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joincolossus.com) Finance Christine Benz and Dan Lefkovitz talks markets with Jeremy Grantham of GMO. ritholtz.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk multi-strategy hedge fund math with Dan Morillo, co-founder of Freestone Grove Partners. (joincolossus.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Joe Lonsdale of 8VC.
papers.ssrn.com) The PEG ratio isn't much of a market timing tool. (alphaarchitect.com) Why analysts overestimate earnings growth, 3-5 years out. klementoninvesting.substack.com) The case for building the ERP from the bottom-up. blogs.cfainstitute.org) Sportsbooks seem to anchor on pre-season NFL odds to win the Super Bowl.
This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4. Ignore the scolds.
One way that advisors can help bridge this gap is by using Historical Market Visualization (HiMaV) as a more intuitive alternative for illustrating retirement income strategies. What works about HiMaV is that it grounds financial projections in a story-based context.
riabiz.com) There is no escaping the math on leveraged ETFs. linkedin.com) It's hard to make the math on hedge funds add up. equity market dominance? Top clicks this week Vanguard wants investors to shift from cash into fixed income before its too late. humbledollar.com) What, if anything, can displace U.S.
Markets The S&P 500 returned 5.87% in November 2024. on.spdji.com) It's hard to make the math on hedge funds add up. nytimes.com) Budgeting When you do the math, it's hard to find trillions to save in the federal budget. prospect.org) The math on mass deportation doesn't add up. Just ask Norway.
Only 5 stocks driving markets?! Equal-weighted Nasdaq100 up 17% since the June lows for the market because “it’s only 5 stocks”? How bad at math do you need to be to think that it’s only 5 stocks driving this market? Only 5 stocks driving markets 2. Then why are Equal-weighted indices doing so well?
Markets High yield bonds have bounced back. nytimes.com) Some additional tariff math. theverge.com) Economy The bond market is not having it. morningstar.com) Short interest is ticking higher. ft.com) Companies Retailers have only so much margin to sacrifice to tariffs. axios.com) AI OpenAI is buying Jony Ive's AI startup.
This weekend Jeff Sommer discussed a DFA research paper on market timing; both are well worth your time to read. The broad strokes are: Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any) do it consistently well. Low Stakes : The most successful market timers are often those people who do not have actual assets at risk.
(morningstar.com) The problematic math of passing down generational wealth. awealthofcommonsense.com) The S&P 500 is now nearly 40% of global market cap. rogersplanning.blogspot.com) How market consensus forms. blogs.cfainstitute.org) International diversification requires a long time horizon.
Also on the site The question with emerging market equities is if, not when. morningstar.com) Bull markets have four distinct stages. awealthofcommonsense.com) A look at bond market returns during a yield curve inversion. thinkadvisor.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with Jesse Cramer about the math behind car ownership.
capitalspectator.com) The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) How to make the math behind home ownership work (or not). (behaviouralinvestment.com) Why selling a stock is harder than buying. flyoverstocks.com) Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields.
downtownjoshbrown.com) What's driving stock market returns? humbledollar.com) Doing the math on a hybrid vs. conventional ICE. (wsj.com) The wealth management industry is going to be slammed with demand. awealthofcommonsense.com) 11 financial mistakes to avoid including 'Not carrying umbrella coverage.'
Markets Why the ranks of 'degens' are growing. morningstar.com) Some math that traders need to know. blockworks.co) Autos The car market is normalizing. calculatedriskblog.com) A tighter job market is showing up in more involved application processes. variety.com) Apple ($AAPL) TV has a marketing problem.
But that’s not all : I also have the opportunity to invest those dollars : I can buy a broad market index, expecting it’ll appreciate; I can buy bonds and enjoy the income they yield; I could purchase real estate, which either gives me a place to live or rent out for income; I could also use that money to start or build a business.
If only there were some ways to prevent investors from interfering with the markets greatest strength the incomparable and guaranteed ability to create wealth by compounding over time. Drawdowns, corrections, and crashes are not the problem your behavior in response to market turmoil is what causes long-term financial harm.
(ofdollarsanddata.com) Ten tips for surviving a bear market including 'You’re not limited to one rebalance.' wealthfoundme.com) Bear markets affect different classes of investors in different ways. evidenceinvestor.com) Aging Blair duQuesnay, "The math for accumulation and savings is very different from decumulation and spending."
bonddad.blogspot.com) Texas' housing market is normalizing. bloomberg.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: hedge fund math. (gardenandgun.com) Economy The hurricanes are going to mess with economic data for awhile. axios.com) Not a lot to see in the September PPI report.
Strategy On the strange math of stock returns. morningstar.com) The Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF ($MMKT) has launched. (fa-mag.com) fortunesandfrictions.com) Betting on smart beta has generally not worked out well for investors. morningstar.com) Companies Uber ($UBER) is making progress towards becoming a 'super-app.'
These days, turning on the TV to get the latest news about the markets and the economy can be enough to send anyone into panic mode. The second section of your book focuses on Bad Numbers, or in other words, misleading numbers that could drive the economy, the markets and ultimately, your investments.
Markets A deluge of T-bills is coming. finance.yahoo.com) Strategy Is this a new bull market? calculatedriskblog.com) Home buying math is bad right now, but will it be any better a year from now? wsj.com) Why merger arbitrage is become more difficult in this environment. Does it matter? year-over-year.
peterlazaroff.com) Bogumil Baranowski talks with Brian Feroldi, author of "Why the Stock Market Goes Up." vox.com) Housing The worst case for the housing market - worsening affordability. awealthofcommonsense.com) The math on downsizing your house isn't working as well these days.
wsj.com) Housing Options are few for people looking to get into the housing market. awealthofcommonsense.com) Home buying math is bad right now, but will it be any better a year from now? (humbledollar.com) Parents How to negotiate with aging parents. kffhealthnews.org) What happens when you inherit your parent's home.
To say that inflation data during the first quarter of the year surprised us and the markets is clearly an understatement and by Tuesday of this week, with the higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) print for April, markets were clearly on edge as they were also potentially expecting a higher reading for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. (..)
We simply do not know; there are always myriad factors at play in our dynamic labor market. That’s not even math. They show a net gain of a statistically insignificant 13 jobs added. There were 2k shed in March. Was that related to the minimum wage? The wage hike took place Apr 1 2024. That’s just being able to read a calendar.
TikTokInvestors: “Apart from his misleading arrogance and the inaccurate market statistics mentioned, a 401K is possibly the best investment vehicle for the average American. I doubt he’s run the real numbers of being invested in the stock market tax deferred with an additional company match. The dumbest idea ever!
nytimes.com) A twice-year shot to prevent HIV is likely coming to market. theatlantic.com) The tough math of being a professional tennis player. (wsj.com) Everybody talks their book, especially wellness influencers. apnews.com) Health Huge news. An actual treatment for multiple myeloma.
Also in industry news this week: A recent survey indicates that financial advisors continue to move towards ETFs and away from mutual funds when it comes to client portfolio recommendations, though a majority of advisors continue to see a role for active management in the investment management process A former employee has filed a lawsuit alleging (..)
Barron’s ) • The Bear Market’s Survivors Share Their Biggest Lessons : With the S&P 500 in the longest bear market since 1973, individual investors maneuver differently from just months ago. But most of all, it was just simple maths according to Druck. The easy part is over. The first was don’t lose money.
Bill Hester from Hussman Funds had a lengthy write up on diversifiers that track what he called Bear Market Cumulative Returns (BMCR). A portfolio that goes narrower than an S&P 500 500 or total market fund probably has some exposure to low vol, dividends and the others. for example. Now for a little more fun.
Additionally, certain types of Monte Carlo analyses were found to be more error-prone than others, including a Traditional Monte Carlo approach using a single set of Capital Markets Assumptions (CMAs) applied across the entire plan, and a Reduced-CMA Monte Carlo analysis, similar to the Traditional model but with CMAs reduced by 2%.
You need to understand how math, statistics and probabilities work. You also need a deep understanding of financial market history from booms to. You need to understand corporations and the global economy generally function over the long haul.
His philanthropy includes sitting on the board of directors of Paul Tudor Jones’ Robin Hood Foundation and Jim Simon’s Math for America. He is fond of noting: “Markets spend a lot of time doing nothing, then they reprice.” He explains what the trading experience was like on Black Monday, 1987.
bakadesuyo.com) Blair duQuesnay, "The math for accumulation and savings is very different from decumulation and spending." humbledollar.com) Now is the time to clear out all your bad trades before a new bull market gears up. (genyplanning.com) Nine steps to becoming a better negotiator. neckar.substack.com).
Bloomberg ) • From Pepperoni Math to Nepo Babies, Summer Is for Interns : Your first experience at work is not often forgotten. The rental market slowdown in finally reflected in inflation numbers Source: Apartment List Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here. Buffett won).
As one reader recently asked me in an email: The market seems to be in a huge bubble right now due to all sorts of hype around Artificial Intelligence. To answer this question, lets take a closer look at our current somewhat unprecedented financial world and stock market. Now back to the stock market. Its just basic math.
Morgan Housel Finance types tend to focus on attributes like intelligence, math skills and computer programming. You can know everything about math and data and markets, but if you don’t control your sense of greed and fear and you’re managing uncertainty in your behavior, none of it matters. None of it matters.
The recent stock market activity has given us plenty of opportunities to experience extremes of emotion… but then again, you can pretty much choose any time period and make a similar statement. There’s no shame in admitting that factor – for a lot of us, math can be very tough. We Want Control… or Do We?
Autos Ben Carlson and Michael Batnick talk with CarDealershipGuy about the state of the American car market. theirrelevantinvestor.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with Jesse Cramer about the math behind car ownership. thomaskopelman.com) Cash Not all government money market funds are created alike. Life intervenes.
You need to understand how math, statistics and probabilities work. You also need a deep understanding of financial market history from booms to busts. You need to understand how corporations and the global economy generally function over the long haul.
I'm far from an expert in this area, but it's obvious that some difficult decisions will need to be made, because unless the market bails them out, the math doesn't work. The post The Math Doesn’t Work appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor. Source: Pension Funds’ Dilemma: What To Buy When Nothing Is Cheap?
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