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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 171
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Podcast links: the economics of innovation

Abnormal Returns

Economics Margaret Hoover talks with Felix Salmon author of "The Phoenix Economy: Work, Life, and Money in the New Not Normal." conversationswithtyler.com) Cardiff Garcia talks about the economics of innovation with Heidi Williams and Caleb Watney. Aswath Damodaran about stock valuations, market efficiency, and the rise of AI.

Economics 130
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Market Commentary: Carson Investment Research Looks at the Year Ahead

Carson Wealth

Carson Investment Research 2024 Market Outlook: Seeing Eye to Eye We are targeting a total return of 11-13% for the S&P 500 Index in 2024 and 4-6% for the Bloomberg U.S. Market participants, strategists, policymakers, and the economy rarely saw eye to eye. Aggregate Bond Index. What a strange year we had in 2023.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 290
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Wednesday links: the power of incentives

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Every investment strategy has multiple 'points of failure.' axios.com) Venture capital Why more markdowns are coming to venture capital portfolio valuations. news.crunchbase.com) China China's economy is now experiencing deflation. economist.com) Economy A re-accelerating economy risks higher base inflation.

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Monday links: old finance articles

Abnormal Returns

(allstarcharts.com) And valuations are still attractive. awealthofcommonsense.com) Joachim Klement, "The people who are committed to sin stock investing are a small minority and are unlikely to shift the consensus away from the ESG investing trend." wsj.com) Poland is planning to build nuclear power plants.

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The Economy Continues to Look Good

Bell Investment Advisors

Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the domestic economy grew at an inflation-adjusted pace of 2.4% The most economically sensitive industries saw the strongest stock price gains. The low interest rates that justified higher stock valuations are not so low anymore. A report from the U.S. during the second quarter of 2023.

Economy 52