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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Yet the fundamental math of bond returns bodes well for 2023, our columnist says. ( Survival Lessons From Past Tech Downturns : The current tech downturn could be much worse than it appears now, say those who lived through the 2001 and 2008 crashes—but those who make it have the chance to fuel the next bubble. New York Times ). •

Math 294
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Bernstein on Bulletproof

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Barron's had a fun article that looked at some ideas from William Bernstein titled The Trick To A Bullet Proof Portfolio? Based on the title, it would seem to be in the neighborhood of creating an all-weather portfolio which we've looked at in several different forms over the course of my full 19 years of blogging.

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Throw It All Out And Start Over?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

A little more specifically the need for diversified portfolios persists with the implication that bonds are the way to get this done. This chart contributes to the logic supporting a 60/40 portfolio. As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% down to 0.50% let alone from the all time high of 15% down to 0.50%.

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A New Idea For An Old Strategy

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Anything related to the Permanent Portfolio (portfolio devised by Harry Browne weighting 25% each to stocks, long bonds, cash and gold) or any of the Permanent Portfolio-inspired modern investment products are always fun to look at. The S&P+PRPFX out performs by a noticeable bit but it also is more volatile.

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Return Stacking ETF Goes Live

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Here are some other numbers compared to the S&P 500 and VBAIX which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX replicates 100% into a 60/40 portfolio which leaves 33% left over to do something. In 2022, VBAIX was down 16.87% while Portfolio 2 was only down 10.77%.

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Transcript: Elizabeth Burton, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

The Big Picture

Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.

Assets 141
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Transcript: Tom Hancock, GMO

The Big Picture

If you’re at all interested in focused portfolios, the concept of quality as a sub-sector under value and just how you build a portfolio and a track record, that’s tough to beat. Dick Mayo was a traditional, I’d say portfolio, strong portfolio manager focused on US stocks. So I was at Harvard.

Valuation 130