James Hendries

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Given the country’s weak economy, due in large part to stringent zero-COVID-19 measures that have led to strict and prolonged lockdowns, coupled with a debt-laden property market, authorities in Beijing and throughout the Chinese provinces will need to focus on reviving the country’s economic underpinning. At the same time, U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. During that time, the Fed held a tightening bias since they believed the housing market was stabilizing, the economy would continue to expand, and inflation risks remained.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 26, 2023

Topic 1: Economy Bull case: Consumer is resilient, the labor market is strong, wages are rising, and inflation is coming down steadily. Background: The global economy will likely slow from the upper-2% range in 2022 down to slightly above zero in 2023 ( Figure 1 ). Call us cautious bulls. Our take: The U.S. Our take: The U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 13, 2023

Lessons learned: Economic forecasts The Fed’s bark was as bad as its bite! The expectation was predicated on the view that inflation pressures would ease as global economies recalibrated to a post-pandemic environment. economy to avoid recession, and support above-average valuations.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

economy is in or about to enter recession, so we thought a piece on what a recession might mean for the stock market would be of interest. economy is not currently in recession, odds are still perhaps a coin flip or better that one may come in the next year. While Friday’s strong jobs report provides more evidence that the U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

MARCH 6, 2023

Suggesting an economy makes “no landing” makes no sense. Economic activity does not stop like an airplane eventually does, but rather the economy will settle into a steady state where growth is consistent with factors such as population and productivity. Analogies eventually break down, especially this one.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 25, 2022

economy enters a recession, the causes and potential outcome will be hotly debated. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles, and they consider a wide range of economic indicators other than just the quarterly GDP metric. If the U.S. Technical Definition.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 52

James Hendries

JULY 3, 2023

While activity remains muted at best, expectations are focused on 2024, when there is a prevailing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be finished with its rate hike campaign, and that economic conditions will be resilient enough to underpin a strong capital markets environment. With economic data continuing to suggest the U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Valuation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 3, 2022

Perhaps the market’s biggest fear has been that the Fed may overdo its tightening to fight inflation and send the economy into a painful recession, break something, or both. He acknowledged that the economy is slowing (which is what the Fed wants) and that the full effect of the rate hikes had not yet been felt. Of course, the U.S.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 98

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. The Economy Slows But Inflation Follows Too Slowly. economy grew at a 2.6%

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economy 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The challenges are many, with intense cost pressures and slowing economic growth at the top of the list. These headwinds include slower economic growth, cost pressures amid high inflation, ongoing supply chain issues, geopolitical instability in Europe and Asia, and significant currency drag from a very strong U.S. Numerous Headwinds.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

The key to getting the market back into balance is a bigger labor force, and the economy is starting to experience a larger labor force as individuals come off the sidelines and rejoin the job market. The global economy is complex, and a simplification of reality always introduces distortions, so perhaps we should zoom out a bit.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Given the lag between Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and the real economy, we have not likely seen the bottom in the housing market. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Sales Economy 98

James Hendries

JANUARY 20, 2023

These headwinds—clearly not new news—include slower global economic growth, cost pressures from still-elevated inflation, ongoing supply chain issues, currency drag from a stronger U.S. Even the economic pressures have eased some, with fourth quarter U.S. economy grew at a solid 3.2% economy grew at a solid 3.2%

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

JUNE 26, 2023

With the broad market overbought in the short-term from a technical analysis perspective and valuations elevated, stocks may be due for a pause. economy and corporate America has been impressive. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. At the same time, the resilience of the U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 30, 2022

The numerous challenges last quarter included a slowing economy, intensifying inflation pressures, ongoing global supply chain disruptions, and a surging U.S. Still, corporate America delivered the type of upside investors have grown accustomed to in much easier economic environments. The numbers.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 11, 2022

The British pound had been weakening for some time amid a backdrop of dollar strength and a poor economic outlook as the U.K. If an economy needs to see inflation easing, it makes little sense to stimulate the economy through tax cuts while tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates. s rising current account deficit.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Government 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

However, as Fed rate hikes flow into the real economy, the risk of a recession increases, which should help bring down yields. economic growth. More specifically, it reflects how the Fed intends to stimulate or slow economic growth by cutting or raising its policy rate. The shape of the yield curve is not normal. The shape of U.S

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Economic and corporate data support the initial strong reads on holiday retail sales despite the macro headwinds, reinforcing the idea that today’s consumer is in a better position than usual at this point in the business cycle. Faster than expected deceleration in inflation and the economy avoiding a recession altogether (i.e.,

Retail 52

Retail Marketing Marketing Sales 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 31, 2023

economy is only facing a growth scare and muddles through on the back of a resilient consumer who is flush with cash. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. All index data from Bloomberg.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

As we know from historical precedents, when the Fed aggressively raises rates, economic growth slows or outright contracts, which is the Fed’s goal. High quality bonds tend to perform relatively well during economic slowdowns and/or contractions. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Marketing Marketing Assets 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

The economy is now employing more workers in temporary help services than ever before, and this could be a cause for concern. Businesses often begin cutting these jobs during periods of economic uncertainty and an increasingly large number of individuals in these roles is inherently unstable for the labor market.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

The news on the economy and corporate profits hasn’t been great lately, but thanks to low expectations, it’s been good enough to push stocks nicely higher. economy into recession, causing unemployment to rise and slashing corporate profits. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Growth stocks typically trade at higher valuations on the premise that an investor is buying a company now that will grow to be a much larger company, producing higher levels of cash and profit in the future. Increasing the discount rate, which lowers the present value of future cash flows, and company valuations.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

due to expectations of slowing economic growth. We think the move lower in yields may be a bit premature as we expect the economy to stay out of a recession this year. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Taxes Investment Advisor 52

James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

Market participants remained on edge due to high inflation and the risk that the Federal Reserve over-tightens monetary policy to combat it, potentially sending the economy into recession. Although energy prices came down some, weakening economic data and the lack of a cease-fire in Ukraine offset the modest gas price relief.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Taxes Investment Advisor 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio. All index data from Bloomberg.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 7, 2022

economy following disappointing August inflation data was the top cause of the market’s struggles. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-toearnings valuation ratio. Value Target to 4,000-4,100 from 4,300-4,400.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Taxes Investment Advisor Asset Allocation 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

And we’d sort of turn that into a valuation business. MILLER: Well actually I thought, leading up to the great financial crisis, I thought to myself, we’re going to be out of business within a couple of years because nobody wanted an independent valuation. What are the, you know, I’d literally have it in my handheld.

Sales 130

Sales Numbers Taxes Marketing 130

James Hendries

JULY 6, 2022

While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards and prior valuation targets no longer appear achievable, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent. economy will avoid recession. Remember stock valuations are inversely correlated to inflation and interest rates.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 52

James Hendries

JULY 21, 2022

A global economy that was already vulnerable to inflation from supply chain disruptions, tight labor markets, excess stimulus, and loose monetary policy came under more pressure when Russian aggression in Ukraine added sharply rising commodity prices and put Europe on the brink of recession. In the midst of the storm. If the U.S. If the U.S.

Management 52

Management Marketing Marketing Valuation 52

James Hendries

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

While concerns about the debt ceiling have been increasing, markets, businesses, and the economy are likely to see only minimal impact until we are days, or maybe a few weeks, from the “x date,” the date on which the federal government will no longer be able to meet all its obligations, likely in the summer or early fall.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 52

Brown Advisory

FEBRUARY 7, 2017

In the first instance, the markets apparently concluded that Britain’s exit from the European Union would not have a material negative impact on economic growth after all. it will be challenging to gauge the effect on trade generally and on the domestic economy specifically. inflation and overall growth. company.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Management Portfolio 52

Brown Advisory

FEBRUARY 7, 2017

In the first instance, the markets apparently concluded that Britain’s exit from the European Union would not have a material negative impact on economic growth after all. it will be challenging to gauge the effect on trade generally and on the domestic economy specifically. inflation and overall growth. company.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Management Portfolio 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

With the economy exhibiting low growth and generationally high inflation, these additional factors point to the House very likely flipping with some possibility of a wave election for Republicans. Policy itself can be difficult to forecast, and economic factors often overwhelm the impact on markets. All index data from FactSet.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Government Banking 52