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Slowing U.S. Economy, State by State

The Big Picture

Note: I have been occasionally eyeballing this map since 2008 , and it does a good job of showing the overall trend of the economy (on an obvious lag). The economy is mixed to good, with 2/3rd of states expanding and 1/3rd of states slowing; Dropping from +96 to -22 is a substantial decrease, regardless of the high GDP print last Q.

Economy 352
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Coincident State Indexes (October 2022)

The Big Picture

The Coincident State Indexes for October 2022 snuck out last week right before Thanksgiving. The economy is slowing, and some states are doing great, some okay, some less so. Previously : Signs of Softening (July 29, 2022). Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022). Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022).

Economy 271
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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs added in 2022, and 7.3 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 113
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What’s Wrong with China’s Economy?

Trade Brains

And now the world’s 2nd largest economy is experiencing a fall after the covid lockdown recovery. 5️⃣ Foreign direct investment is down 6️⃣ Overall debt-to-GDP ratio is about 300% and rising 7️⃣ Decreasing population: In 2022, China’s population fell for the first time since 1961, which was not expected until 2029 or later.

Economy 72
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What Recession? State Coincident Indicators

The Big Picture

As the charts above show, the economy on a state-by-state basis has markedly improved from Q4 2023’s softening. Since it’s been a few months, I thought we could take a quick look at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators out for both January and February 2024.1 ” The 12-month change is +2.9%

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March 2024 State Coincident Indexes Ease

The Big Picture

A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. The economy remains robust, inflation is more of a housing issue with some services concerns thrown in. Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate.

Economy 207
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U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2022

Calculated Risk

Earliler the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2022 by age, and I've updated the table from the previous post. The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030. population by age in July 2022 according to the Census Bureau.

Economy 145