The Big Picture
JULY 14, 2023
Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank notes the pattern of gradual downgrades before earnings season begins is back to normal. As the rest of the quarterly earnings roll out, we should expect earnings to improve as we roll deeper into earnings season and as “later estimate beats” come in. This quarterly earnings pattern is shown above in the chart from his colleague Binky Chadha.
Nerd's Eye View
JULY 14, 2023
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that while the new social media app Threads, designed to compete with Twitter, has surpassed 100 million users in its first week alone, its potential utility for advisors remains unclear and has raised compliance concerns for advisors whose social media archiving tools do not yet cover the new app.
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The Big Picture
JULY 14, 2023
My end-of-week morning offsite reads: • Google’s AI Blunders Rival Xerox’s PC Mistakes : The “T” technology behind ChatGPT was devised at Google but languished there. Sound familiar? ( Bloomberg ) • Wall Street’s Recession Warning Is Flashing. Some Wonder if It’s Wrong. The yield curve has been suggesting since last year that the economy was headed for a slump. ( New York Times ) see also Dude, Where’s My Recession?
The Reformed Broker
JULY 14, 2023
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Michael Cembalest, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the economy, AI stocks, the worst experiment in capital markets, the biggest risks to the market, the 2024 election, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem
Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.
NAIFA Advisor Today
JULY 14, 2023
Iris Nance, LUTCF , got into the insurance and financial services industry because of a postcard. In 1997, she was working as a Real Estate Finance Credit Analyst at a local bank after more than 10 years as a Bank Examiner with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). While exploring other career opportunities that would allow quality time with her twin daughters, she received a postcard in the mail from Farmers Insurance , and the rest is history.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Wealth Management
JULY 14, 2023
Only a small fraction of firms have increased their use of client testimonials and endorsements in the wake of the SEC’s updated marketing rules, according to a recent Investment Adviser Association survey.
Integrity Financial Planning
JULY 14, 2023
Summer is here, and it’s a great time to kick back with a good book and enjoy some reading. If you’re looking for some relaxing books to get into during your retirement, here are some great options! A Man Called Ove by Fredrik Backman A Man Called Ove is a heartwarming and humorous tale of an unlikely friendship between an endearing curmudgeon and his lively new neighbors.
Advisor Perspectives
JULY 14, 2023
The S&P 500 bounced back this week amidst cooling inflation data from the CPI and PPI reports. Despite Friday's small setback, the index finished the week up 2.4% and crossed the 4500 threshold for the first time in 15 months. The index is currently up 17.82% year t o date and is 6.07% below its record close from January 3, 2022.
Wealth Management
JULY 14, 2023
Focus Financial shareholders voted overwhelmingly to approve a take-private sale to private equity firm CD&R but were less enthusiastic about executive compensation.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Advisor Perspectives
JULY 14, 2023
The July preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 72.6, up 8.2 (12.7%) from the June final. This morning's reading was well above the forecast of 65.5. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 14.7% below its average reading (arithmetic mean) and 13.6% below its geometric mean.
Calculated Risk
JULY 14, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June A brief excerpt: This is the third look at local markets in June. I’m tracking a sample of about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Wealth Management
JULY 14, 2023
Beyond Hightower's expansion, no less than five other deals were announced this week along with a handful of RIA executive moves.
Calculated Risk
JULY 14, 2023
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. After the first few weeks, the pandemic low for weekly deaths had been the week of July 7, 2021, at 1,690 deaths (until recently). For COVID hospitalizations, the previous low was 9,821 (until recently). The last few months have seen a positive trend.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Alpha Architect
JULY 14, 2023
Academic research has demonstrated that the higher risk associated with less sustainable firms should be compensated by higher returns. It also has shown that more sustainable firms have less investment risk. Are Sustainable Investors Compensated Adequately? was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JULY 14, 2023
With inflation falling it’s looking more likely that we could see a soft landing in the U.S. economy.1 So now all of the economic pundits are fighting over who gets to take credit for it. My stance is no one gets to take credit because everyone was predicting a recession and there are no counterfactuals. You can’t say inflation was transitory because the Fed hiked rates so aggressively.
Wealth Management
JULY 14, 2023
Advisors must think like their clients and to think like them they need to know what they are experiencing.
Random Roger's Retirement Planning
JULY 14, 2023
Much has been made this year of the incredibly narrow leadership in the S&P 500's performance year to date, the NASDAQ too for that matter. The 'Magnificent Seven' of Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet and Tesla account for the vast majority of the gain in the S&P 500 so far. This group recently grew to 30% of the index so if you don't have 30% of your portfolio in those names, you are very likely lagging behind the index.
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Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.
Wealth Management
JULY 14, 2023
A Michigan jury deemed a handwritten document found in between Aretha’s couch cushions a valid will.
ModernAdvisor
JULY 14, 2023
Commentary The second quarter of 2023 saw confidence return to the US banking system with volatility receding, putting the spotlight back on inflation and central bank rate increases. The Bank of Canada (BoC) increased the benchmark interest rate in June by 0.25% after holding steady in March and April. Many had expected the rate rises to end at 4.75% but […] The post Q2 2023 Update appeared first on ModernAdvisor Blog.
Wealth Management
JULY 14, 2023
Advisors have no financial incentive to transition their clients to off-the-rack ETF offerings.
Advisor Perspectives
JULY 14, 2023
I've updated this series to include the June release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $48,723, down 7.9% from 50 years ago. Hourly earnings are below their all-time high after adjusting for inflation.
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All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!
Wealth Management
JULY 14, 2023
Emphasize data portability, not retention, within your tech strategy.
Tobias Financial
JULY 14, 2023
We are thrilled to announce that our CEO Marianela Collado has been appointed to the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (AICPA) Personal Financial Planning (PFP) Executive Committee. Marianela’s appointment is a testament of her knowledge, dedication, and commitment to advancing the field of financial planning. The AICPA PFP Executive Committee is dedicated to broadening the competency of CPA financial planners.
Calculated Risk
JULY 14, 2023
From BofA: Data since our last weekly publication moved up our 2Q GDP tracking estimate from 1.4% q/q saar to 1.5%. [July 14th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.3% (qoq ar). Our Q2 domestic final sales growth forecast stands at +2.6%. [July 10th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on July 10, up from 2.
Advisor Perspectives
JULY 14, 2023
Portfolio manager Shuntaro Takeuchi says Japanese equities, for so long a market of false dawns, may now be stirring up investment opportunities that finally present Japan as a long-term growth market.
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Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.
Abnormal Returns
JULY 14, 2023
The biz The Masters in Business podcast just hit 500 episodes. (ritholtz.com) 20 years in, has podcasting already peaked? (insidehook.com) AI Russ Roberts talks AI with Marc Andreessen. (econtalk.org) Ezra Klein talks with Demis Hassabis who is the CEO of Google DeepMind about what AI has already solved. (nytimes.com) Finance Michael Lewis talks distressed investing with Andy Mitchell of Lantern Asset Management.
Advisor Perspectives
JULY 14, 2023
While this is a market estimate and in no way guaranteed, let’s just pretend for a minute that there is a 100% chance of this coming true and the FOMC is going to raise the Fed Funds rate by an additional 50 basis points.
Advisor Perspectives
JULY 14, 2023
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 30th, the index was at 5.394, up 1.165 from the previous week.
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