Fri.Jun 30, 2023

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Nobody Knows Anything, 2023 First Half Edition

The Big Picture

A quick note as the first half of 2023 draws to a close, shocking the locals with its intensity. Why? Because almost nobody saw this rally coming. 1 As of this moment, the indices stand appreciably higher than where they were on January 1, 2023: The NASDAQ 100 is up >38%, the S&P 500 is up ~15.5%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index is up almost 7%.

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Podcast links: generational differences

Abnormal Returns

Audio YouTube will soon allow automatic dubbing. (engadget.com) How many streams it takes an artist to earn $1,000 on different platforms. (genuineimpact.substack.com) Companies Matt Reustle talks with Tom Walsh, a portfolio manager at Baillie Gifford, about ASML Holdings ($ASML). (joincolossus.com) Benjamin Gilbert and David Rosenthal talk about the history of Porsche AG with Doug DeMuro.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (July 1-2)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that NAPFA has announced that it will no longer exclude advisors who receive up to $2,500 in annual trailing commissions from previous product sales, if they agree to donate that money to a non-profit organization and are otherwise fully dedicated to fee-only principles with their clients going forward.

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Friday links: a trustworthy voice

Abnormal Returns

Markets Real yields are on the rise. (allstarcharts.com) T-bill yields are currently above that of AAA-rated bonds. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Strategy The stock market has had a good year, in only six months. (ritholtz.com) The feedback loop in the markets is no joke. (ritholtz.com) Companies Where Apple ($AAPL) stands as a $3 trillion company. (bigtechnology.com) How Amazon ($AMZN) is trying to cut down on customer returns.

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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The Quantum Realm

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Ian Cassel, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss microcap stocks, the state of the economy, how to analyze a company’s management team, how investing is like golf, Silicon Valley on drugs, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

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What Happened to the Recession?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Here’s a headline from a Bloomberg story about the economy: And the lede: The recession calls are getting louder on Wall Street, but for many of the households and businesses who make up the world economy the downturn is already here. This story probably could have been written yesterday but it was actually published a year ago, in July 2022. If it seems like we’ve been reading about a looming recession for m.

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Diving Into the Performance of Factors

Alpha Architect

Researchers have raised questions and led to research into how many factors are needed, the replicability of originally reported results, and the decay of factor performance over time. Diving Into the Performance of Factors was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Direct Indexing Doesn't Have To Dwell On The Past

Wealth Management

The strategy and technology that carries it out creates a different set of forward-looking questions where accurate future projections will become increasingly more important.

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Adani Wilmar Vs Patanjali Foods – Financials, Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Adani Wilmar Vs Patanjali Foods : The Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industry plays a pivotal role in our daily lives, offering essential products that are consumed on a daily basis. From the toothpaste we use in the morning to the packaged foods we rely on for our meals, the FMCG industry encompasses a wide range of products that are an integral part of our routines.

Food 105
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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The Problem with Saying ‘She’s in a Better Place’

Wealth Management

Grief comes with mixed emotions. Help a client work through both their financial issues and their emotional struggles, and you’ll have a client for life.

Clients 120
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Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in May; Up 0.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in May; Up 0.4% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 0.4% in May, from up 0.7% YoY in April. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021. In May, 15 states and D.C. were below their 2022 peaks, Seasonally Adjusted.

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The Rapid Pace Of Communications-Focused Generative AI For Advisors

Wealth Management

Our human technology columnist does his best to keep up with the latest generative AI for communications now available (or soon will be) to advisors.

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Chicago PMI Contracts for 10th Consecutive Month

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) inched up to 41.5 in June from 40.4 in May. This is the tenth straight month in contraction territory. This reading comes in below the forecast of 44.0.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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RIA Roundup: Emigrant Partners Stakes MONECO Advisors

Wealth Management

Emigrant has added the 21st growth-oriented platform to its expanding portfolio of independent wealth management businesses, while no less than six firms announced recruits or acquisitions this week.

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PCE Price Index: May Core Up to 4.6%

Advisor Perspectives

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for May was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest headline PCE price index was up 0.1% month-over-month (MoM) and dropped to 3.8% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE was also up 0.3% monthly and fell to 4.6% year-over-year, still well above the Fed's 2% target rate.

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Personal Income increased 0.4% in May; Spending increased 0.1%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May: Personal income increased $91.2 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $86.7 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $18.9 billion (0.1 percent).

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Closes Out Strong First Half Up 16.4%

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 closed out the first half of 2023 up 16.4%, reaching its highest level since April 2022. Additionally, the index saw its strongest month since October, finishing up 6.5% for the month of June. The index now sits 7.22% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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The WealthStack Podcast: Demystifying the Decumulation Phase of Retirement Planning with Sheryl O’Connor

Wealth Management

IncomeConductor's Sheryl O'Connor details why it's important for an advisor not just to get clients to retirement, but through it as well.

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How To Optimize Retirement Income

Advisor Perspectives

Financial advice often focuses on boosting personal savings rates and maximizing return on investment during a worker’s accumulation years. Equally important, however, is the decumulation process, when people spend those savings in the form of income.

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Looking at the Future of Custody

Wealth Management

Expect custody to become even more competitive, predicts Frank Tsung of AppCrown, as established and new players vie to help advisors grow.

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Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.3% in May

Advisor Perspectives

With the release of this morning's report on May's personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.40% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.27% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 7.44% nominal and 3.46% real.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Current Trends in Advisory Firm M&A

Wealth Management

Rising interest rates haven’t chilled the still hot advisory M&A market, says Eric Leeper, who sees more interest among younger owners.

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Understanding the Modern Monetary System – Updated

Discipline Funds

It’s been over 10 years since I published Understanding the Modern Monetary System , one of the most widely read papers in the SSRN research database. I published this paper because I was having trouble finding a succinct but thorough explanation of money and macroeconomics during the financial crisis. Further, many of the mainstream explanations of concepts like QE, banking, inflation and money appeared outdated at best and wrong at worst.

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Using Data to Drive Better Results

Wealth Management

Compensation is key to advisory firm profitability and growth, and getting it right involves having the right data, says Aaron Wells.

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How to Lower Your Tax Bill Next Year

Your Richest Life

If you were surprised at tax time this year, then you’re not alone. 2022 tax refunds were about 10 percent smaller than they were last year, and for those who owed money, they tended to owe more than they expected. The good news is, there’s still time to plan out how to lower your tax bill for next year – or at least feel more aware of what you will owe or receive.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Market Timing: The Sweet Dream That Never Comes True

Wealth Management

Market timing works just enough to give you hope, but not enough to improve performance over the long term.

Marketing 102
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Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Personal spending came in slight below expectations and with a downward revision in April. Overall, this decreased our personal consumption expenditure tracking estimate for 2Q. After rounding, it left our 2Q US GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 1.5%. [June 30th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: [W]e left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.2% (qoq ar).

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Former Wealth Magnets Are Losing Their Luster

Wealth Management

More millionaires are forecast to move to new countries in 2023 and 2024 than ever before.

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