Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

First up was a webinar about model portfolios at ETF.com. Outsourcing the work related to actually being an advisor would not feel right to me and I enjoy what I get to do including portfolio construction. I think that when investors hear about model portfolios they sort of think in terms of set and forget.

Portfolio 73

Portfolio Asset Allocation Math Compliance 73

Darrow Wealth Management

OCTOBER 1, 2022

Is retiring with a mortgage a good idea? Retiring with a mortgage doesn’t typically pose a financial risk, and at times it’s the best financial decision. But paying off a mortgage before retirement has upsides also. Here’s when it may – and may not – make sense to pay off a mortgage before retiring.

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Retirement Taxes Math Wealth Management 81

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 9, 2022

If you do the math, that yields a better long term result in nominal terms and also in risk adjusted terms. Getting that exact result is not going to be easy for too many people but the idea of structuring a portfolio to be less volatile while avoiding interest rate risk is something that someone who is so inclined can do.

Portfolio 72

Portfolio Math Clients Management 72

Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

OCTOBER 31, 2022

It has further been estimated that as we approach retirement, this ratio increases to a factor of five times more pain for a loss as opposed to the joy we experience for a gain. There’s no shame in admitting that factor – for a lot of us, math can be very tough.

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Math Investing Investments Retirement 113

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 7, 2023

The course covers an introduction to personal finance, credit cards, life insurance, health insurance, investment instruments, loans, income tax and planning, budgeting and building a strong portfolio. Also, you will learn how to plan your taxes, credit score importance and how to budget your income to create a portfolio.

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Budgeting Certification Education Asset Allocation 59

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 23, 2023

For most, Social Security provides a solid foundation for retirement income. As you grow older and retirement looms on the horizon, the decisions you make start to have a more crucial impact on the amount of money you receive, so it’s important that you know what to expect.

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Retirement Math Retirement Planning Financial Planning 89

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. If you’re depending on income to fund your retirement, 5% rates are a blessing.

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Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

It's been a while since this sort of thing was relevant for my day job so something could have changed, weeklies didn't exist for example, but if my math is correct then it was way over exposed which would account for last week's decline in the fund price. Please leave a comment if I did the work incorrectly.

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Math Education Management Taxes 95

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 12, 2023

The Wall Street Journal had an article about the standard 60/40 portfolio , that is 60% allocated to stocks and 40% allocated to fixed income. My experience is that the typical retired person/couple expects growth in exchange for some volatility from the equity portion of their portfolio, they don't want it from their fixed income sleeve.

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Portfolio Math Clients Retirement 68

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 22, 2024

This blog has pretty much evolved into 100 ways to build a portfolio without bonds. The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general. If the Fed itself can’t forecast rates, why would your financial advisers think they can?"

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Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Math 78

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 22, 2023

And then just a little math, the "guarantee" based on the 50/50 allocation would be 2.5% Portfolio 3 with 65% HEQT and 35% SPHB was down quite a bit less than the S&P 500 last year and the standard deviation is noticeably lower too. Keep it to something broad like a total market fund or a market cap weighted large cap index.

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Math Portfolio Investing Investments 61

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

I've been saying meaningful yield without too much volatility is what investors hope the bond portion of their portfolio will give. The simple 40 year trade for bonds of "number go up" is finished and as a matter of math, can't be repeated. Taking volatility out of a fixed income portfolio is fairly simple.

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Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

There was a lot of content from various places over the weekend about whether it is time to go back into bonds, what retired investors should do for yield and even whether retirees are better off going 100% into equities. This chart contributes to the logic supporting a 60/40 portfolio. Barron's also noted that 60/40 was up 9.6%

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Portfolio Math Assets Retirement 60

Yardley Wealth Management

JULY 20, 2022

Their retirement plan is strong, their kids are independent, and they are debt-free. They’re approaching retirement age, but it’s hard for them to imagine what exactly retirement will look like. We’d look at the asset allocations of their portfolios and whether they’re tax-deferred, tax-exempt, or taxable.

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Retirement Planning Budgeting Retirement Wealth Management 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

I don't see the diversification benefit which as an ongoing theme forces us to think differently about how to build a 60/40 portfolio. It is important to understand the math though. No portfolio concept can always be best. Any valid idea you come up with for your portfolio will lag at times. That's a year to date chart.

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Portfolio Math Management Investing 64

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 8, 2023

Barron's had a fun article that looked at some ideas from William Bernstein titled The Trick To A Bullet Proof Portfolio? Based on the title, it would seem to be in the neighborhood of creating an all-weather portfolio which we've looked at in several different forms over the course of my full 19 years of blogging.

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Asset Allocation Math Portfolio Assets 62

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 9, 2023

Generally speaking, pensions are less viable than they used to be, the math doesn't work as well. The only pension I am remotely close to is the Arizona Public Safety Personnel Retirement System. The concept of pensions is that they provide a security net to retired workers. Is he right? Is he wrong?

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Retirement Math Management Taxes 47

Clever Girl Finance

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Retirement accounts. Figuring out how to calculate liquid net worth is as simple as doing a quick math equation: Liquid assets - liabilities = liquid net worth. Don't worry—there is an answer to the question, "What is my liquid net worth" that doesn't involve solving math equations. What doesn't count as liquid assets?

Assets 59

Assets Accounting Math Portfolio 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

That is correct, technically but whatever you're looking for from REITs, or private equity or any of the others, you're not going to see it impact the portfolio as part of an index fund. Mistakes during those types of events are what managing portfolios is all about.

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Math Portfolio Marketing Marketing 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 17, 2023

The title tells you the author's conclusion, Why Your Portfolio Should Hold Way More Than 30 Stocks. In my opinion the diversification benefit hits diminishing returns pretty close to 40 individual holdings based on math if nothing else. If a portfolio starts with 40 holdings each with an equal 2.5% Not too many I'd say.

Numbers 63

Numbers Portfolio Math Portfolio Management 63

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 1, 2023

A quick excerpt from a post a couple of weeks ago about retirement misconceptions. I would much rather withdraw 10% or more per year from my retirement accounts and do it without taking any principal. Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills.

Math 59

Math Retirement Numbers Portfolio 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

Anything related to the Permanent Portfolio (portfolio devised by Harry Browne weighting 25% each to stocks, long bonds, cash and gold) or any of the Permanent Portfolio-inspired modern investment products are always fun to look at. I wanted to circle back to the ProShares S&P 500 High Income ETF (ISPY).

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Portfolio Math Assets Taxes 40

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 20, 2023

The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX (Portfolio 2 with 33% in the T-bill ETF) equals 100% in Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for 60/40 and Portfolio 3. Portfolio 1 is 100% in NTSX which in 2022 was down 25.84% versus down 16.85% for Portfolio 2 and 16.87% for Portfolio 3.

Assets 59

Assets Portfolio Math Management 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 27, 2022

In my ongoing quest to redefine portfolio construction, I've mentioned labeling asset classes based on their attributes versus just their proper names like growth which could include more than just equities or inflation protected which could include more than just TIPS and so on. We talk frequently about portfolios being relatively simple.

Portfolio 76

Portfolio Clients Assets Math 76

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.

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Assets Management Portfolio Investing 141

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

If you’re at all interested in focused portfolios, the concept of quality as a sub-sector under value and just how you build a portfolio and a track record, that’s tough to beat. Dick Mayo was a traditional, I’d say portfolio, strong portfolio manager focused on US stocks. So I was at Harvard.

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Valuation Investing Investments Assets 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

Here are some other numbers compared to the S&P 500 and VBAIX which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX replicates 100% into a 60/40 portfolio which leaves 33% left over to do something. In 2022, VBAIX was down 16.87% while Portfolio 2 was only down 10.77%.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 29, 2023

Here I am talking not just portfolio management but overall lifestyle, habits and choices and yes this does filter into my day job managing investment portfolios. In the spring I had a very casual conversation with another advisor who was kicking the tires about having me sub advise his client accounts (I would manage the portfolios).

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Insurance Clients Math Portfolio 78

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 15, 2022

As a quick reminder, a 67% allocation to 90/60 generally equates to a 100% allocation to a 60/40 portfolio like you might get from Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). For this post I assembled a less dramatic portfolio more in line with Krom's thinking. The math shows the NTSX/ARBIX/BTAL combo would be down 14.7%

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Portfolio Math Numbers Marketing 47

Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

Even Mr. Money Mustache, as a person who retired 17 years ago, is still in this boat for the simple reason that my retirement income from dividends and hobby businesses is still greater than my annual living expenses (which still hover around $20,000 per year). 3) Okay, but I really am retired and trying to live off my investments now.

Marketing 57

Marketing Marketing Retirement Investing 57

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 27, 2022

Quite a few years years ago, like maybe 15, I wrote several posts about an idea for portfolio construction from Nassim Taleb where he said he put 90% of his money in T-bills from around the world and then put the remaining 10% in very aggressive holdings with great potential for asymmetric returns. NFDIX gives the portfolio/index 11.2%

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Portfolio Math Management Investing 40

Clever Girl Finance

AUGUST 2, 2022

Let’s look at one tried-and-true way of multiplying your assets: retirement accounts. How to turn 10K into 100K through investing in retirement accounts. Although it may not sound glamorous, retirement accounts are a solid means of increasing your money. IRAs or Roth IRAs. without penalties. Similar to the 401(k) is a 403(b).

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Education Retirement Investing Investments 59

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2019

So it may be surprising to hear that a Roth IRA—a vehicle ostensibly intended for retirement income—can be a powerful mechanism for next-generation wealth transfer. Background Since January 1, 2010, all individuals, regardless of income levels, have been able to convert existing retirement accounts such as traditional IRAs into Roth IRAs.

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Planning Distribution Taxes Accounting 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2019

So it may be surprising to hear that a Roth IRA—a vehicle ostensibly intended for retirement income—can be a powerful mechanism for next-generation wealth transfer. Since January 1, 2010, all individuals, regardless of income levels, have been able to convert existing retirement accounts such as traditional IRAs into Roth IRAs.

Planning 52

Planning Distribution Taxes Accounting 52

The Better Letter

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Based on the above, nobody should be surprised that 2022 looks like it will be the worst year for the classic 60:40 portfolio since 1937’s -22 percent. Wes created a hypothetical stock portfolio constructed with perfect foresight, invested entirely in the top decile of stocks based on their performance over the upcoming five years.

Investing 78

Investing Investments Portfolio Numbers 78

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 1, 2022

Here's a quote I saw attributed to Barry Ritholtz: “The Best Portfolio is probably the one which sacrifices a bit of performance, but helps you sleep at night.” Barry's quote reminded me of another influence on how I try to manage client portfolio volatility and why I use alts (yes, that conversation continues). Cannot be done?

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 14, 2023

She has a really fascinating background, very eclectic, a combination of math and law. You, you get a, a BS in Mathematics and a JD from Boston University Math and Law. It is something, math has always come easy to me since a child. I didn’t get an advanced degree in math. Not the usual combination. What happened?

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Math Management Insurance Assets 130