Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 3, 2024

At the end of 2019, for example, many pundits were forecasting a recession simply because the boom had gone on for so long. Recessions are notoriously difficult to predict.

Economy 98

Economy 98

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 111

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 111

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (89.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is about at the same level as in 2019 (100.3% compared to the same week in 2019.

Economy 102

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 102

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (93.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (94.5% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (96.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 106

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 106

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (93.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 97

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 97

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 101

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 101

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (92.8% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 94

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 94

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (91.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 91

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 91

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Bell Investment Advisors

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

Comparing present day data with data from 2000 through 2019, we clearly see strength in the present. The broader economy surprises, too. With a seemingly unstoppable labor market and an economy that’s defied recession expectations, why have most financial markets declined since July? First, let’s discuss the U.S. labor market.

Economy 52

Economy Economics Investment Advisor Numbers 52

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (94.7% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 87

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 87

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (87.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (97.4% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 82

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 82

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure. The S&P acts as a snapshot that illuminates which companies and industries are the largest in the economy at any given time.

Economy 300

Economy Management Investing Investments 300

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage? No less an authority on the economy than the Federal Reserve stated, “May was the strongest month for hotel revenue in Philadelphia since the onset of the pandemic, in large part due to an influx of guests for the Taylor Swift concerts in the city.” economy afloat this summer!

Economy 98

Economy Clients Economics Investing 98

The Big Picture

JUNE 26, 2023

Rising rates, falling savings, increased deficits, dubious GDP : Ever since the yield curve inverted and warnings of “imminent recession” filled the air, the Philly Fed’s map of State Coincident Indexes has provided a good real-time snapshot of the state of the economy. Previously : Are We in a Recession? (No)

Economy 312

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 312

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (89.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 68

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 68

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. Since 2019, Households invested more, home values jumped, and savings levels have risen. The first is a group of charts covering two decades through 2019, titled “ Prevalence of Emotional Payload in Headlines.”

Media 350

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 350

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. Oh my god, the economy’s falling apart, people are losing their jobs, we’ve got to start to stimulate the economy, we have to stop a recession.”

Numbers 277

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 277

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 26, 2023

In late-2019, The Economist put out a 150 page report called The World in 2020 that offered some predictions for the coming year in geopolitics and the economy. The issue was full of thoughts and ideas from CEOs, economists, scientists, politicians and business leaders about what was coming in the year ahead. presidential election,

Economy 120

Economy Marketing Marketing 120

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 26, 2023

slate.com) Economy The Misery Index is falling rapidly. nytimes.com) A 2019 Q&A with Harry Markowitz. (traderfeed.blogspot.com) Companies Amazon ($AMZN) is building out the Amazon Hub Delivery. axios.com) Dustin Moskovitz now owns a majority of shares in Asana ($ASAN). Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter.

Financial Advising 190

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 190

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 8, 2024

A “Goldilocks” December jobs report highlights sustained momentum for the economy as it continues its path to normalization. Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. History says to expect it.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

The Big Picture

AUGUST 7, 2023

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The Pandemic Small-Business Boom Is Fueling the US Economy : Startup registrations remain 42% ahead of 2019 levels, with growing numbers of companies founded by women and minorities. James Investment Company ) • India’s Economy Is Humming, and There’s More to Come. ” ( St.

Economy 243

Economy Startup Food Numbers 243

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

Most observers of the economy assumed the answer to his question was “some amount,” but I believe di Giovanni and his co-authors are the first to quantify it: “Our analysis of the relative importance of supply-side versus demand-side factors finds 60 percent of U.S. Jerome Powell and the FOMC should ask themselves three questions: 1.

Medicine 363

Medicine Economics Medical Economy 363

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Labor and Capital have swapped roles in 2020-era inflation: Over the 4 decades preceding the pandemic (1979 to 2019), profits contributed 11% to price growth while labor costs added more than half – about 60%. a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8%

Economics 332

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 332

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4%

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

The Big Picture

MARCH 9, 2023

In this space, Hedge funds lag finance, which in turn lags the broader economy. Women are under-represented in the finance industry in general, but it has been improving (albeit slowly).

Wealth Management 152

Wealth Management Management Engineering Investing 152

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 29, 2024

Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates. Economy: This Time Was Different, and That’s a Big Deal The U.S. and 2017-2019 pace of 2.8%. economy grew 5.8%

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2022

fortune.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are trending higher, albeit slowly. youngmoney.co) Why we can never go back to 2019. (frontofficesports.com) How NBA shoe deals actually work. huddleup.substack.com) China How goes China's 'Belt and Road Initiative'? npr.org) What happens if Covid rips through China's population?

Financial Advising 195

Financial Advising Media Assets Taxes 195

Carson Wealth

MARCH 4, 2024

.” — Winston Churchill The S&P 500 was up in both January and February for the first time since 2019. The economy continues to appear in good shape. s consumer-driven economy. It’s only slightly elevated relative to the 2017-2019 average of 2.9%. across 2018-2019. For perspective, it was running at 2.6%

Marketing 90

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 90

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. 2023 was the 3rd lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 42% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 128

Economy 128

Carson Wealth

APRIL 29, 2024

The Headline GDP Number Masks a Strong Economy The economy grew 1.6% Excluding these categories provides a much clearer picture of actual spending and production in the economy, i.e., final demand after adjusting for inflation. in the first quarter, well above the 2010-2019 average pace of 2.4%. Think of it like core GDP.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 325

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 325