August, 2019

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The Rise of Amazon

The Irrelevant Investor

"The losses were a lot bigger than expected." Mary meeker said this on a podcast called Land of the Giants , an excellent six-part series on the rise of Amazon. What she was referring to were the losses Amazon experienced in its first *21 quarters as a public company*. Over that time, cumulative net income was -$2.86 billion. As bottom line losses piled up, top line growth averaged a blistering 229%.

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Investment Perspectives | Cool Change

Brown Advisory

Investment Perspectives | Cool Change ajackson Tue, 08/06/2019 - 08:46 "Time for a cool change; I know that it's time for a cool change." —Little River Band, 1979 Changes occur for a variety of reasons. Sometimes a major event makes it clear that an immediate course correction is needed. Other times, a series of occurrences allows a decision to evolve gradually.

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Animal Spirits: Best Case Recession

The Irrelevant Investor

On today's show we discuss Don't say no to YES Streaming and bundles Google search results Why is Joe Rogan so popular Student loan survey (believe this one) Noobwhale.com (funding secured) Listen here: Recommendations Bitcoin Billionaires Koppelman with Mezrich Land of the Giants (podcast) Tweets [link] [link] [link] The post Animal Spirits: Best Case Recession appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

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Animal Spirits Re-Kindled: Amusing Ourselves to Death

The Irrelevant Investor

On today's show, Ben and I talk about Amusing Ourselves to Death: Public Discourse in the Age of Show Business. This book was written in 1985 about what the history of communication until the modern age. He was more than a little critical of what TV was doing to our society. Oh if he could only see Bravo today. I could only imagine what Postman would have to say about social media.

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles In frothy markets, it's easy to enter into a consensual hallucination, with investors and markets, that you’re creating value By Scott Galloway There are precedents for taking a commodity product and turning it into a brand By Byrne Hobart A gift to exist By Ramp Capital The problem with simplicity is that the reps don’t hurt, so you don’t feel like you’re getting a mental workout.

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Animal Spirits: Paycheck to Paycheck

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts. Mention Animal Spirits to receive 20% off (*New YCharts users only) On today’s show we discuss Noobwhale.com Bill McBride's take on the yield curve When everyone knows everything We may never see positive rates again Bonds are frickin expensive Galloway on WeWork Amazon is on Twitter putting out fires What happens when you combine finances with your spouse?

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Animal Spirits Talk Your Book: Invest like a Hedge Fund with Titan

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Animal Spirits, Talk Your Book is presented by Titan Invest. Visit their website for more information Listen here: On today's show, Ben and I sit down with Titan co-founder Clay Gardner. Titan is a robo advisor that uses active investment strategies. We discuss What is a 13F filing and how Titan uses it. How they leverage hedge funds to build client portfolios Titan's investment research and client communication The automated investing landscape The state of active management Meb Faber's

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles ETFs only own approximately 6% of the stock market By Nate Geraci What we want and what we need change over time By Tadas Viskanta Many products in teacher’s 403(b)’s are illegal in 401(k)’s. By Tony Isola Imagine trying to convince one of these people that they couldn’t be in the top 20% when they are used to being in the top 1% By Nick Maggiulli The more important the technology is today, the more skepticism it faced when it arrived.

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Grief and Loss

The Irrelevant Investor

When Stephen Colbert was ten years old, he lost his father and two of his brothers in a plane crash. He spoke about it recently with Anderson Cooper. Cooper said "You told an interviewer that you have learned to, in your words, 'Love the thing that I most wish had not happened.'" [link] My mother was 57 years old when she passed away. I was 26. And what Colbert told Cooper hits very close to home.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Everybody Knows Everything

The Irrelevant Investor

My wife sent me the following text message this morning: "There is a whole thread about this in a NYC DOE teacher Facebook group I'm in." The text was followed by the image below. A TDA, or tax-deferred annuity, is a 403(b), which is the equivalent of a 401(k) for teachers, hospital workers, and other not-for-profit organizations. Emotion was running high in this thread.

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N00BWhale

The Irrelevant Investor

A few weeks ago Ben and I got the following email: I think the show would benefit from a logo (or a mascot), and there is no better fit than the noob whale. I'm thinking something to the effect of when you google "whale cartoon", but maybe just like a silhouette. One of the things that makes you guys so great is humility, so it fits personality-wise.

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The Quote of the Decade

The Irrelevant Investor

Howard Marks recently said "The process of lowering rates causes assets to inflate. There will be more wealth piled up by the people who have assets and it'll be harder for people who just have a little bit of savings to make a return." Marks is hardly alone in this line of thinking. "The Fed is punishing savers" is one of the most commonly used financial quotes of the last decade.

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The Game Has Changed

The Irrelevant Investor

2019 has not been kind to a certain segment of the brick and mortar retailer. Neither was 2018, 2017, or 2016. Not even five years ago, Bed Bath & Beyond was at $80 a share. Today it sits just above $8. A similar story has come to pass in JC Penney and Macy's, with a few others not far behind. In a recent Barron's article , The Retail Reckoning Has Just Begun, they identified one of the main drivers of their demise.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles Very few of us are sabotaging our finances on purpose. By Ben Carlson What you and every other investor cares about is purchasing power , not price By Nick Maggiulli U.S. Franchises directly employed almost 8 million people, represented 10% of non-farm U.S. businesses, and generated $757 billion in output By Justine and Olivia Moore The two most important secular drivers are demographics and technology.

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Animal Spirits: The Bankrupt Barber

The Irrelevant Investor

Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts. Mention Animal Spirits to receive 20% off (*New YCharts users only) On today’s show we discuss Ben was right about Japan's private market. The case for cash now We're making noobwhale t-shirts and donating the proceeds to this charity Beyond diapers I still don't know how they find these people If that was the top, this is the post Ben is a great saver.

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Is This the Bottom?

The Irrelevant Investor

This is a perfect analogy for investor psychology. This is how our brain works when stocks are falling and we're trying to figure out if it's the bottom. [link] The post Is This the Bottom? appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

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Investment Perspectives | Cool Change

Brown Advisory

Investment Perspectives | Cool Change. ajackson. Tue, 08/06/2019 - 08:46. "Time for a cool change; I know that it's time for a cool change.". —Little River Band, 1979. Changes occur for a variety of reasons. Sometimes a major event makes it clear that an immediate course correction is needed. Other times, a series of occurrences allows a decision to evolve gradually.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Yuan Redux

The Irrelevant Investor

For the second time in five years, China devalued its currency. The last time this happened was on August 24, 2015. This is a day that market participants will remember well. The Dow opened down more than one thousand points. I remember running into Josh's office saying, "health-care is gone. XLV is down 20%." In the first 15 minutes there were 1,278 trading halts for 471 different ETFs and stocks. 765 stocks in the Russell 3000 fell more than 10%.

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Superforecasting, Re-Kindled

The Irrelevant Investor

On today's Animal Spirits, Re-Kindled, Ben and I dive into one of the best books ever on decision making, Superforecasting. Listen here Items discussed An open letter to Ben Bernanke Quotes "Every day, the news media deliver forecasts without reporting, or even asking, how good the forecasters who made the forecasts really are." "Old forecasts are like old news- soon forgotten- and pundits are almost never asked to reconcile what they said with what actually happened.

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles The popularity of theater-going has been in decline for close to 20 years. By Matthew Ball Whatever price multiple of which you are a fan, whichever sectors you exclude, however you neutralize your exposures, whether you equal-weight or cap-weight, one thing remains true: cheap stocks have had an unhappy decade By John Pease The best performing 811 companies (1.33% of the total) accounted for all net global wealth creation.

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Never Argue With People Who Say

The Irrelevant Investor

Disagreements are healthy. Arguments are not. Compromises start out as disagreements. Broken relationships start out as arguments. Arguments are dead ends because people don't change their minds when they're using emotions instead of data. Thankfully, would-be arguers often tip their hand. Here are a few red flags to look out for: In Life "I've been saying this and nobody would listen" You've said a lot of things that weren't worth listening to "I told you so" What are you seven years old?

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts

The Irrelevant Investor

The current environment has been a challenging one for value investors. The bottom decile of value stocks, whether you're looking at EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, P/E or whatever, have produced returns that badly lagged the overall market. The chart below shows that value, defined here by book-to-market, is in its longest drawdown ever, by far. I know you're probably tired of reading the same things over and over, but I think this piece from GMO, Risk and Premium: A Tale of Value is worth taking the time.

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The Long Game: Roth Conversions & Legacy Planning

Brown Advisory

The Long Game: Roth Conversions & Legacy Planning ajackson Thu, 08/01/2019 - 14:51 Legacy planning is all about transferring wealth to descendants as efficiently as possible. So it may be surprising to hear that a Roth IRA—a vehicle ostensibly intended for retirement income—can be a powerful mechanism for next-generation wealth transfer. Indeed, a Roth conversion has the potential to generate greater wealth than a traditional IRA during an individual’s or couple’s lifetime, and it can play a mea

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The Long Game: Roth Conversions & Legacy Planning

Brown Advisory

The Long Game: Roth Conversions & Legacy Planning. ajackson. Thu, 08/01/2019 - 14:51. Legacy planning is all about transferring wealth to descendants as efficiently as possible. So it may be surprising to hear that a Roth IRA—a vehicle ostensibly intended for retirement income—can be a powerful mechanism for next-generation wealth transfer. Indeed, a Roth conversion has the potential to generate greater wealth than a traditional IRA during an individual’s or couple’s lifetime, and it can play a

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“Make It Stop”

The Irrelevant Investor

Every time the stock market falls, no really, every single time, a friend of mine texts me the same thing: "Make it stop." And every time I tell him the same thing- "You should hope stocks go a lot lower." For people still contributing to their retirement accounts, they shouldn't fear lower prices, they should pray for them. Let's look at a real world hypothetical example.

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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Calibrating Your Risk Tolerance

The Irrelevant Investor

You can learn a lot about yourself as an investor on a single day. For many, Friday was one of those days. With trade war rhetoric heating up and the stock market melting down, you likely experienced some internal turbulence. If the drop on Friday made you nervous about your portfolio to the point where you felt like pushing a button, you're probably taking too much risk.

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Animal Spirits: Business in a Box

The Irrelevant Investor

On today's show, we discussed: Business in a box The influencer marketing business Do moviegoers have franchise fatigue? What I wish I knew at age 34 The narrative of negative rates Negative mortgage rates. Sort of. Apple's new credit card The food delivery business is booming The business of Planet Fitness Millennials have no friends (according to this survey) The single best investment for the next decade (also, survey) Cutting out the sports agent Klay Thompson of FIRE fame SPY is one funky

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It’s Hard to Think Long-Term

The Irrelevant Investor

In the first of seven Lincoln Douglas debates, Stephen Douglas was slated to take the stage first. The deal was that he would get one hour, Lincoln would follow with a ninety minute rebuttal, and Douglas would then be given a final thirty minutes to follow back. This format, believe it or not, was much shorter than the two men were accustomed to. Neil Postman wrote about the audience's ability to withstand hours and hours of dialogue in his fabulous and prescient book, Amusing Ourselves to Death