James Hendries

MARCH 13, 2023

Instead, we got a shockingly fast collapse of a financial institution with over $200 billion in assets, which turned the market’s focus toward the stability of the banking system and what systemic risks banks might be facing. Recent economic data has pointed to continued growth—giving rise to the “no landing” narrative.

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Brown Advisory

AUGUST 24, 2017

For one, real estate tends to move more in concert with the direction of the economy, while stock prices, for example, tend to move in advance of a change in economic fundamentals. All charts and economic and market forecasts presented herein are for illustrative purposes only. Barclays Indices are trademarks of Barclays Bank PLC.

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James Hendries

JULY 3, 2023

While activity remains muted at best, expectations are focused on 2024, when there is a prevailing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be finished with its rate hike campaign, and that economic conditions will be resilient enough to underpin a strong capital markets environment. With economic data continuing to suggest the U.S.

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Marketing Marketing Banking Valuation 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 13, 2023

Lessons learned: Economic forecasts The Fed’s bark was as bad as its bite! economy to avoid recession, and support above-average valuations. The hit to valuations in the form of about 4 P/E points (21 to 17) translates into a roughly 20% drop in the S&P 500 Index. Here are some of our lessons learned from 2022.

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James Hendries

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Given the country’s weak economy, due in large part to stringent zero-COVID-19 measures that have led to strict and prolonged lockdowns, coupled with a debt-laden property market, authorities in Beijing and throughout the Chinese provinces will need to focus on reviving the country’s economic underpinning. from an earlier forecast of 5%.

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James Hendries

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The challenges are many, with intense cost pressures and slowing economic growth at the top of the list. These headwinds include slower economic growth, cost pressures amid high inflation, ongoing supply chain issues, geopolitical instability in Europe and Asia, and significant currency drag from a very strong U.S. Numerous Headwinds.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 11, 2022

In markets that are focused on what can go wrong when monetary policy moves into restrictive territory, as it is now with global central banks raising interest rates to curtail stubbornly high inflation, the health of the banking system is always a top concern. Bank of England Forced to Step in to Save Pension Funds.

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James Hendries

JANUARY 26, 2023

Easing inflation pressures and a stable job market with only modest additional tightening from the Fed are keys to limiting the severity of an economic downturn. The dotted grey line highlights the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the Fed, which shows policymakers’ forecast for a fed funds rate of 5.1%

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James Hendries

JUNE 26, 2023

With the broad market overbought in the short-term from a technical analysis perspective and valuations elevated, stocks may be due for a pause. Our base case calls for a mild and short-lived recession to begin by year-end, but the latest economic data have slightly raised the odds of a soft landing. All index data from FactSet.

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James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change. Along with the statement, the Committee updated the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which is arguably more important than the brief monetary policy statement.

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James Hendries

OCTOBER 25, 2022

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles, and they consider a wide range of economic indicators other than just the quarterly GDP metric. Depth refers to declining economic activity that is more than a relatively small change. The following paragraph explains one of them.

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Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. The banking sector is better capitalized, we do not see a “Lehman moment” lurking, and homeowners are generally not under water with loan-to-value metrics. Regional differences are profound. Conclusion.

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James Hendries

JANUARY 20, 2023

These headwinds—clearly not new news—include slower global economic growth, cost pressures from still-elevated inflation, ongoing supply chain issues, currency drag from a stronger U.S. Even the economic pressures have eased some, with fourth quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) likely to exceed the 1.2%

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James Hendries

AUGUST 30, 2022

Still, corporate America delivered the type of upside investors have grown accustomed to in much easier economic environments. We’re counting on inflation pressures easing next year while economic growth potentially picks up from the anemic level in the first half of 2022 to provide additional support. The numbers.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 3, 2022

However, the central bank could begin cutting again in the back half of 2023 if the economy shows significant weakness. The official arbiter of business cycle dating is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The economic growth outlook has weakened. if the labor market remains stable. Of course, the U.S.

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James Hendries

MARCH 6, 2023

Economic activity does not stop like an airplane eventually does, but rather the economy will settle into a steady state where growth is consistent with factors such as population and productivity. Perhaps that was not the first time market watchers used the term, but the conversations at the Economic Club of New York were prescient.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

economic growth. More specifically, it reflects how the Fed intends to stimulate or slow economic growth by cutting or raising its policy rate. This is referred to as an inverted yield curve, which has been a pretty reliable predictor of economic recessions. The shape of the yield curve is not normal. The shape of U.S

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James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

Market strategists and pundits make the relationship between recessions and the stock market seem binary, but each economic contraction is different and has different effects on earnings. First, keep in mind that stocks tend to look forward by four to six months and can provide warnings of changing economic conditions.

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James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

Likewise, during periods of economic slowdown, temporary workers are typically the first to get the notorious pink slip. One risk is the high number of workers in temporary help services since these jobs often are the first to go during times of economic uncertainty. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

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Sara Grillo

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

He is a flat fee advisor; not a licensed insurance agent. Fee only advisors can now purchase annuities for their clients without having to be licensed agents. Mettler says he does not have a securities license for this reason. Scott Salaske , CEO of Firstmetric. For those of you who are new to my blog, my name is Sara.

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Insurance Financial Advisor Retirement License 59

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

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James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

As we know from historical precedents, when the Fed aggressively raises rates, economic growth slows or outright contracts, which is the Fed’s goal. High quality bonds tend to perform relatively well during economic slowdowns and/or contractions. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

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James Hendries

JANUARY 31, 2023

Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio. All index data from Bloomberg.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Growth stocks typically trade at higher valuations on the premise that an investor is buying a company now that will grow to be a much larger company, producing higher levels of cash and profit in the future. Increasing the discount rate, which lowers the present value of future cash flows, and company valuations.

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James Hendries

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Economic and corporate data support the initial strong reads on holiday retail sales despite the macro headwinds, reinforcing the idea that today’s consumer is in a better position than usual at this point in the business cycle. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

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James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

Businesses often begin cutting these jobs during periods of economic uncertainty and an increasingly large number of individuals in these roles is inherently unstable for the labor market. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. Technical analysis perspective.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio. All index data from Bloomberg.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-toearnings valuation ratio. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio. All index data from FactSet.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

And we’d sort of turn that into a valuation business. MILLER: Well actually I thought, leading up to the great financial crisis, I thought to myself, we’re going to be out of business within a couple of years because nobody wanted an independent valuation. What are the, you know, I’d literally have it in my handheld.

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James Hendries

JULY 6, 2022

While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards and prior valuation targets no longer appear achievable, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent. Remember stock valuations are inversely correlated to inflation and interest rates. So a P/E over 20 is probably too rich.

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James Hendries

JULY 21, 2022

How businesses, households, and central banks steer through the rough air will set the tone for markets over the second half of 2022. Lower inflation tends to bring higher valuations (Fig.1). Current margins may support above-average valuations, but cost pressures remain intense as inflation has been stubbornly slow to come down.

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James Hendries

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Even if there’s a strong case to be made, we think debt service prioritization would be allowed to continue while the case works its way through the courts, since the potential economic damage would be too great otherwise. Payments that were deferred would be repaid in arrears so the economic impact would likely be minimal.

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Brown Advisory

FEBRUARY 7, 2017

In the first instance, the markets apparently concluded that Britain’s exit from the European Union would not have a material negative impact on economic growth after all. Bloomberg Barclays Indices are trademarks of Bloomberg or its licensors, including Barclays Bank PLC. An index constituent must also be considered a U.S.

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Brown Advisory

FEBRUARY 7, 2017

In the first instance, the markets apparently concluded that Britain’s exit from the European Union would not have a material negative impact on economic growth after all. Bloomberg Barclays Indices are trademarks of Bloomberg or its licensors, including Barclays Bank PLC. Research: Better Micro than Macro.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

We believe either outcome would be market-friendly, although the bigger market driver will likely be central banks’ efforts to tame inflation. Policy itself can be difficult to forecast, and economic factors often overwhelm the impact on markets. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

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