Sat.Apr 26, 2025 - Fri.May 02, 2025

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Three Things – Big Ol’ Data Dump

Discipline Funds

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Does the Negative GDP Mean We’re in a Recession? We got a huge data dump on Wednesday including the first estimate of Q1 GDP which came in marginally negative at -0.3%. Net exports and government subtracted a total of 5.08% with exports making up the majority of that. But you had a lot of conflicting things going on under the surface.

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A Spectacularly Underappreciated 15 Years

The Big Picture

We have no idea how good we had it. Lets consider the returns data from the period post-Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and then unpack what it might mean. Starting January 1, 2010, the S&P 500 generated a total return (with dividends reinvested) of 566.8% , or 13.3% per year from the start of 2010 through the end of Q1 2025. The Nasdaq 100 has nearly doubled that.

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BEA: Real GDP decreased at 0.3% Annualized Rate in Q1

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

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How To Price Subscriptions

Wealth Management

A practical implementation guide of how financial advisors can implement a subscription payment model to clients beyond just charging the AUM fee.

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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Three keys to successful investing including 'Trying to time the market is a losers game.' (larryswedroe.substack.com) Volatility clusters. (tker.co) Why private assets are no portfolio panacea. (wsj.com) What earnings estimates are doing, depends on your time horizon. (tker.co) Being less stupid is easier than getting smarter. (betterletter.substack.com) What earnings estimates are doing, depends on your time horizon.

Assets 167
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Q&A: Your Money Map

The Big Picture

I chatted with Jean Chatzky of Your Money Map about HNTI and some general investing concepts. As always, we did notget to all of them, but they were so thoughtful, I wanted to share them with you. *Lets start with the why. Many, if not most, investing books aim to teach people how TO invest. Your focus is giving readers advice on how NOT to invest. Why did you decide to take this approach?

More Trending

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Deals & Moves: Savant Adds RIA with Tax Services; Mariner Snags $325M Firm

Wealth Management

In addition, Ceteras RIA TRPG brings on three advisors overseeing $180 million, while LPL picks up an advisor who had been overseeing $250 million with Raymond James.

Taxes 254
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Kitces & Carl Ep 163: Overcoming Objections When Clients Reject The Recommendation By Asking What You Missed

Nerd's Eye View

Advisors spend a lot of time crafting their financial advice recommendations – and how they deliver those recommendations – for their clients. These ultra-personalized suggestions are central to what makes financial advice valuable and can have a significant impact on a client's life. So, what happens when a client doesn't act on that advice – especially when their inaction can compromise their financial and holistic wellbeing?

Clients 146
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Wednesday links: cognitive passivity

Abnormal Returns

Markets The U.S. stock market still isn't cheap. (institutionalinvestor.com) Whose stock market is this? (axios.com) Exchanges Europe's stock market is shrinking due to M&A. (giftarticle.ft.com) How NYSE Chicago/Texas makes money. (joesaluzzi.substack.com) SPACs are bouncing back. (news.crunchbase.com) Fund management Target-date funds do what they say they do.

Startup 157
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Construction Spending Decreased 0.5% in March

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during March 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,196.1 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised February estimate of $2,206.9 billion. The March figure is 2.8 percent above the March 2024 estimate of $2,135.8 billion. emphasis added Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,688.0 billion, 0.6

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Your Accounting Expertise Will Only Get You So Far: What Really Matters

Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA

In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.

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Arta Finance: An AI-Powered Private Bank for the HENRYs

Wealth Management

Caesar Sengupta has big ambitions for his digital family office to the world. Backed by $90 million in venture capital, hes starting with low-minimum, private-bank-style investments for millennial millionaires.

Banking 230
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (May 3–4)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that CFP Board announced this week that it will raise its annual fee for new and renewing certificants by $120 to $575 in order to help fund its public awareness campaign to promote the CFP brand with the public and encourage consumers to seek out CFP professionals when looking for a financial advisor.

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When Does Housing Become THE Issue?

A Wealth of Common Sense

According to the National Association of Realtors, first-time homebuyers made of just 24% of recent transactions: That’s the lowest on record since the NAR has been collecting this data since 1981. Nearly three-quarters of recent buyers did not have a child under the age of 18 in their home, the highest share on record. It’s a terrible time to be a young person in search of a house.

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Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March; Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Equals Highest Since 2011 (ex-Pandemic)

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0.59%, down from 0.61% February. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.52% in March 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

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How To Overcome Change Fatigue In Finance With Neuroscience-Backed Strategies

Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP

The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.

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Bleakley Financial Breaks Brokerage Ties with LPL in Move Toward Fee-Based Model

Wealth Management

The Rise Growth-backed Bleakley will now use PKS for brokerage business, although LPL remains its primary custodian.

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Turn Website Visitors Into Clients: A Structured Content Marketing Framework For Better Lead Generation

Nerd's Eye View

An advisory firm's website often serves as the hub for attracting new clients, with various forms of content acting as 'spokes' that attract prospective clients to the firm. But for many advisors, the hardest part of creating a content marketing strategy is knowing where to start. Without a structured approach, content creation can cost the advisor valuable time without leading to meaningful leads.

Clients 146
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Sunday links: the pursuit of money

Abnormal Returns

Markets U.S. stocks haven't underperformed foreign stocks this badly since 1993. (ft.com) Why muni bonds look attractive. (barrons.com) Strategy Investors shouldn't think bullish or bearish, but risk and reward. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why 100% US stocks doesn't make sense. (humbledollar.com) Trends Companies are not yet seeing a drop off in expectations.

Media 144
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PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases Slightly to 4.3% YoY in March

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in March , down from 4.2% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 4.3% YoY in March , down slightly from 4.3% in February and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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What Clients Must Remember About the Stock Market and Tariffs

Wealth Management

If they are in the market, they should stay in the market. If they are in cash, then they should stay in cash equivalents.

Clients 181
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#FASuccess Ep 435: When The Next-Gen Clients’ “Wealth Builder” Offering Becomes The Main Driver Of Growth For A $1B+ Advisory Firm, With Gideon Drucker

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 435th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Gideon Drucker. Gideon is the CEO of Drucker Wealth, a hybrid advisory firm based in New York City, that oversees approximately $1 billion in assets under management for 800 client households. What's unique about Gideon, though, is how he initiated a "Wealth Builder" offering serving high-income next-generation clients (within a firm that historically had worked primarily with

Clients 130
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Research links: the same Sharpe ratio

Abnormal Returns

Quant stuff A curated list of the best finance and investment blogs, tools, and webpages broken down by category. (snippet.finance) Some recent academic research including 'Auctions, Announcements, and Abnormal Returns.' (alphainacademia.substack.com) Fund flows How fund flow seasonality is affecting bond ETFs. (on.ft.com) Fund flow volatility highlights bad investor behavior.

Retail 144
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HVS: Q1 2025 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2025 today. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

Numbers 240
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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Barred Advisor Sentenced to Three Years in Prison for $4M Fraud

Wealth Management

Andrew Corbman convinced several clients to loan him money, promising outsized returns and misleading them about his prior investment record (and not disclosing his disciplinary history).

Clients 157
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Transcript: Jeffrey Becker, Jennison Associates Chair/CEO

The Big Picture

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Jeffrey Becker, Jennison Associates Chair/CEO , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ 00:00:02 [Speaker Changed] Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

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Podcast links: censorship solves nothing

Abnormal Returns

Listening YouTube IS television. (vanityfair.com) Spotify ($SPOT) has paid more than $100 million to podcast publishers and creators YTD. (nytimes.com) The best podcasts of 2025, so far, including 'Odd Lots.' (vulture.com) Why Pete Buttigieg went on 'Flagrant.' (petebuttigieg.substack.com) Ken Rogoff Josh Brown talks with Ken Rogoff, author of "Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance and What's Ahead.

Startup 144
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Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its National Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.01% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in March. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.0% in March, down from up 3.4% YoY in February.

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Protect What Matters: Rethinking Finance Ops In A Digital World

Speaker: Cheryl J. Muldrew-McMurtry

Distributed finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs, and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats are more than just growing pains—they’re liabilities. The challenge isn’t just going remote. It’s building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.

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New RIA Launch Highlights the Challenges for Young Advisors

Wealth Management

Matt Jaskolkas experience at prior firms led him to launch his own RIA, Jaskolka Financial, pointing to the challenges that still persist for young advisors.

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MiB Live: Harvey Schwartz, CEO of Carlyle Group

The Big Picture

In this Bonus live edition of Masters in Business, I speak with Harvey Schwartz, CEO of the Carlyle Group. We talk about his New Jersey roots, how his mentors helped him grow on Wall Street and how geopolitics will play a critical role in investor fortunes. We spoke at the Future Proof Miami conference on March 18, 2025. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , YouTube , and Bloomberg.

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Adviser links: a sobering reminder

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks with Vanessa N. Martinez, CEO of Expressive Wealth, about legacy planning. (kitces.com) Cameron Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk with Jason Pereira about the true role of a financial planner. (rationalreminder.libsyn.com) Custodians Altruist has raised $152 million in a Series F round that values the registered investment advisor custodian at $1.9 billion.

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BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.2 million in March

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in March , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) were unchanged and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) edged down. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (r

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.