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You can’t handle the truth – Do the Math on the 2023 Bull Market

David Nelson

5% yields are an attractive alternative to risk assets, especially since it’s been close to 16 years since overnight rates were at current levels. However, the banking crisis that followed in March was a heavy burden for stocks as fears of systemic collapse continued to feed the bear market narrative. Who could blame them?

Math 52
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How Do Higher Interest Rates Push Inflation Down?

Discipline Funds

This went against the prevailing theory that lower interest rates and more reserves in the banking system could cause a surge in bank lending as lower rates make loans more affordable and more reserves give banks more ability to “multiply” loans. QE is an asset swap as I’ve explained many times in the past.

Banking 111
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From Rocket Ship to Roller Coaster

Investing Caffeine

However, the fact remains the economy remains strong, corporate profits are at record levels, unemployment is low, and interest rates remain at attractive levels despite nagging inflation ( see chart below ) and the removal of accommodative monetary policies by the Federal Reserve. Math Matters. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit.

Math 52
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Emotional swings continue as the FOMC meeting looms

Nationwide Financial

Other risk assets are rallying, including Bitcoin gaining 15% since last Tuesday. The curve, however, continues to project cuts to the rate beginning next May, which seems optimistic given the tone of Fed officials and the math around getting inflation back close to their 2% target. This is causing the euro to rally against the dollar.

Retail 52
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Transcript: Tom Hancock, GMO

The Big Picture

I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. My mental image was that he worked in the bank of, back of a bank approving mortgage applications. Finance was the natural fit for GMO. Are you prudent?

Valuation 130
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Transcript: Anat Admati

The Big Picture

It turns out their business model is a little similar to the way the banking industry has managed to capture a lot of regulators and continue to operate fairly freely without this sort of regulation and capital requirements and equity requirements that would make banking safer. I was good in math and I love the math.

Banking 195
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Transcript: Steven Klinsky

The Big Picture

It was between corporate law and investment banking. KKR was the biggest with $400 million of assets and eight people. And Forstmann Little was the second biggest with $200 million of assets, and four professionals and they hired me in as the fifth professional. RITHOLTZ: Oh, really? KLINSKY: Yeah. They’re trading.

Investing 257