Fri.Sep 22, 2023

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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.

Economics 325
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A Sneak Peek at the Potential 2024 Estate and Gift Tax Rates

Wealth Management

Wherever there's change, there's also opportunity.

Taxes 321
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Jeremy Grantham, Bubble Historian

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Valuation 306
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NCAA Athlete Compensation: Supporting College Athletes with Financial Planning

Wealth Management

With NIL deals becoming more and more prevalent, student-athletes need trusted guidance on what the opportunities are and ultimately what to do based on their unique situations.

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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.4 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY

Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact (pay content). Brief excerpt: The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3 brands is negligible. The vehicles currently impacted by shutdowns either are products with high brand loyalty, in segments dominated by the three strike-impacted manufacturers or have plenty of inventory. emphasis added Click on graph for larger i

Sales 302
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A Look at CBRE Investment Management’s Push on Private Infrastructure

Wealth Management

The investment management firm has been beefing up its staff to capitalize on an asset class with strong investor interest.

More Trending

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11 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (Sept. 22, 2023)

Wealth Management

Bisnow analyzed the rising trend of “dequity” placements—a mix between debt and equity—that some real estate investors are now using. W.P. Carey is moving forward with a two-part plan to exit the office sector. These are among the must reads from the real estate investment world at the end of the week.

Planning 298
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Podcast links: the crypto crash

Abnormal Returns

Podcasting Jim O'Shaughnessy talks the business of podcasting with Danny Miranda. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Khe Hy talks with Johnny Miller about the attraction of listening to podcast on 2x. (podcasts.apple.com) Zeke Faux Joshua Brown and Michael Batnick talk with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall." (youtube.com) Aaron Lammer, Max Linsky, and Evan Ratliff talk with Zeke Faux author of "Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall.

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RIA Roundup: NFP Acquires Divergent Wealth Advisors

Wealth Management

NFP grew its wealth and retirement business in Utah, R&R left Avantax for Commonwealth, tru Independence launched its 4th firm of 2023 and Johnson Financial, LPL and Kestra all made announcements this week.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 23-24)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Investment Adviser Association has petitioned the SEC to ask the regulator to change how it defines a small adviser from one with less than $25 million under management to a firm with 100 or fewer employees. The group argued that this change would help more small firms, which tend not to have the same staffing and resources compared to their larger counterparts, as the

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Puerto Rico Is Being Far Too Generous With Rich Investors

Wealth Management

The US commonwealth has become one of the world’s most attractive capital gains tax havens, and its residents don’t have much to show for it.

Taxes 277
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Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased Slightly in August

Calculated Risk

From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Performance Remains Strong, but Slowing Improvement Suggests Delinquencies May Be Nearing Cycle Lows • At 3.17%, the U.S. delinquency rate improved by 4 basis points in August and is nearly a full percentage point below its 2015-2019 same-month average • However, steady slowing in the annual rate of improvement -- from -40% in early 2022 to -0.8% as of August – suggests delinquency rates may be nearing cycle lows • Serious delinquencies (90+

Numbers 182
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Private Equity Won’t Diversify Your Portfolio

Wealth Management

Investing in such funds makes sense if you want more risk and illiquidity — and are willing to pay for it.

Portfolio 252
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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 40 States in August (3-Month Basis)

Calculated Risk

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for August 2023. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 40 states, decreased in eight states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 64. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 30 states, decreased in 13 states, and remained stable in seven, for a one-month diffusion index of 34.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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SEC Fines Goldman Sachs, Citadel Over Trading Errors

Wealth Management

The SEC fined Goldman Sachs $6 million for sending inaccurate or incomplete trading data and Citadel $7 million for breaking short sales labeling rules and incorrectly marking millions of trade orders.

Sales 223
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Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Overall, the data flow since our last report left our 3Q and 2Q US GDP tracking unchanged at 2.9% q/q saar and 2.3% q/q saar, respectively. [Sept 22nd estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (qoq ar). [Sept 21st estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 19 , unchanged from September 14 after rou

Investing 147
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How to Outperform

A Wealth of Common Sense

Kerala is a coastal state in India with a large fishing industry. Beginning in 1997, mobile phones were introduced to the region. By 2001 more than 60% of the fishers and traders were using phones to coordinate sales and set prices for the fish. Robert Jensen used data from this market in a research paper called The Digital Provide to show how the addition of more information impacted fish prices in the marketplace.

Sales 140
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Should You T-Bill and Chill?

Discipline Funds

T-Bills are an incredibly attractive option at this time. At 5.5% you’re getting high income, high principal stability and tax efficiency across very predictable short-term time horizons. These are the highest rates we’ve seen since the mid-2000s so it’s a welcome change from the 10 years of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). In recent months I’ve heard the term “T-Bill and chill” more and more often.

Portfolio 136
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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank : The concept of Small Finance Banks (SFB) was introduced in India in 2015. It was done with the aim of promoting financial inclusion for the unbanked and underbanked population. This population is situated generally in tier-3 & tier-4 areas. An SFBs main aim is to develop a market to promote a credit market to provide loans to MSMEs, among other lending services.

Banking 126
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The Research and Development Factor

Alpha Architect

The higher returns to high R&D stocks represent compensation for heightened systematic risk not captured in standard asset pricing models. The Research and Development Factor was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Assets 124
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Top Indian Stocks Held By JP Morgan – Portfolio Analysis!

Trade Brains

Top Indian Stocks Held By JP Morgan : JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is a financial holding corporation that, through its subsidiaries, provides solutions for consumer and commercial banking, investment banking, processing financial transactions, and asset management. Consumer companies include things like credit cards, small businesses, auto loans, student loans, and merchant services, to name a few.

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The Not-So-Magnificent 493

The Irrelevant Investor

Five years ago, I wrote a blog post that would change the world of finance forever. I shared a chart that tried to visualize just how dominant the large stocks had gotten in the cap-weighted S&P 500. In July 2018, with every FAAMG stock hitting an all-time high, these five companies had a market capitalization that was equal to the bottom 282 names in the index.

Marketing 114
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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: September Struggles Continue

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 struggled for most of the week as the index posted its third consecutive weekly loss. The index is currently up 12.97% year to date and is 9.93% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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A Goodbye to Summer

Integrity Financial Planning

A crisp breeze bites the warm summer. Each remaining warm day is an invitation to bask in the season’s waning glow, a chance to relish the lingering warmth before autumn carries it away. Some may claim summer is defined by grand adventures and exotic vacations. But, truly, isn’t summer found in the simplest of moments? In the hum of cicadas as they serenade the sunset, the rustling of emerald leaves dancing to the rhythm of a balmy breeze, the scent of ripe peaches as they blush in t

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Underlying Inflation Gauge Falls for 14th Straight Month

Advisor Perspectives

The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for August is 3.0%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.3%, unchanged from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.3%.

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How Will Indian Stock Markets React to 2024 Elections?

Trade Brains

Do elections have any impact on the stock market? Long story short, yes! Not only the elections but also the presentation of the budget, economic policies, the popularity of the leader, economic events and other factors, can send ripples through the stock market. Before the May 2014 election, the Sensex went up by 16.6% in a span of one year and by 8% in just one month before the election results, according to an Economic Times report.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 22, 2023

Advisor Perspectives

The yield on the 10-year note ended September 22, 2023 at 4.44%, the 2-year note ended at 5.10%, and the 30-year at 4.53%.

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Arabian Petroleum IPO Review – GMP, Details, Price & More

Trade Brains

Arabian Petroleum IPO Review: Arabian Petroleum is coming up with its Initial Public Offering. This IPO will be open for subscription on September 25, 2023, and closes on September 27, 2023. This is an SME (Small and Medium-sized Enterprise) IPO, and the company is going to be listed on the NSE SME platform. In this article, we will look at the Arabian Petroleum IPO Review, analyze its strengths and weaknesses and see what unfolds.

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of September 8th, the index was at 7.010, down.007 from the previous week.

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Newjaisa Technologies IPO Review – GMP, Price, Details & More

Trade Brains

Newjaisa Technologies IPO Review : Newjaisa technologies limited is coming up with its Initial Public Offering. This is an SME (small and medium size enterprise) which is going to be listed on NSE SME. The IPO will open for subscription 25th September 2023, and closes on 27th September 2023. In this Newjaisa Technologies IPO Review, we will provide an in-depth analysis of the company, including its financials, strengths, and weaknesses.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?