Remove 2025 Remove Economy Remove Investments
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Ten Economic Questions for 2025

Calculated Risk

Below are my ten questions for 2025 (I've been doing this online every year for 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. There is significant uncertainty as to fiscal and regulatory policy in 2025. Q4-over-Q4 in 2025.

Economics 290
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Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Q4-over-Q4 in 2025. How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2024, and that a soft landing was the likely outcome.

Economy 173
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Housing Starts and Recessions

Calculated Risk

Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Sales 309
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What Are the Best & Worst-Case Tariff Scenarios?

The Big Picture

I discussed much of this in my Q2 2025 RWM client quarterly call on April 5. Some damage gets done to the US economy and trade relations. On the corporate side, companies hold off on big CapEx spending, building new plants, investments, and hiring. Before 2025 ends, a mild recession begins.

Economics 317
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“Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition

The Big Picture

and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. In “ How Not To Invest ” (coming March 18!)

Banking 345
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Recession Watch Metrics

Calculated Risk

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. from 459 thousand SAAR in February 2025.

Sales 241
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AIA: "Billings continue to decline at architecture firms"

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI April 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.2 for the month. Although the U.S.

Economy 162