Sat.Aug 26, 2023 - Fri.Sep 01, 2023

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Time to get “Real” about the coming recession

David Nelson

By David Nelson, CFA Traveler’s usually follow in the footsteps of those who have successfully navigated the journey before them. Even Dorothy along with a few friends and her trusty dog Toto had the Yellow Brick Road. Investors are no different. We stick to the path as long as we can but have to be prepared to alter course when the weather turns.

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Unemployment Up 0.3% = Fed on Hold

The Big Picture

The Fed is done. It’s unimaginable that they will do anything at the September FOMC meeting, and barring any radical change in the data, it’s unlikely they will be doing anything in November. I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening.

Economy 310
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TD Ameritrade To Schwab Conversion Tips For Financial Advisors

Nerd's Eye View

The announcement of the merger between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade in November 2019 kicked off a marathon of preparation for advisory firms to transition their clients on the TD Ameritrade custodial platform to Schwab. And with the final conversion of clients scheduled to take place over the upcoming Labor Day weekend of 2023, the marathon is approaching its final sprint toward the finish line.

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Longform links: distracted from leisure

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Gloria Mark, author of "Attention Span: A Groundbreaking Way to Restore Balance, Happiness and Productivity." (annieduke.substack.com) A Q&A with Sara Petersen author of "Momfluenced: Inside the Maddening, Picture-Perfect World of Mommy Influencer Culture." (annehelen.substack.com) Technology It's easy to miss the story of exponential technological change.

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Live Demo: How to Achieve Reconciliation Zen

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

U.S. appeals court rules in favor of Grayscale over bitcoin ETF dispute with the SEC from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Crafting More Equitable Advisor Non-Solicit Agreements With The ACRES Agreement

Nerd's Eye View

Non-compete agreements (where a company prohibits an employee from working for competitors, at least for a certain period of time) are often used to help companies protect their investment in the employee (e.g., the time and money spent training the employee) as well as preventing the employee from taking the company's best practices to a new job at a competitor.

Clients 233
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Thursday links: impulsive and irreverent

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Some neglected aspects of investing including 'The influence of luck in outcomes.' (investmenttalk.co) The story of a top investor's mistake holding a stock too long. (morningstar.com) Banks How is the integration of First Republic going for JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)? (theinformation.com) More capital would not have saved SVB. (ft.com) Finance A handful of big IPOs are queued up after Labor Day including Instacart, Arm Holdings and Klayvio.

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Clips From Today’s Closing Bell

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Alphabet, Transocean & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bell appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end of August, morning train WFH reads: • Money Is Pouring Into AI. Skeptics Say It’s a ‘Grift Shift.’ The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real. ( Institutional Investor ) • What to Do With a 45-Story Skyscraper and No Tenants : HSBC’s plan to leave its Canary Wharf tower for a smaller site shows the global challenges ahead in repurposing unwanted office space for a post-pandemic world. ( Citylab ) see al

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 2-3)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled that the state's fiduciary rule for broker-dealers can stand, potentially opening the door for other states to impose similar standards that exceed the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Regulation Best Interest rule.

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Podcast links: the soundtrack of our lives

Abnormal Returns

The biz For some people podcasts have been the soundtrack of their everyday lives. (washingtonpost.com) The top 10 podcasts for CEOs in 2023 including 'How I Built This.' (readwrite.com) Ten of the best science and technology podcasts including 'Science Vs.' (newscientist.com) Five evergreen podcasts including 'Gastropod.' (readtrung.com) Finance Barry Ritholtz talks with Vanguard's CIO Greg Davis.

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It’s Time to Buy Value Stocks Now

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►Goldman/Grayscale – They found a buyer. Sounds like it took a week of discussions. ►Earnings Revisions – “Stock prices correcting as earning estimates continue to rise” ►Value Stocks – N.

Investing 130
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MiB: Greg Davis, CIO Vanguard

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Vanguard’s chief investment officer Greg Davis. He is responsible for the oversight of approximately $7 trillion managed by Vanguard fixed income, equity index, and quantitative equity groups. Davis also serves as a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the US Treasury Department. He has more than 25 years of investment management experience.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in July

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during July 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,972.6 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,958.9 billion. The July figure is 5.5 percent above the July 2022 estimate of $1,869.3 billion. emphasis added Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,548.9 billio

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Tuesday links: over-optimized content

Abnormal Returns

Strategy How (and where) to hold cash in your portfolio. (morningstar.com) For alternatives, Is illiquidity a feature or a bug? (savantwealth.com) Don't underestimate how weird the world can be. (mr-stingy.com) Crypto Grayscale won a victory against the SEC raising the prospects of a spot Bitcoin ETF. (blockworks.co) The entire crypto space jumped on the news.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Arista Networks upgraded to a buy from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Mind the Gap

The Big Picture

Morningstar blames “mistimed purchases and sales;” Carl Richards calls it the “ Behavior Gap.” Vanguard’s Fran Kinnery describes the cure as “ Advisors Alpha.” Whatever phrase you select, the persistent gap between investors’ performance and the assets they hold is a substantial drag on returns. I mention this in case you missed this Morningstar report “ Mind the Gap: A report on investor returns in the U.S. ” on the topic; it snuck by during the dog days of summer.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Life Insurance Awareness Month Aims to Bolster Americans' Financial Security

NAIFA Advisor Today

September is Life Insurance Awareness Month, a 20-year tradition created and coordinated by NAIFA partner Life Happens and commemorated by the entire life insurance industry, elected officials , and consumers across the country. The goal of LIAM is to put the importance of life insurance front-of-mind for a greater number of Americans and help more people get the coverage they need so their loved ones are protected financially.

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Friday links: a key consideration

Abnormal Returns

August 2023 How major asset classes performed in August 2023. (capitalspectator.com) A summary of S&P Dow Jones index returns in August 2023. (on.spdji.com) Rates The bond market is completely different that it was a year ago. (awealthofcommonsense.com) U.S Treasury bonds are no track for their third straight year of losses. (markets.businessinsider.com) Companies How retailers have responded to the post-pandemic era.

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Family Offices Look Ready to Step Up Real Estate Investment. What Are They Looking for in Their Partners?

Wealth Management

Transparency in financial reporting, favorable partnership structures are taking on more importance for family offices in a riskier investment climate.

Investing 128
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Hey, it’s September! Kick off the new month with our end-of-week 3-day weekend reads: • Rates Are Up. We’re Just Starting to Feel the Heat. Homeowners. Car buyers. Landlords. Big businesses. Here’s who stands to lose—and in some surprising cases, win—as interest rates stay high in the years ahead. ( Wall Street Journal ) • Little evidence that a spot bitcoin ETF would expand the market : BlackRock’s application and Grayscale’s court victory stirred the crypto world, but such investment veh

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Comments on August Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. The participation rate increased, and the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.8%. The increase in the unemployment rate was due to the increase in the participation rate as 736 thousand people jointed the labor force in August.

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Personal finance links: accumulation vs. decumulation

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Tyler Olsen about strategically paying down student debt. (peterlazaroff.com) Captain FI talks financial independence with Jonathan Clements. (captainfi.com) Frazer Rice talks longevity and aging with Phil Pearlman of the Pearl Institute. (open.spotify.com) Morgan Housel on the difference between intelligence and smarts.

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Incorporating Life Settlements into Your Client Strategy

Wealth Management

A policy that performs justifies the premium costs and liquidity constraints. Unfortunately, it's all too common for life insurance to use and hold value that's better deployed elsewhere.

Clients 117
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10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My mid-week morning train reads: • Has Xi Jinping bankrupted China? It is finally possible to imagine a post-Communist regime. ( UnHerd ) • The Pandemic Transformed America’s Biggest Downtowns in Very Different Ways : While transit ridership and downtown dining took a big hit across the board, new commuting patterns and retail spending vary widely across the US. ( Citylab ) • Larry Summers’ Comparison of 2013–23 Inflation with 1966–76 Is Uninformed Madness : How incredibly wrong was Larry Summer

Retail 130
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 25, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 115
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Adviser links: motivational interviewing

Abnormal Returns

Charles Schwab Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is rebranding TDA's video news efforts. (riabiz.com) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is planning more job cuts due to the TDA integration. (investmentnews.com) Pro bono planning Does financial planning have a pro bono problem? (mywealthplanners.com) The CFP Board wants to encourage pro bono planning. (investmentnews.com) Practice management How choosing an advisory niche makes for better marketing efforts.

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RIA Roundup: Venerable Holdings to Create RIA

Wealth Management

Two new players enter the RIA space; Baird adds a bank team with half a billion in assets; and Creative Planning and Focus Financial both make big announcements.

Banking 120