Fri.Oct 14, 2022

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Groping for a Bottom

The Big Picture

There’s nothing like confusing market action to send people into narrative creation overdrive. Yesterday’s 2% collapse on hotter-than-expected CPI data, followed by ~5% recovery to finish the day up more than 2% is a perfect example of random market action begetting endless explanations. What was the takeaway from CPI? Check out the BAML chart above: Core goods are coming down ( that’s good!

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Oct 15-16)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the Cost Of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries will be 8.7% for 2023, the largest COLA since 1981. While this will help seniors keep pace with rising prices, it also creates tax planning opportunities for advisors and raises the possibility that the Social Security Trust Fund could be depleted sooner than expected.

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Podcast links: knowing when to quit

Abnormal Returns

Podcasting Jim O'Shaughnessy talks with David Senra about the Founders Podcast. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Jason Buck talks with Bill Brewster from The Business Brew podcast. (mutinyfund.com) Business Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks product pricing with Madhavan Ramanujam author of "Monetizing Innovation: How Smart Companies Design the Product Around the Price.

Marketing 198
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1978 Porsche 911SC (Modified)

The Big Picture

One of the hottest trends in cars lately is retro-modding. It can go in either direction: Take a modern car and make it look like a retro classic — see the post-2000s Ford Mustang or the new Bronco as examples. But the other way to go is to take an older car and modernize it. Perhaps the most outrageous approach to this is done by Singer — as an example, see this gorgeous baby blue 1989 Porsche 964 Carrera 4 Coupe , that is bid up to $950k.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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TD Interview: Inflation and Future Credit Risk

Pragmatic Capitalism

Here’s my interview with Oliver Renick and TD from yesterday. I brought my sledge hammer with me to demonstrate how Fed policy is currently operating.

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Bad News is Good News

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Bob Pisani, Kyla Scanlon, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss stories from the stock exchange, investors of the future, the Fed’s toolbox, stocks for the long run, the most important developments in trading over the past 30 years, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your.

Marketing 141
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Friday links: brutal market sell-offs

Abnormal Returns

Markets Bond market volatility is at crisis levels. (axios.com) The biggest risk to the market right now is central bank policy error. (awealthofcommonsense.com) When the stock market is down 25% we are usually already in a recession. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Expectations for the 60/40 portfolio have been reset this year. (morningstar.com) Companies Details on Netflix ($NFLX) Basic with Ads is here.

Marketing 130
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Retail Sales Unchanged in September

Calculated Risk

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.2 percent from September 2021. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $684.0 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, but 8.2 percent above September 2021.

Retail 145
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Bad News is Good News

The Irrelevant Investor

One simple way to explain how markets function is rising prices attract buyers, and falling prices attract sellers. They might sound like opposite yet equivalent truths, but they’re not. Fear spreads quicker than greed, which is why bull markets can grind on for years, while bear markets often end quickly and in a panic. The chart below shows what I just described.

Marketing 136
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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The Worst Kind of Financial Advice

A Wealth of Common Sense

A new research paper from an economist at Yale did a deep dive into 50 of the most popular personal finance books of all-time. If you’re a personal finance nerd like me you should be familiar with the authors — Dave Ramsey, Suze Orman, Robert Kiyosaki, Ramit Sethi, David Bach and the like. The point of the paper was to show how typical personal finance advice differs from academic economic models.

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How To Manage Your Money: 19 Tips To Do It Right

Clever Girl Finance

Although money cannot buy you happiness, it can bring a sense of security if you know how to manage your money correctly. Without a handle on money management, you may always feel like your life is one step away from a financial cliff. In fact, 25% of Americans say they are constantly worried about money, and studies show that 37% of Americans would use a credit card , get a loan or ask someone they know, to cover a $1,000 financial crisis.

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Terminating a Note Early: When the Pain of Staying Outweighs the Cost of Leaving

Wealth Management

When an advisor signs a recruiting deal, the firm is making an investment in that individual, and the advisor is signifying the intent to make good on the firm’s investment. But situations change over time. Is there a way out?

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Powerful Social Media Tips and Tools For Financial Advisors

Advisor Websites

Is investing time and resources into your social media platforms as part of your marketing strategy the right move for you? There are many advisors that assume social media marketing isn’t capable of generating new business for their firm or isn’t worth the time, learning curve, or effort. There are others who believe they wouldn't be able to keep up with the trends and constantly changing algorithms, to begin with.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Backed By Lincoln Investment, Two Longtime RIA Execs Seek to Acquire Fee-Only Firms

Wealth Management

New RIA aggregator on the block, Transcend, formed by execs from Mercer and Budros, Ruhlin & Roe., partners with Lincoln Investment to invest in growing fee-only RIAs.

Fee Only 104
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The 15 Best Financial Advisor Websites

FMG

One of our favorite parts of working with our financial advisors and broker-dealers is the reveal of each new website. It’s so exciting to see the unique personality and perspective of each advisor expressed through a website. Our team takes great pride in working with our clients to create something beautiful that stays true to the advisor and the people they serve.

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COVID Oct 14, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

Calculated Risk

30-year mortgage rates at a 20-year high. NOTE: COVID stats are updated on Fridays. On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths): NOTE: Cases have declined by two-thirds from the recent peak, and deaths lag cases - so we might see average daily deaths in the 200s soon (good news, but still too high). Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

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Cost Overruns in Construction Projects And How to Manage Them

Steve Feinberg

Cost overruns in construction projects are exactly what they sound like: You meticulously considered the project, offered a detailed bid, spent time, resources, and capital to complete the work to code and client satisfaction—only to have spent 30% more than you initially planned to when the job is finished. If this sounds familiar to your company, you’re not alone.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 3.5% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Calculated Risk

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Falls, but Rate Increases Remain High U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week but produced mixed comparisons with 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Oct. 8. Oct. 2-8, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 68.2% (-3.5%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $153.79 (+16.9%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $104.83 (+12.8%) While weekday performance showed an expected decline due to Yom Kippur, school breaks

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Lottery Demand and the Asset Growth Anomaly

Alpha Architect

It is well documented in the literature that over the long term, low-investment firms have outperformed high-investment firms—with the negative relation between asset growth (AG) and future stock returns particularly featured by the overvaluation of high AG stocks. Lottery Demand and the Asset Growth Anomaly was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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Q3 GDP Tracking: Moving on Up

Calculated Risk

From BofA: On net, today's data on retail sales and import and export prices pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to 1.9% q/q saar , from 1.7% previously. [October 14th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: Following today’s data, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to +2.3% (qoq ar). [October 14th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.8 percent on Oc

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Cost Overruns in Construction Projects And How to Manage Them

Steve Feinberg

Cost overruns in construction projects are exactly what they sound like: You meticulously considered the project, offered a detailed bid, spent time, resources, and capital to complete the work to code and client satisfaction—only to have spent 30% more than you initially planned to when the job is finished. If this sounds familiar to your company, you’re not alone.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Structured Solutions, Explained

Wealth Management

Structured solutions are increasing in popularity due to rising inflation, but that doesn’t mean they’re for everyone.

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Why Clients Need a Financial Plan for College

Nationwide Financial

Key Takeaways. Whether your client has young children of their own, teenage grandkids heading to college, or wants to help finance college for someone else in the family, it’s wise to encourage your clients to create a financial plan for doing so. Having a knowledgeable financial professional can help empower clients and can even provide a greater return on investment.

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Want to Grow Your Client Base? Try TikTok

Wealth Management

Social media video and audio marketing is the way to reach next gen investors

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Cycle Watch | October 2022: Recession warning signs

Nationwide Financial

Soaring inflation and rising interest rates have contributed to growing recession fears. With inflation showing no signs of slowing, the Federal Reserve, as expected, raised its policy rate by 75 basis points in September. But another uncomfortably high inflation reading last month will likely mean another supersized rate hike when they meet again in early November.

Economy 59
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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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What Student Loan Forgiveness Means for Your Clients

Wealth Management

Here, we answer some common questions about the recent federal actions around student loan forgiveness.

Clients 104
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How do consultants get paid?

Steven J. Wilson

Typical payment terms for consultants are either an hourly rate, a flat fee per project, or a combination of the two. In some cases, consultants may also receive a commission for finding new clients or completing specific tasks. Independent consultants typically work with businesses on a short-term basis, providing advice and expertise as needed. However, Read more.

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Morgan Stanley CEO Hints at Job Cuts With Headcount Under Review

Wealth Management

“You’ve got to take into account the rate of growth we’ve had in the last few years,” CEO James Gorman said.