Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 22, 2024
Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Below are my ten questions for 2025 (I've been doing this online every year for 20 years!). These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions. The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 18, 2024
@TBPInvictus here Our story so far : California has been raising its minimum wage for the past decade, starting at $8/hour through 2013. Many fast food workers (specifically) got bumped to $20/hour, from $16, in April (the law is very specific about who is eligible for the increase). Over that decade, with its minimum wage rising, California’s fast food industry has bested the rest of the US by leaps and bounds.
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Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 24, 2024
Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 417th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Paul G McManus. Paul is the CEO of More Clients More Fun, a marketing company that helps financial advisors conceptualize and publish their own book in a consolidated 6-week process. What's unique about Paul, though, is how he counsels advisors not to write books for the potential royalties they could earn, but rather as a means to establish themselves as an authority in the m
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 25, 2024
Podcasts Christine Benz talks with Daniel Crosby about his new book "The Soul of Wealth: 50 Reflections on Money and Meaning." (morningstar.com) Robin Powell talks with Jonathan Clements about the importance of investor behavior. (youtube.com) Katti Gatti Tassin and Henah Velez talk about the many downsides of spending too much on your car (or pickup truck).
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A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 3, 2024
The United States is the envy of the world in terms of financial markets and economic performance. Ruchir Sharma at The Financial Times outlines how this is impacting capital flows: Global investors are committing more capital to a single country than ever before in modern history. And the dollar, by some measures, trades at a higher value than at any time since the developed world abandoned fixed exchange rates 50 years.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 19, 2024
With the advantage of hindsight, the U.S. can leverage Europe's decade-long experience with crypto ETPs to avoid pitfalls and accelerate crypto adoption.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 5, 2024
We lost one of the greats this week: Art Cashin passed away Sunday at the age of 83. CNBC’s Bob Pisani did a wonderful remembrance of Art: “In the intensely competitive and often vicious world of stock market commentary, Cashin was that rarest of creatures: a man respected by all, bulls and bears, liberals and conservatives alike.” It made me want to share a few of my favorite Art Cashin stories… I first met Art when I was a newbie strategist in the 2000s.
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 18, 2024
Maintaining adequate books and records is a cornerstone of compliance for all investment advisers. While state and Federal regulations clearly outline recordkeeping requirements for areas like financials, advertisements, and trading records, there is a notable gap when it comes to documenting the delivery of services – especially financial planning services – necessary to justify the fees charged for those services.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 2, 2024
Markets How major asset classes performed in November 2024. (capitalspectator.com) Crypto Why managing a leveraged Microstrategy ($MSTR) ETF is harder than it looks. (wsj.com) Crypto ETFs continue to attract record inflows. (msn.com) Silk Road Bitcoin are in motion. (coindesk.com) Crypto is a 24/7/365 enterprise. (howardlindzon.com) Private credit The private credit industry how has its own data companies.
Carson Wealth
DECEMBER 20, 2024
Strategic charitable giving not only benefits the recipient but can also create significant tax advantages for the giver. While many people approach their financial planning with careful strategy, its easy to overlook the same level of intention when it comes to charitable giving. Lets explore several potentially effective financial planning tools that may help you maximize your impact and meet your philanthropic goals.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 27, 2024
Richard Hill, the head of Cohen & Steers real estate strategy, talks about how financial advisors should tackle commercial real estate investment next year.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 23, 2024
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 19, 2024
I have been playing a lot this year with ChatGBT, and saved some of my favorites. This is one of them: Chapter 1: The Creation of the Market In the beginning, the Trader created the Market and the Economy. The Market was formless and void, and volatility was upon the face of the indices. The Spirit of Investment hovered over the trading floor. And the Trader said, “Let there be Value,” and there was Value.
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 17, 2024
Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 416th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Fran Toler. Fran is the CEO of Toler Financial Group, an RIA based in Silver Spring, Maryland, that oversees nearly $200 million in assets under management for 280 client households. What's unique about Fran, though, is how she decided to transition from the independent broker-dealer model to a 'supported independence' corporate RIA platform in order to avoid the compliance he
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 1, 2024
Markets The S&P 500 returned 5.87% in November 2024. (on.spdji.com) It's hard to make the math on hedge funds add up. (humbledollar.com) Companies The biggest risks to Google ($GOOGL) have nothing to do with anti-trust concerns. (wsj.com) The Microstrategy ($MSTR) story will make for a great book one day. (readtrung.com) AI It looks like Twitter shareholders are going to get bailed out by their stake in xAI.
Carson Wealth
DECEMBER 5, 2024
Giving is an important part of our society. It provides us the opportunity to support causes we believe in and make a positive impact. Keep in mind, giving isn’t always about donating money. It can also include volunteering time or donating goods and resources. Here are some examples of the impact: 1 In 2023, Americans donated $557.16 billion, 67% of this giving was attributed to individuals.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 19, 2024
The $103 billion firms deputy CIO Tom Cohn discusses Ceritys investment philosophy.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 3, 2024
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Growth Stalls in October • On an annual basis, home prices rose by 3.4% in October and are projected to slow to 2.4% by the same time next year.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 30, 2024
Arthur Zeikel was a founding principal of Standard & Poor’s/InterCapital, Inc., and served as Chairman of the Board. He eventually became president of Merrill Lynch Asset Management, leading the division with a value-oriented approach and a focus on long-term fundamentals. He was an adjunct professor at NYU STern School of Business. He co-authored Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management , now in its fifth edition.
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 12, 2024
There's an old joke in the financial planning industry that the ideal client is "anyone with a pulse". For advisors just starting out, that sentiment often rings true – every prospect willing to pay for their service feels like an opportunity. However, as their firms mature, advisors often notice a divide manifesting between newer clients paying higher fees and 'legacy clients' from the early days paying discounted rates.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 5, 2024
Strategy Diversification still matters. (novelinvestor.com) How to combat confirmation bias. (safalniveshak.com) Art Cashin Art Cashin was one of a kind. (ritholtz.com) A remembrance of Art Cashin. (jaywoods.substack.com) Companies Dollar stores have had a rough 2024. (sherwood.news) Palantir ($PLTR) did not. (axios.com) Fund management BlackRock ($BLK) will soon oversee almost $600 billion of alternative assets.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 12, 2024
We also covered questions about how AI will impact the financial advice landscape, timing the next market correction, factoring an inheritance into the house-buying process and using long-dated options in a portfolio. Further Reading: All-Time Highs in the Stock Market are Usually Followed by All-Time Highs 1The most over any 10 year time frame was 344.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 17, 2024
Technology is transforming the wealth management industrynot just by automating calculations and analysis, but by empowering advisors to connect more deeply with clients.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 31, 2024
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.6% Annual Gain in October 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 11, 2024
At The Money: Optimizing Personal Health in Finance , with Phil Pearlman (December 11, 2024) Wall Street is always looking for an edge over the competition. But what if there was a giant source of overlooked alpha? We discuss how to obtain “Fitness Alpha.” Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Phil Pearlman, is former Chief Behavioral Officer at the Bank of the Ozarks and founder of the Pearl Institute.
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 9, 2024
For many financial advisory firms, ownership has traditionally been tied to equity, where advisors take on financial risk in exchange for legal ownership and a share of the firm's success. However, as the cost of equity rises and accessibility becomes more limited, firms face the challenge of inspiring ownership behavior without distributing equity.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 31, 2024
Markets The U.S. stock market is set for its best two-year performance since 1997-98. (wsj.com) After a good start, energy sector performance has faded. (axios.com) Intel ($INTC) had its worst year as a public company. (cnbc.com) Gold had its best year since 2010. (msn.com) Finance Can Treasury primary dealers handle the ongoing funding calendar? (bloomberg.com) Traditional actively managed equity mutual funds saw record outflows in 2024.
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 20, 2024
Systematic factor-driven value strategies have underperformed broad market indices (such as the S&P 500) over the past 15+ years. That has led many to question whether intangible assets, such as patents and proprietary software, are properly treated. Current accounting standards, which require companies to expenserather than capitalizetheir outlays on activities that create intangible capital, lead [.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 17, 2024
The Van Halen story illustrates that true achievement is not solely rooted in talent but is also a product of relentless dedication, strategic partnerships and an unwavering focus on ones goals.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 31, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in November Excerpt: Happy New Year! Best wishes for 2025, Bill Single-family and multi-family serious delinquencies increased in November. Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006. Freddie Mac (blue) reports that the multi-family delinquencies rate increased to 0.40% in November, up from 0.40% in October, and down from the recent peak
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