Thu.Jan 18, 2024

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Thursday links: navigating a minefield

Abnormal Returns

Markets Managed futures did not have a great 2023. (rcmalternatives.com) Blackrock's ($BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ($IBIT) has surpassed $1 billion in AUM. (blockworks.co) Strategy How to use AI to do fundamental company analysis. (howardlindzon.com) How to use a negative checklist. (novelinvestor.com) Finance Does private credit actually reduce systemic financial risk?

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What is the Historical Rate of Return on Housing?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Ben, I love reading your work. Stocks, bonds, and cash are the categories to compare but it hit me as a “boomer” retired, what about home ownership as a comparison? Stay warm! This question was in response to my recent piece on the historical returns for stocks, bonds and cash: There are typically a fair number of requests for other asset classes whenever I post this kind of data.

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Longform links: the whole journey

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters" by Brian Klass. (theatlantic.com) An excerpt from Lisa Whittington-Hill’s new book, "The Go-Go’s: Beauty and the Beat." (longreads.com) Business Problems at Boeing ($BA) have been brewing for a long time. (wsj.com) How the venture capital industry has evolved from its cottage industry beginnings.

Food 202
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Some IBDs Limiting Advisor Use of Bitcoin ETFs

Wealth Management

Commonwealth and others are restricting advisors from using the new Bitcoin ETFs, while Cambridge and LPL require advisors get trained before they can invest for clients. Cetera expects to allow the ETFs by the end of the first quarter.

Clients 110
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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Recession Likely in the First Half of 2024

Advisor Perspectives

From March 2022 to July of this year, the Fed raised rates by 500 basis points. But the economy has done well this year, with GDP growth of 2.0%, 2.1% and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Does that mean the lagged impacts of the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening cycle will be fully felt in the year ahead? Is a second wave of inflation remains a major risk?

Economy 105

More Trending

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Safety Not Guaranteed

The Better Letter

We are a fear-laden society obsessed with safety and risk avoidance. That might not be such a great idea, as this week’s TBL describes. If you like The Better Letter , please subscribe, share it, and forward it widely. Subscribe now Share The Better Letter Get more from Bob Seawright in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app NOTE: Some email services will likely truncate TBL.

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DOJ Charges Former Citi Advisor With Defrauding Clients While Funding Film Career

Wealth Management

Helen Grace Caldwell faces 20 years in prison after being charged with wire fraud in a scheme that allegedly stole $1.5 million from clients, according to the Justice Department.

Clients 107
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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 7.9% YoY; New Listings up 7.0% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending January 13, 2024 • Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 7.9% above year ago levels. Active listings in the past week grew by 7.9% above the previous year, the 10th straight week of annual growth. Active inventory picked up slightly compared to the previous week, diverging from the typical seasonal pattern which would suggest falling inventory

Sales 92
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Plancorp: Dipping A Toe In The AI Waters, With An Eye On Cybersecurity

Wealth Management

Mike Esson, chief information security officer of $6 billion AUM Plancorp, seeks an edge through the latest technology but always weighs it against data security.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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The Compound and Friends: Adam Parker Returns

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Jensen Investment Management: See here for more information on Jensen’s quality-focused strategies On today’s show, we discuss: Banks are the best-performing industry over the last three months Consumers start 2024 on strong footing after a jolly holiday Mortgage demand surges more than 10% as lower interest rates lure homebuyers Listen here: Char.

Banking 75
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Alphathena’s AI-Enabled Direct Indexing Tool Scores $4M in VC Funding

Wealth Management

Able to create direct indexing portfolios in minutes, the SaaS platform has attracted funding in a venture capital round led by ETFS Capital.

Portfolio 114
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6 topics to talk with clients about early in the year

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Bryce Sanders Let’s hear it for optimism! As a financial advisor, I loved the start of a new year. From day one, the firm’s biggest producers and I were on the same starting line. Other advisors might be pessimistic, seeing new goals to be achieved from that same starting line. Regardless of your outlook, you need clients to do business. How are you going to make that happen?

Clients 75
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Housing Starts Fall 4.3% in December

Advisor Perspectives

In December, housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.460 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.426 million. This marks a 4.3% decrease from November and a 7.6% rise compared to one year ago.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Nova AgriTech IPO Review – GMP, Details, Price & More

Trade Brains

Nova AgriTech IPO Review: The Agricultural sector continues to remain the largest employer in India, with 58% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. There is a growing population and a drop in arable land, all of this requires farmers to produce more grains than they did before. Today we will talk about one such Company that produces consumables in the form of crop protection products.

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Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Value Falls in December

Advisor Perspectives

In December, nominal home values increased for a 9th straight months while "real" home values fell for a 4th straight month. Last month's ZHVI came in at $342,685, up 0.12% from the previous month and up 2.64% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are -0.35% month-over-month and -3.49% year-over-year.

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Bajaj Auto Surpasses ?2 Lakh Cr Mcap – Check Revenue Segments and Outlook

Trade Brains

Bajaj Auto : On January 8, 2024, Bajaj Auto Ltd’s market capitalization surged ₹2 lakh crore to become the third largest automobile company, surpassing Mahindra and Mahindra. With a market valuation of ₹3.13 lakh crore, Maruti Suzuki continues to be the most valuable auto stock in the nation; Tata Motors is second with a market capitalization of ₹2.9 lakh crore.

Sales 59
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Unemployment Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since September 2022

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending January 13, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 187,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 207,000 and marks the lowest level for initial jobless claims since September 2022.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Market Update – Q4 2023

ModernAdvisor

Commentary Results from the Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey released in October showed business sentiment was weak with high interest rates expected to weigh on consumer demand. Q3 GDP released at the end of November showed the economy contracted at a -1.1% annualized pace in the third quarter, wiping out most of the Q2 revised +1.4% increase.

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Building Permits Rise 1.9% in December

Advisor Perspectives

In December, building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.495 million, surpassing the forecasted 1.480 million. This marks a 1.9% increase from November and a 6.1% rise compared to one year ago.

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LA Port Inbound Traffic Increased Year-over-year in December

Calculated Risk

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted several years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast ( recently the drought in Panama has slowed canal traffic ). Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nati

Retail 58
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Blackstone and BlackRock Master the Art of Moneymaking

Advisor Perspectives

Two major events are shaking up the asset-management world. Blackstone Inc. raised $1.3 billion for its first retail private equity fund, targeting those who have at least $5 million to invest.

Retail 59
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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December; California Home Sales Down 7.1% YoY in December

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Here is some more local data prior to the NAR release tomorrow. Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release December existing home sales on Friday, January 19th, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 3.84 million SAAR, up from 3.82 million in November.

Sales 58
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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Continued to Decline in January

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index inched up this month but remained in negative territory, marking the 5th straight month of contraction and continuing to indicate overall decline. In January, the index rose to -10.6 from -12.8 in December, coming in below the forecast of -7.0. The six-month outlook dropped to -4.0, its lowest level since May.

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Friday: Existing Home Sales

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.84 million SAAR, up from 3.82 million. • Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for January).

Sales 58
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Membership is Bigger in Texas

NAIFA Advisor Today

This week we brought staff and leaders together to host a new member orientation for the Texas state chapter. With so many new members coming into the NAIFA Family from the merger with FSP, the NAIFA-Texas board thought it would be a great idea to supplement the orientation that NAIFA holds every week with their "Welcome to Your State Chapter" so that they could tell members all about the history, culture, and activities that make NAIFA-Texas uniquely NAIFA-Texas.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 187,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending January 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 187,000 , a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when it was 182,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 203,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average.

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Bond Traders Pare Odds of Fed Rate Cut in March

Advisor Perspectives

Bond traders abandoned wagers that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March, pushing swap rates to levels consistent with only about 50% odds of a quarter-point reduction in the federal funds target during the first quarter.

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Introducing the NAIFA-FSP Resource Center

NAIFA Advisor Today

The NAIFA-FSP Resource Center is a benefit available to all NAIFA members and their colleagues in the financial profession. The center is a library of free downloadable content including white papers, webinars, product guides, case studies, industry analysis, and much more, provided by experts and vendors within the insurance industry.