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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

Welcome to 2023! Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! Might 2023 be a fourth major March bottom? Have a great 2023 – embrace risk, but avoid unforced errors.

Economy 321
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Forecasting Recessions

The Big Picture

The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 276
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U.S. Economic Outlook, October 2023

Advisor Perspectives

economy’s remarkable resilience is complicating the lives of investors and the Federal Reserve. Despite war-disrupted commodity markets and one of the most aggressive monetary tightening phases in modern history, economic activity has remained strong.

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Question #2 for 2023: How much will job growth slow in 2023? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 How much will job growth slow in 2023? Or will the economy lose jobs? range in Q4 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2023?

Economy 88
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Podcast: 2023 Economic Outlook

Nationwide Financial

Key Takeaways: Hear our economic outlook for 2023, provided by Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan, and Senior Economist Ben Ayers. (21 As we close out the year, it’s time to look forward and provide our economic outlook for 2023. And how close are we to a recession?

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Tuesday links: the bond market drawdown

Abnormal Returns

nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? axios.com) Why did macroeconomists get 2023 so wrong? bloomberg.com) Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'How much will wages increase in 2024?' (wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem.

Marketing 249
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 111