market fluctuations, you may be able to capitalize on quick opportunities, or sell off a security before your portfolio takes a hit. It also means that when the market is down, your portfolio may be down with it.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 28, 2024

I would describe the paper as seeking how to use low volatility equities in various ways to replace some or all of a traditional 60% equities/40% bonds portfolio. All three portfolios outperform VBAIX which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio and they do so with lower volatility and better Sharpe Ratios.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 2, 2025

As is often the case for this subject, someone talked about building a dividend portfolio and living off the dividends. The yields of Portfolios 1 and 2 are now higher than SCHD due primarily to XYLD having a higher payout than it used to. Generically, dividends are not tax efficient. They are taxed at ordinary income.

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Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

bloomberg.com) Bitcoin is at its highest level since June 2022. ft.com) Why where investors mark the portfolios can be all over the place. axios.com) Funds Tax efficiency is the secret sauce of ETFs. Markets The FTSE 100 Index has risen above 8,000 points for the first time ever. pragcap.com) Fidelity is hiring!

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Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 25, 2023

Review risk tolerance and current asset allocation strategy It’s important to ensure your clients’ portfolios align with their risk tolerance because taking too much risk can negatively impact their ability to navigate market fluctuations. Suppose they made emotional investment decisions during the market volatility of 2022.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

First Meb Faber and Michael Gayed had a podcast that covered endowment style and permanent portfolio among other things. It seems like many endowments along with other types of sophisticated pools of capital are Permanent Portfolio inspired as Jason Buck said a couple of months ago. I believe there is a lot of overlap between the two.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 3, 2024

Portfolio 2 is 100% to Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. The portfolio stats are across the board better than VBAIX. With 75% in T-bills as constructed, the portfolio is pretty resistant to an adverse sequence of returns. Looking annually it is a little choppier. For XYLD it is 5.94

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 15, 2025

We talked at length in 2022 and into 2023 when managed futures was booming and people were coming out of the woodwork to suggest huge weightings to managed futures which I said was a bad idea back then and is a bad idea right now in terms of constructing a portfolio. In that light, 20% or 25% makes no sense to me.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 26, 2023

Where I talk about portfolios that are simplicity hedged with a little complexity, while the simplicity is usually cheap, hopefully the complexity, although probably expensive in nominal terms, is also cheap versus the benefit delivered to the portfolio. Having almost half the portfolio in funds that cost 1.5-2%

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