Tue.Jan 10, 2023

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Tuesday links: the AI genie

Abnormal Returns

Markets What role do interest rates have in stock prices? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Why the golden age of biotech stocks may be over. (statnews.com) Crypto Coinbase ($COIN) is laying off 20% of its workforce. (cnbc.com) Why so many are focused on the big discount on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC). (blockworks.co) Could another firm actually take over management of GBTC?

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Transcript: John Mack

The Big Picture

. The transcript from this week’s, MiB: John Mack, Morgan Stanley CEO , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on iTunes , Spotify , Stitcher , Google , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~. XXXXX. ~~~. The post Transcript: John Mack appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Research links: disruptive values

Abnormal Returns

Research Long maturity TIPS have some weird characteristics. (morningstar.com) Firms with a high share of displaceable labor have negative exposure to technology shocks. (alphaarchitect.com) Why fixed schedule rebalancing may not be optimal. (wsj.com) Are short squeezes at all predictable? (blogs.cfainstitute.org) How pervasive is corporate fraud? (link.springer.com) How can investors identify management integrity?

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads: • Wall Street Sets Low Bar for Corporate Earnings Season : Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report first year-over-year decline in quarterly earnings since height of pandemic. ( Wall Street Journal ) see also Value Stocks to Lure Investors During Grim Earnings Season : Majority of investors expect ugly earnings reports to drive S&P 500 lower. ( Bloomberg ). • The Most Important New Inflation Indicator : Introducing the New Tenant Repeat Ren

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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A Good Old Fashioned Run on the Bank

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►Bank Earnings – “Bank Earnings to Put U.S. Economy Under Microscope.” ►The Power of Dividends – “A long history of increasing dividends is a clear sign of a stable businesses.” ►Ch.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: JPMorgan, Wynn & Broadcom from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in December

Calculated Risk

With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying. I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through December 2022, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).

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How Do Stocks & Bonds Perform Following Big Down Years?

A Wealth of Common Sense

It’s now well-documented that 2022 is one of the worst years in history for financial markets. Last year was one of the worst years ever for stocks and the worst year ever for bonds. The logical next step is to look at what has happened next following the prior worst years for stocks, bonds and diversified portfolios. Past performance tells us nothing about future performance but studying market history can provide.

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Growing RIAs Must Focus on 'Process,' Not Technology

Wealth Management

It is much less disruptive to take the time and train everyone on existing software tools than it is to convert to an entirely new system that requires you to transfer data along the way.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Animal Spirits: What’s the Negative Catalyst?

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts: Enter your information here to get 20% off YCharts (new clients only) On today’s show, we discuss: Jeff Bezos may return to helm Amazon, says forecaster of double-digit stock market losses last year Amazon workers joke about Jeff Bezos’s comeback amid Andy Jassy layoffs The 2023 Economy FAQ: Is recession inevitable?

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Question #5 for 2023: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2023?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 5) Inflation: Core PCE was up 4.7% YoY through November.

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Fundamental Analysis of Samvardhana Motherson International

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Samvardhana Motherson International: Last year Motherson Sumi Systems announced the demerger of its DWH business. Later, the demerged company was listed. In addition to this, Motherson Sumi was merged its with parent and its name was changed to SAMIL. With so much happening at SAMIL, how can we as investors resist not looking at the stock?

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11 Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Jan. 11, 2023)

Wealth Management

Dodge Momentum Index registered an increase in planning for commercial building in December 2022. Multifamily owners in Los Angeles would like to sell their properties, but the offers they are getting aren’t matching expectations, reports Bisnow.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Global Factor Performance: January 2023

Alpha Architect

Standardized Performance. Factor Performance. Factor Exposures. Factor Premiums. Factor Attribution. Factor Data Downloads. Global Factor Performance: January 2023 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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New CFP Board Chair Eyes New Sanction Guidelines by Midyear

Wealth Management

In an interview with WealthManagement.com, Dan Moisand stressed the need for updated guidelines and also said the Board hopes to provide more detail on the reasoning behind punishments.

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Stricter IRS Reporting Rules for Payment Apps

Advisor Perspectives

Users of online payment apps like Venmo, Zelle, PayPal, Google Pay, and Apple Pay will be in for a complex transformation if the IRS has its way.

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Top 5 MDRT videos from 2022

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Antoinette Tuscano, MDRT Content Specialist Videos about ideas for better client communications topped the list for viewers of MDRT’s YouTube channel for videos posted in 2022. The ideas shared in these videos came from MDRT members throughout the world, yet their advice and wisdom drive to the heart of the matter for clients everywhere.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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NEXT Podcast: Staffing the Wealth Management Firm of the Future with Dakota’s Carina Diamond

Wealth Management

Dakota Wealth Management's Carina Diamond discusses what RIA leaders are focusing on today and where the industry is headed.

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How to Present a Financial Plan: 4 Tips for Greater Engagement

eMoney Advisor

When financial professionals know how to effectively present a financial plan, they can better engage clients in the planning process and earn clients for life. Presenting a financial plan, however, isn’t as simple as running through the numbers. Financial planners need to make sure clients feel included, that the plan recommendations are understood, and they need to navigate clients’ potentially negative emotions while also motivating them to take the next steps.

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The Dangers of Monte Carlo Simulations

Advisor Perspectives

Probability-based retirement income strategies are highly sensitive to the capital market assumptions used in Monte Carlo analysis. Seemingly small changes in those assumptions can mean the difference between projecting a comfortable lifestyle and financial ruin.

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Fractional Shares, Fixed-Income Pricing to Get FINRA Scrutiny

Wealth Management

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority detailed the focus of its examinations in 2023.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Plan for More Wealth Destruction

Advisor Perspectives

Tight monetary policy and rising government debt will drive a regime of high interest rates, depressing stock prices and destroying the wealth of clients, most severely those at or near retirement.

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How Financial Advisors Can Reduce Their Carbon Footprint in 2023

Wealth Management

If you are offering clients an ESG or sustainable investment solution, it’s important to walk the talk.

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Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Up

Advisor Perspectives

As of January 9, the price of Regular and Premium were up 4 and 3 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, Hawaii has the highest average price for Regular at $4.93 and Georgia has the cheapest at $2.76. The WTIC end-of-day spot price closed at 74.63 and is down 3.0% from last week.

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IRS Audits of Millionaires Remain Low

Wealth Management

Low-income taxpayers are far more likely to be targeted.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Long-Term Trends in Employment by Age Group

Advisor Perspectives

The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the Civilian Labor Force (people age 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the Civilian Noninstitutional Population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution).

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Family Offices Bypass Private Equity Funds to Make Bets Directly

Wealth Management

A report from law firm Dentons found that 63% of family offices use direct investments with others interested in doing so.

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[cdata[ Changes to Your RMD ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ In 2022 Congress passed the SECURE ACT 2. There are a number of retirement savings provisions in the bill. The most notable is the change to the Required Minimum Distribution. RMD is the amount of money you must take from your tax deferred retirement accounts when you turn a certain age. For decades it was set at 70 ½ years old. Then the first SECURE ACT raised it to 72.