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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. At the same time, value and international stocks continue to lag, trading as if the economy is already in the depths of a serious recession.

Economics 171
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Financial Market Round-Up – Jan’24

Truemind Capital

Most of the time, even the winners account for very low weight in the overall assets, resulting in miniscule contribution to the portfolio returns. For example, a stock rising by 100% in a year, if had a weightage of 1% in the overall assets, adds only 1% more return to the portfolio.

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Financial Market Round-Up – Jul’23

Truemind Capital

Equity Market Insights : Where is the recession? Despite being widely expected for many months, the recession has yet to materialize in the US and other developed economies. The recent rally in the market has made the valuations more expensive compared to historical standards.

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Financial Market Round-Up – Apr’23

Truemind Capital

Equity Market Insights: The last quarter has seen one of the major shakeups from the prevailing easy situation over the last decade for the global economies. Thankfully, the Governments intervened to avoid major spillover effects on the overall economy. The Adani saga also aggravated volatility.

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Tuesday links: a healthy accounting system

Abnormal Returns

Markets How major asset classes performed in October 2020. capitalspectator.com) Don't be surprised to see the stock market rally before the economy bottoms out. every.to) Q3 saw big drops in startup valuations. klementoninvesting.substack.com) Economy The Fed is most hurting the middle class through rising rates.

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Should You Worry About “Recession” Risk?

Discipline Funds

On one side you have optimists who have been saying that the US economy remains robust and on the other side you have pessimists who are worried about recession and a potential 2008 scenario. In our view we’re still in the “muddle through” camp as it pertains to the economy.

Economy 92
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Disciplined Outlook – Where Are We Now?

Discipline Funds

But in reality the economy doesn’t look so much like a “cycle” It looks more like a line from the bottom left to the top right with occasional shocks that create the illusion of a regular cycle. In other words, it was the inevitable overreaction and blow off top from the 10+ year bull market that was already in motion.