Calculated Risk

MARCH 2, 2023

19-25, 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 64.2% (-1.5%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.51 (+22.2%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$100.43 (+20.3%) *Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. Click on graph for larger image.

356

356

Calculated Risk

APRIL 21, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%). Inventory will pass 2020 levels in the next two weeks, and it now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 32.6%

281

281

Calculated Risk

MAY 19, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 15.7%). This is the highest level since 2019. It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 32.7% This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

282

282

Calculated Risk

JUNE 19, 2025

compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the seventh week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since December 2019. • On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% year to date.

Sales 165

Sales Numbers 165

Calculated Risk

APRIL 25, 2023

YoY and nearly matching Mar 2019. Overall ADR exceeded $213, breaking the record from just a few months ago (Oct 2022, $208) and surpassing Mar 2022 and Mar 2019 by +30.7% over Mar 2019 Click on graph for larger image. compared to the same month in 2019. compared to March 2019, and up 56.0% in Mar 2023, up +9.6%

324

324

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2025

compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the eighth week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since December 2019. • What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings.

Sales 147

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 6, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019 A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

Marketing 290

Marketing Marketing Sales 290

Calculated Risk

JUNE 5, 2025

compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. There were more than 1 million homes for sale again last week, marking the fourth week in a row over the threshold and the highest inventory level since December 2019. • What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings.

Sales 162

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 20, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.3%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. Inventory was up 24.8%

264

264

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). Im tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US.

Marketing 261

Marketing Marketing Sales Numbers 261

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 19, 2024

million SAAR in December; Months-of-Supply above December 2019 Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023. Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78 Sales declined 6.2%

Sales 289

Sales 289

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to October 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the second look at local markets in October.

Sales 248

Sales Marketing Marketing 248

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.1%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 28.7%

191

191

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 16, 2025

compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8%

Sales 261

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 261

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2025

months in January 2019. Note that months-of-supply is higher than 6 of the last 8 years, and at the same level as in 2017. Months-of-supply was at 3.5 months in January 2025, up from 3.0 months in January 2024, and down from 3.8 Note that December and January usually have the lowest months-of-supply.

Marketing 232

Marketing Marketing Sales 232

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2025

compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9%

Sales 276

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 276

Calculated Risk

APRIL 14, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.4%). Inventory will pass 2020 levels soon, and it now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 33.4% This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

165

165

Calculated Risk

APRIL 28, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 16.7%). It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. Inventory was up 31.0% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 32.6%), and down 16.1%

165

165

Calculated Risk

MARCH 24, 2025

Altos Research put out an updated inventory projection last week showing that inventory might end the year at 2019 levels! If inventory is close to 2019 levels by the end of 2025, and sales remain sluggish, months-of-supply will move up sharply. And net legal immigration will slow sharply.

Sales 179

Sales Economy 179

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 19.0%). Inventory will pass 2020 levels soon, and it now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 34.7% This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

147

147

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 363

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 363

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.0%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. Inventory was up 27.7%

147

147

Calculated Risk

MAY 26, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 15.6%). This is the highest level since 2019. It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 32.4% This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

147

147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 16, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 13.0%). This is the highest level since 2019. It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 33.1% This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

257

257

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red). compared to April 2019. compared to the same period in 2019. compared to April 2019. compared to 2019. Visitor traffic was down 5.1%

147

147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 21.9%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 28.3%

147

147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is at the same level as the same week in 2019 (100.5% Blue is for 2020.

Transportation 352

Transportation Numbers Sales 352

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

However, compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 35.2% Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 35.2%). Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Altos reports inventory is down 0.5% week-over-week and down 1.5% from the peak on October 28th.

363

363

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 19, 2024

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 27.5%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

340

340

Calculated Risk

MARCH 17, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 21.4%). The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 29.3% The gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!

147

147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2025

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 21.8%). The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2025. Inventory was up 28.3% The gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!

147

147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

However, compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 34.8% Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 34.1%). Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory decreased last week. Altos reports inventory is down 2.6% from 468 thousand.

361

361

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

However, compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 34.4% Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 34.4%). Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Altos reports inventory is down 0.8% week-over-week and down 2.3% from the peak on October 28th.

360

360

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 39.5%). Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019. Altos reports inventory is up 33.7%

363

363

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to February 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). Im tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US.

Marketing 165

Marketing Marketing Sales 165

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 44.6%). Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4). The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019. More than double! Altos reports inventory is up 32.3%

363

363

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. From the NY Fed: Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $147 billion in the third quarter of 2024, a 0.8% rise from 2024Q2. Balances now stand at $17.94 trillion and have increased by $3.8 The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

Economics 309

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 309