Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. Trade should not be a weapon.

Sales 214

Sales Economy Economics Taxes 214

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 67, 2025. Participants observed, however, that the ultimate extent of changes to government policy and their effects on the economy was highly uncertain. emphasis added

Economics 207

Economics Government Risk Management Economy 207

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

From the AIA: ABI April 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.2 economy is not officially in a recession at this time, many architecture firms are reporting recession-like business conditions. for the month. Although the U.S.

Economy 162

Economy Numbers Economics Investments 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, the administration might reverse many of the tariffs (we've seen that before), and Congress might take back complete authority for tariffs. Also, perhaps these tariffs are not enough to topple the economy. from 459 thousand SAAR in February 2025.

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investments 241

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 5, 2025 Question #2 for 2025: How much will job growth slow in 2025? Or will the economy lose jobs? Question #1 for 2025: How much will the economy grow in 2025? Will there be a recession in 2025? Monday: No major economic releases scheduled.

Economy 147

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady.”. million in 2025 and more than 5 million in 2026,” Yun said. Yun predicts the median existing-home price will rise to $410,700 in 2025 and to $420,000 in 2026. in 2025 but then move higher to 6.1%

Sales 173

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 173

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 3, 2025

February 2025 The S&P 500 returned -1.30% in February 2025. on.spdji.com) How major asset classes performed in February 2025. standard.co.uk) Economy The good producing sector is flatlining. capitalspectator.com) Strategy A review of the times when things looked pretty bleak for the stock market.

Media 162

Media Government Economy Assets 162

The Big Picture

APRIL 16, 2025

For laughs, in Slate Plus , we discuss Hugh Grant, HOAs, whether leaf blowers are a necessary evil, and why adult males in suits should not wear their high school backpacks on subways… Source : The Economys One Guy Problem Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers Slate, April 12, 2025 The post Slate: Economics on a Whim… appeared (..)

Economics 179

Economics Economy Investing Investments 179

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 30, 2025

morningstar.com) Apple In 2025, what does it mean to be a 'fan' of Apple ($AAPL)? axios.com) Economy Q1 2025 GDP shrank 0.3%. (joesaluzzi.substack.com) SPACs are bouncing back. news.crunchbase.com) Fund management Target-date funds do what they say they do. morningstar.com) How tail-risk ETFs are supposed to work.

Startup 162

Startup Financial Advisor Media Government 162

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

and other big firms sent out their calls for 2024, a consensus took shape: After surging more than 20% as artificial intelligence breakthroughs unleashed a tech-stock boom and the economy kept defying the doomsayers, the S&P 500 Index would likely scratch out only a modest gain. So as strategists at Bank of America Corp.,

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

More contacts were optimistic about the outlook for 2025 than were pessimistic about it, though contacts in several Districts expressed concerns that changes in immigration and tariff policy could negatively affect the economy. The spread of avian flu reduced egg supplies and pushed up prices. Energy activity was mixed.

Economics 162

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 28, 2025. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 20.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Government 221

Government Economy Marketing Marketing 221

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 17, 2025

techcrunch.com) UnitedHealth ($UNH) slashed 2025 earnings guidance. dollar as the centerpiece of the global economy. noahpinion.blog) Economy What is seemingly so wrong with BMW's South Carolina manufacturing operation? (on.ft.com) Still no sign that traders are giving up on leveraged ETFs. wsj.com) Where the U.S.

Medicine 162

Medicine Math Economy Manufacturing 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 2829, 2025. Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate. emphasis added

Economy 147

Economy Economics Numbers Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 5, 2024

wired.com) Economy Heavy truck sales increased in November. abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Pantone declared "Mocha Mousse" as the color for 2025. (spyglass.org) The launch of ESPN 45 years really was a long shot. nymag.com) Cybersecurity China likely has the ability to listen to your phone calls. Well, you should. apnews.com)

Retail 182

Retail Media Economy Sales 182

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 6, 2025

statsignificant.com) Economy Recessions have some permanent effects. calculatedriskblog.com) Policy volatility can't be great for the economy. abnormalreturns.com) The 2025 UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook is out! (hollywoodreporter.com) How long should you watch a show before giving up? Well, you should.

Economy 147

Economy Media Management Investments 147

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 23, 2024

Markets Higher for longer is the theme going into 2025. fa-mag.com) Economy Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'What will happen with house prices in 2025?' calculatedriskblog.com) Ten risks for 2025 including the introduction of tariffs. apolloacademy.com) There's large cap growth stocks in the U.S.,

Advertising 147

Advertising Media Banking Economy 147

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 16, 2025

We also answered questions about 2025 retirement account limits, Coast FIRE strategies, when to take money off the table from the stock market, how to account for pension and Social Security income during retirement and how other economies impact the U.S.

Retirement 140

Retirement Accounting Economy Marketing 140

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 10, 2025

sherwood.news) RIP Venu Sports: 2024-2025. russell-clark.com) Economy The December NFP reported showed strong growth and a 4.1% russell-clark.com) Economy The December NFP reported showed strong growth and a 4.1% economy continues to slow. (ft.com) Streaming How many ads do streaming services actually show?

Economy 162

Economy Media Economics Sales 162

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 10, 2024

theatlantic.com) Economy Outside of shelter, inflation is still pretty quiescent. capitalspectator.com) Ten susprising facts about the labor economy including 'Work continues to untether from the workplace.' sherwood.news) Content that is entering the public domain in 2025. Well, you should. aftermath.site)

Retail 147

Retail Economy Media Assets 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 24, 2023

Real GDP growth over 2024 and 2025 was projected to be below the staff's estimate of potential output growth. The unemployment rate was forecast to increase this year, to peak next year, and then to start declining gradually in 2025.

Economics 347

Economics Banking Economy Marketing 347

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) TSMC's ($TSM) Arizona plant is on track for 2025 production. ft.com) Economy The Fed is going to have to cut rates to stick the soft landing. sherwood.news) What does the collapse in dollar store sales tell us about the economy? nytimes.com) How pour-over coffee got so good. unemployment rate.

Financial Advising 287

Financial Advising Media Valuation Economy 287

Your Richest Life

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

Even though 2025 has only just begun, there are already big changes unfolding that could impact your wallet. That decision is a departure from their announcement at the September meeting to cut rates a full percentage point in 2025. Future cuts will depend on inflation and the strength of the economy as the year goes on.

Financial Market 52

Financial Market Marketing Marketing Medicine 52

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 9, 2025

wsj.com) Economy Still no sign of a meaningful uptick in weekly initial unemployment claims. bonddad.blogspot.com) A risk for 2025 is the re-acceleration of inflation. sherwood.news) What you need to know about 2025's Girl Scout cookie season. (econbrowser.com) Breakeven inflation in the UK is notably higher than in the U.S.

Media 162

Media Economy Portfolio Management 162

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 4, 2024

papers.ssrn.com) Taxes No matter who is President in 2025, taxes will be at the top of the agenda. sherwood.news) Economy The U.S. economy is on shakier ground. ft.com) The labor economy has slowed down to pre-pandemic levels. (morningstar.com) Paid sick leave mandates help employees better maintain work-life balance.

Financial Advising 274

Financial Advising Startup Economy Taxes 274

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2025

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI at 49% March 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March after two consecutive months of expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. in February.

Manufacturing 127

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 127

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

February 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The PMI was at 50.3% in February, down from 50.9% in January.

Manufacturing 113

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 113

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2024

Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed close to FOMC expectations. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2024 2025 2026 Mar 2024 2.0 Statement here. Here are the projections. Dec 2023 1.2 The unemployment rate was at 3.9% Dec 2023 4.0

Banking 286

Banking Economy Marketing Marketing 286

Dear Mr. Market

APRIL 2, 2025

Read more : March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2025 Large Cap Region: The Heavyweights Clash This years large-cap region includes some of the markets biggest names. Eli Lilly , on the other hand, boasts a robust pipeline and solid earnings, making it a relatively safer and more predictable investment for the remainder of 2025.

Investing 78

Investing Investments Valuation Advertising 78

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 11, 2024

johnwallstreet.com) Economy The November CPI came with a 2.7% bonddad.blogspot.com) Is the Fed going to be satisfied with inflation going into 2025? (huddleup.substack.com) Will an additional team on the track dilute Formula One? over the past twelve months. calculatedriskblog.com) Shelter is still a contributor to consumer inflation.

Startup 162

Startup Retail Media Economy 162

Abnormal Returns

MAY 11, 2025

humbledollar.com) 2025 is not that unusual stock-market wise. marginalrevolution.com) Economy How much economic activity got pulled forward due to tariffs? Markets The impact of macro events can take longer than you think. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Why gold has a unique reputation among investors.

Marketing 147

Marketing Marketing Economics Media 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

April 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the second month in a row , following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The PMI was at 48.7% percent, 1.7

Manufacturing 127

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 127

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

Every year brings changes in tax rules, and 2025 is no exception. More Money Protected from Taxes Good news for your walletyou can shield more of your income from taxes in 2025. Smart Ways to Grow Your Investments Here’s some welcome news for investorsthe tax benefits for long-term investments continue in 2025.

Taxes 64

Taxes Retirement Tax Planning Planning 64

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed better than the FOMC expected, and inflation was slightly below expectations. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 June 2023 0.7 For review, here are the June projections.

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2023

Real GDP growth over 2024 and 2025 was projected to be below the staff's estimate of potential output growth. The unemployment rate was forecast to increase this year, peak next year, and remain near that level through 2025. In 2025, both total and core PCE price inflation were expected to be close to 2 percent.

Economics 305

Economics Banking Communication Economy 305

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 22, 2025

priceactionlab.com) How portfolio diversification has worked in 2025. nytimes.com) Economy Regional Fed reports are uniformly negative. Markets Gold is a crowded trade. sherwood.news) Why the move in gold matters. morningstar.com) Bonds Treasury bonds have never been risk free. bloomberg.com) Are bonds still a good diversifier?

Startup 162

Startup Sales Media Economy 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21, 2025. Treasury yields moved lower on softer consumer spending data as consumers are feeling somewhat less upbeat about the economy and job market.

Economy 147

Economy Sales Marketing Marketing 147