A mixed track record
SEI
APRIL 17, 2024
Part one: Jim Solloway, Chief market strategist and senior portfolio manager, and Vivian Estadt, Client service director, present our economic outlook in this two-part series.
mixed-track-record 
Friday links: loss and setback
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 8, 2023
awealthofcommonsense.com) Retailing Why retail workers are quitting in record numbers. wsj.com) A record number of apartments are under construction. calculatedriskblog.com) Economy Q3 GDP is tracking at 3% growth. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Why Jimmy Buffett's music resonated with so many people.
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Wednesday links: opening the vault
Abnormal Returns
AUGUST 30, 2023
ritholtz.com) ETFs 2023 is on track for a record number of ETF closures. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media AI raises so many intellectual property issues. Strategy Why the low interest rate era has come to an end. ft.com) Generating alpha is more than just stock selection. Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.
Wednesday links: a weighing machine
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 7, 2024
abnormalreturns.com) Research links: a disappointing track record. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media The New York Times ($NYT) added 300,000 paid digital subscribers in Q4 2023. (abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Tuesday linkfest. Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.
Sunday links: poor listeners
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 3, 2023
downtownjoshbrown.com) College-educated women with children under 10 are in the workforce at record numbers. axios.com) Q4 GDP is tracking around 1%. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media People would rather read about Elon Musk than SBF. Sometimes to the best policy a policymaker can pursue is no policy at all."
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.7% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
APRIL 12, 2024
hotel performance showed mixed results from the previous week but positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 April. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 April U.S. Click on graph for larger image.
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Sunday links: what we’re blind to
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 21, 2024
thinkadvisor.com) Fixed income Investment grade issuance is at a record pace in January. bonddad.blogspot.com) 2023 Q4 GDP is tracking around 1.8% newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Contrary to popular belief immigrants' names were not changed at Ellis Island. ft.com) Leverage loan repricings are surging.
Monday links: the Fed’s conundrum
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 23, 2023
pionline.com) The ETF industry is two separate tracks: low cost index funds and increasingly specialized funds. investmentnews.com) Housing Home buyers are backing out of deals at a near-record rate. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Startup Cameo is a poster child for the venture capital cycle over the past few years.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased 0.8% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
MAY 10, 2024
hotel performance showed mixed results from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 4 May. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue). From STR: U.S.
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Wednesday links: a trading vehicle
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 11, 2023
which manages startups’ employee-equity plans and tracks their investors’ holdings. economist.com) Belgium and the Netherlands intercepted a record-breaking 160 metric tonnes of cocaine in 2022. (thebasispoint.com) Fidelity is buying Shoobx Inc., wsj.com) The BNPL bubble is set to burst. Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased 0.3% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
APRIL 29, 2024
hotel performance showed mixed results from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 20 April. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).
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Monday links: probabilistic games
Abnormal Returns
AUGUST 22, 2022
Markets The stock market was stopped dead in its tracks at the 200-day moving average. agweb.com) How record drought is affecting global trade. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media What 'quiet quitting' looks like in the real world. integratinginvestor.com) Good investors aren't trying to impress anyone. ft.com).
Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in April
Calculated Risk
MAY 9, 2023
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is a 12-month average, and is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Click on graph for larger image.
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.5% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 23, 2024
hotel performance increased from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons remained mixed, according to CoStar’s latest data through 17 February. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 17 February.S. Click on graph for larger image.
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in December
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 10, 2023
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is a 12-month average, and is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Click on graph for larger image.
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Saturday links: don’t kid yourself
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 20, 2024
marginalrevolution.com) A record number of drugs are facing shortages in the U.S. nytimes.com) Why the laugh track has nearly disappeared. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media How to deal with information FOMO. (wapo.st) Pharma Add human growth hormone to the list of drugs in short supply. Eight doctors weigh in.
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 18, 2024
hotel performance increased from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons remained mixed, according to CoStar’s latest data through 10 February. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 10 February U.S. Click on graph for larger image.
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.1% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 8, 2024
hotel performance decreased slightly from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons remained mixed, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 February. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 February U.S. Click on graph for larger image.
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.8% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 21, 2024
Hotel performance increased from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons remained mixed, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 January. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 January U.S. Click on graph for larger image.
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Saturday links: a false equivalence
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 10, 2023
qz.com) Fire Canada is on track for a record year of wildfires. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media People have been claiming falling morality for millennia. (technologyreview.com) The need for more expedited transmission lines (and interconnections) is acute. wsj.com) It's a good time to be an electrician in the U.S.
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in March
Calculated Risk
APRIL 9, 2023
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is a 12-month average, and is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Click on graph for larger image.
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in October
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.6% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 24, 2023
hotel performance showed mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 November. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking close to last year, and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in January
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 8, 2023
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is a 12-month average, and is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Click on graph for larger image.
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in September
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 11, 2022
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.0% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 9, 2023
hotel performance showed an expected decline from the previous week as well as mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 4 November. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 4 November U.S. Click on graph for larger image.
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in August
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 13, 2022
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Prices are up 3.8% YoY (and the YoY change has been trending down).
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.3% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 20, 2023
hotel performance increased from the previous week, and year-over-year comparisons remained mixed, according to CoStar’s latest data through 14 October. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 14 October U.S. Click on graph for larger image.
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in November
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 12, 2022
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is a 12-month average, and is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Click on graph for larger image.
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Digging In To Tracking Error
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
MARCH 30, 2024
Also the track records of the funds is very short, and it is tactical enough that it could have a different look every couple of weeks so I'd have no way of know how it positioned previously. Part of the analysis needs to be what sort of tracking error might there be and why. Tracking error is not necessarily a negative.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 0.2% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 10, 2023
hotel performance showed mixed results from the previous week but positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 2 September. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 September Following seasonal patterns, U.S.
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SRM Contractors IPO Review 2024 – GMP, Financials And More
Trade Brains
MARCH 20, 2024
Source: RHP of the Company Strengths of the Company Proven Track Record: The Company has a proven track record of efficient execution of roads, tunnels, and slope stabilization projects that are undertaken in the challenging territory of Jammu & Kashmir. SRM, with a basic EPS of Rs. as of FY23 and a price of Rs.
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in February
Calculated Risk
MARCH 12, 2023
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is a 12-month average, and is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Click on graph for larger image.
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BlackRock Gives Their Ideal Asset Mix For Pension Plans
Validea
OCTOBER 20, 2022
That’s left many investors looking for the right mix for their portfolios, and BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, touts their approach as the ideal asset mix, reports an article in Chief Investment Officer. If you’re new to Validea, consider taking a look at our product overview or introductory videos.
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in July
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 12, 2022
I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data. Prices are up 9.9% YoY (but the YoY change has been trending down).
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Saturday links: seemingly good things
Abnormal Returns
MAY 27, 2023
vox.com) Sports Mount Everest is on track for a record number of fatalities. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Lawrence Yeo, "So if art is an avenue to know yourself, what happens when its artifacts become products that are sold to others?" thestreamable.com) FAST is the future of streaming.
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Bookkeeping for Remodeling Business: 5 Strategies to Consider
Steve Feinberg
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Good bookkeeping starts with good record-keeping. Keep detailed financial records in the form of receipts and invoices, and avoid paying work-related fees with cash, as these transactions are harder to track. Track Hours Diligently. Keep Track of Inventory. Nail Down Your Job Costing.
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Saturday links: doing right by the environment
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 12, 2022
bloomberg.com) Methane How satellites can be used to track methane emissions. npr.org) Environment The past 8 years have been the warmest on record. newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Airfares aren't going down anytime soon. (nytimes.com) Low water levels on the Mississippi River are a global problem. wsj.com).
Markets stall as investors are reminded about the continued headwinds
Nationwide Financial
AUGUST 22, 2022
There is near record pessimism about the global economy and corporate profits. Economic data continue to provide a mixed picture on the Fed’s attempted “soft landing.” The index of leading indicators has a strong track record in predicting recessions when turning negative is currently flat from a year ago.
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Models Gone Wild!
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
NOVEMBER 7, 2023
The idea is to create a portfolio that has better risk adjusted returns using "sophisticated" funds with diversification ideas beyond simple stocks/bonds/cash and what they hope is prudent use of leverage embedding return stacking into the mix. I may not understand NFDIX properly but the track record is really bad.
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Does Return Stacking With Managed Futures Work?
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
APRIL 7, 2024
Return stacking adds it on top of the whatever stocks/bond mix being used so you don't have to take it from anywhere. They frame it as a tracking error issue but we've looked at that before, I don't really find the tracking error problem to be a problem at all. This "where do you take from" is not really a dilemma for me.
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Morningstar’s Director of Manager Research Shares His Focus
Validea
MARCH 27, 2023
Lock In Your Discount Today Demand for income strategies has been very high over the last few years, either from equities, bonds, or a mix of the two. Validea runs stock and ETF models based on investment strategies with proven long-term track records. 25% Off Annual Standard and Professional Subscription During Month of March.
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The Rule of 40% for Financial Advisors
Steve Sanduski
JUNE 3, 2022
The Mix Between Growth and Profit Margin. The key question now is what is the right mix between growth rate and profit margin for your business? You won’t attract top talent and you should consider selling or regrouping and getting back on a growth track. The average advisory firm is quite profitable but slow growing.
The Yield Curve May Be Flashing A False Recession Warning
Validea
JANUARY 13, 2023
But even he concedes that the current curve inversion is giving off mixed signals, with the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and the anticipation that inflation will begin easing making things murky. That would seem to indicate that a recession is “almost a certainty,” Lawrence Gillum of LPL Financial told Forbes.
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